Predicting aggressive disease and poor outcome in endometrial cancer using preoperative [18F]FDG PET primary tumor radiomics
Abstract
Purpose
To develop a [
18
F]fluorodeoxyglucose ([
18
F]FDG) positron emission tomography (PET) primary tumor radiomic model for predicting disease-specific survival (DSS), and compare it with conventional PET markers in a large endometrial cancer cohort.
Methods
Radiomic features were extracted from preoperative [
18
F]FDG PET scans of 489 endometrial cancer patients using a standardized uptake value (SUV) threshold > 2.5 to define primary metabolic tumor volumes (MTVs). A second reader extracted features in 154/489 patients, in which intraclass correlation coefficients (ICCs) were calculated. Radiomic features with ICCs > 0.75 were retained and ComBat harmonization was applied to reduce scanner/protocol effects on the extracted features. Patients were divided into training (
n
= 343) and test (
n
= 146) sets. A radiomic DSS score (R
dss
) was developed in the training set using least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) Cox regression. A combined model (C
dss
), incorporating R
dss
, PET positive lymph nodes (LN
PET
) and preoperative histology risk was constructed using multivariable Cox hazard analyses. Prediction performances were assessed by comparing areas under time-dependent receiver operating characteristic curves (tdROCs AUCs) for R
dss
, C
dss
, and conventional PET markers: SUV
max
, SUV
mean
, MTV, tumor lesion glycolysis (TLG) and LN
PET
.
Results
In the test set, AUCs for 2- and 5-year DSS were higher for R
dss
(0.855, 0.720) compared to SUV
max
(0.548, 0.572) and SUV
mean
(0.549, 0.554) (
p
≤ 0.04 for all), while similar to MTV (0.863, 0.696), TLG (0.814, 0.672) and LN
PET
(0.802, 0.626) (
p
≥ 0.12 for all). C
dss
predicted 2-year DSS with AUC of 0.909 in the test set, outperforming all conventional imaging markers (
p
≤ 0.04 for all) except MTV (
p
= 0.29). For 5-year DSS, C
dss
(AUC: 0.817) outperformed all conventional imaging markers, including MTV (AUC ≤ 0.696,
p
≤ 0.05, for all).
Conclusion
R
dss
predicts short-term survival with high accuracy, outperforming tumor SUV
max/mean
, but not MTV, TLG and LN
PET
. The combined C
dss
model yields high accuracy for predicting both short- and long-term survival, outperforming all conventional PET imaging markers.