Predicting aggressive disease and poor outcome in endometrial cancer using preoperative [18F]FDG PET primary tumor radiomics
Abstract
Purpose
To develop a [ 18 F]fluorodeoxyglucose ([ 18 F]FDG) positron emission tomography (PET) primary tumor radiomic model for predicting disease-specific survival (DSS), and compare it with conventional PET markers in a large endometrial cancer cohort.
Methods
Radiomic features were extracted from preoperative [ 18 F]FDG PET scans of 489 endometrial cancer patients using a standardized uptake value (SUV) threshold > 2.5 to define primary metabolic tumor volumes (MTVs). A second reader extracted features in 154/489 patients, in which intraclass correlation coefficients (ICCs) were calculated. Radiomic features with ICCs > 0.75 were retained and ComBat harmonization was applied to reduce scanner/protocol effects on the extracted features. Patients were divided into training ( n = 343) and test ( n = 146) sets. A radiomic DSS score (R dss ) was developed in the training set using least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) Cox regression. A combined model (C dss ), incorporating R dss , PET positive lymph nodes (LN PET ) and preoperative histology risk was constructed using multivariable Cox hazard analyses. Prediction performances were assessed by comparing areas under time-dependent receiver operating characteristic curves (tdROCs AUCs) for R dss , C dss , and conventional PET markers: SUV max , SUV mean , MTV, tumor lesion glycolysis (TLG) and LN PET .
Results
In the test set, AUCs for 2- and 5-year DSS were higher for R dss (0.855, 0.720) compared to SUV max (0.548, 0.572) and SUV mean (0.549, 0.554) ( p ≤ 0.04 for all), while similar to MTV (0.863, 0.696), TLG (0.814, 0.672) and LN PET (0.802, 0.626) ( p ≥ 0.12 for all). C dss predicted 2-year DSS with AUC of 0.909 in the test set, outperforming all conventional imaging markers ( p ≤ 0.04 for all) except MTV ( p = 0.29). For 5-year DSS, C dss (AUC: 0.817) outperformed all conventional imaging markers, including MTV (AUC ≤ 0.696, p ≤ 0.05, for all).
Conclusion
R dss predicts short-term survival with high accuracy, outperforming tumor SUV max/mean , but not MTV, TLG and LN PET . The combined C dss model yields high accuracy for predicting both short- and long-term survival, outperforming all conventional PET imaging markers.