JNCI: Journal of the National Cancer Institute

Outdoor air pollution exposure and uterine cancer incidence in the Sister Study

Abstract Background Outdoor air pollution is a ubiquitous exposure that includes endocrine-disrupting and carcinogenic compounds that may contribute to the risk of hormone-sensitive outcomes such as uterine cancer. However, there is limited evidence about the relationship between outdoor air pollution and uterine cancer incidence. Methods We investigated the associations of residential exposure to particulate matter less than 2.5 µm in aerodynamic diameter (PM2.5) and nitrogen dioxide (NO2) with uterine cancer among 33 417 Sister Study participants with an intact uterus at baseline (2003-2009). Annual average air pollutant concentrations were estimated at participants’ geocoded primary residential addresses using validated spatiotemporal models. Cox proportional hazards models were used to estimate hazard ratios and 95% confidence intervals for the association between time-varying 12-month PM2.5 (µg/m3) and NO2 (parts per billion; ppb) averages and uterine cancer incidence. Results Over a median follow-up period of 9.8 years, 319 incident uterine cancer cases were identified. A 5-ppb increase in NO2 was associated with a 23% higher incidence of uterine cancer (hazard ratio = 1.23, 95% confidence interval = 1.04 to 1.46), especially among participants living in urban areas (hazard ratio = 1.53, 95% confidence interval = 1.13 to 2.07), but  PM2.5 was not associated with increased uterine cancer incidence. Conclusion In this large US cohort, NO2, a marker of vehicular traffic exposure, was associated with a higher incidence of uterine cancer. These findings expand the scope of health effects associated with air pollution, supporting the need for policy and other interventions designed to reduce air pollutant exposure.

Adiposity distribution and risks of 12 obesity-related cancers: a Mendelian randomization analysis

Abstract Introduction There is convincing evidence that overall adiposity increases the risks of several cancers. Whether the distribution of adiposity plays a similar role is unclear. Methods We used 2-sample Mendelian randomization (MR) to examine causal relationships of 5 adiposity distribution traits (abdominal subcutaneous adipose tissue (ASAT); visceral adipose tissue (VAT); gluteofemoral adipose tissue (GFAT); liver fat; and pancreas fat) with the risks of 12 obesity-related cancers (endometrial, ovarian, breast, colorectal, pancreas, multiple myeloma, liver, kidney (renal cell), thyroid, gallbladder, esophageal adenocarcinoma, and meningioma). Results Sample size across all genome-wide association studies (GWAS) ranged from 8407 to 728 896 (median: 57 249). We found evidence that higher genetically predicted ASAT increased the risks of endometrial cancer, liver cancer, and esophageal adenocarcinoma (odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) per standard deviation (SD) higher ASAT = 1.79 (1.18 to 2.71), 3.83 (1.39 to 10.53), and 2.34 (1.15 to 4.78), respectively). Conversely, we found evidence that higher genetically predicted GFAT decreased the risks of breast cancer and meningioma (ORs and 95% CIs per SD higher genetically predicted GFAT = 0.77 (0.62 to 0.97) and 0.53 (0.32 to 0.90), respectively). We also found evidence for an effect of higher genetically predicted VAT and liver fat on increased liver cancer risk (ORs and 95% CIs per SD higher genetically predicted adiposity trait = 4.29 (1.41 to 13.07) and 4.09 (2.29 to 7.28), respectively). Discussion Our analyses provide novel insights into the relationship between adiposity distribution and cancer risk. These insights highlight the potential importance of adipose tissue distribution alongside maintaining a healthy weight for cancer prevention.

Increasing power in screening trials by testing control-arm specimens: application to multicancer detection screening

Abstract Background Cancer screening trials have required large sample sizes and long time-horizons to demonstrate cancer mortality reductions, the primary goal of cancer screening. We examine assumptions and potential power gains from exploiting information from testing control-arm specimens, which we call the “intended effect” (IE) analysis that we explain in detail herein. The IE analysis is particularly suited to tests that can be conducted on stored specimens in the control arm, such as stored blood for multicancer detection (MCD) tests. Methods We simulated hypothetical MCD screening trials to compare power and sample size for the standard vs IE analysis. Under two assumptions that we detail herein, we projected the IE analysis for 3 existing screening trials (National Lung Screening Trial [NLST], Minnesota Colon Cancer Control Study [MINN-FOBT-A], and Prostate, Lung, Colorectal, Ovarian Cancer Screening Trial—colorectal component [PLCO-CRC]). Results Compared with the standard analysis for the 3 existing trials, the IE design could have reduced cancer-specific mortality P values 6-fold (NLST), 33-fold (MINN-FOBT-A), or 260 000-fold (PLCO-CRC) or, alternately, reduced sample size (90% power) by 25% (NLST), 47% (MINN-FOBT-A), or 63% (PLCO-CRC). For potential MCD trial designs requiring 100 000 subjects per arm to achieve 90% power for multicancer mortality for the standard analysis, the IE analysis achieves 90% power for only 37 500-50 000 per arm, depending on assumptions concerning control-arm test-positives. Conclusions Testing stored specimens in the control arm of screening trials to conduct the IE analysis could substantially increase power to reduce sample size or accelerate trials and could provide particularly strong power gains for MCD tests.

Associations of self-identified race and ethnicity and genetic ancestry with mortality among cancer survivors

Abstract Self-identified race and ethnicity (SIRE) and genetic ancestry are potentially associated with disparities in health outcomes; however, independent effects of SIRE and genetic ancestry on mortality in cancer survivors including when adjusting for multiple risk factors are understudied. Among 23 445 cancer survivors in the Prostate, Lung, Colorectal, and Ovarian Screening Trial, SIRE was associated with mortality among prostate, colorectal, lung, ovarian, and breast cancer survivors; genetic ancestry was associated with mortality among prostate, colorectal, and breast cancer survivors. Associations were strong when adjusting for age at cancer diagnosis, sex, and tumor characteristics but attenuated when adjusting for individual-level factors and population-level socioeconomic status. For example, mortality risk was higher among Black vs White prostate cancer survivors and African genetic ancestry vs European genetic ancestry, but associations were attenuated after multilevel adjustment. Results suggest that SIRE and genetic ancestry do not solely reflect biologic variation; rather, social factors may drive mortality differences by SIRE and genetic ancestry.

Long-acting, progestin-based contraceptives and risk of breast, gynecological, and other cancers

Abstract Background Use of long-acting, reversible contraceptives has increased over the past 20 years, but an understanding of how they could influence cancer risk is limited. Methods We conducted a nested case-control study among a national cohort of Australian women (n = 176 601 diagnosed with cancer between 2004 and 2013; 882 999 matched control individuals) to investigate the associations between the levonorgestrel intrauterine system, etonogestrel implants, depot-medroxyprogesterone acetate and cancer risk and compared these results with the oral contraceptive pill. We used conditional logistic regression to estimate odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI). Results Levonorgestrel intrauterine system and etonogestrel implant use was associated with breast cancer risk (OR = 1.26, 95% CI = 1.21 to 1.31, and OR = 1.24, 95% CI = 1.17 to 1.32, respectively), but depot-medroxyprogesterone acetate was not, except when used for 5 or more years (OR = 1.23, 95% CI = 0.95 to 1.59). Reduced risks were seen for levonorgestrel intrauterine system (≥1 years of use) in endometrial cancer (OR = 0.80, 95% CI = 0.65 to 0.99), ovarian cancer (OR = 0.71, 95% CI = 0.57 to 0.88), and cervical cancer (OR = 0.62, 95% CI = 0.51 to 0.75); for etonogestrel implant in endometrial cancer (OR = 0.21, 95% CI = 0.13 to 0.34) and ovarian cancer (OR = 0.76, 95% CI = 0.57 to 1.02); and for depot-medroxyprogesterone acetate in endometrial cancer (OR = 0.21, 95% CI = 0.13 to 0.34). Although levonorgestrel intrauterine system, etonogestrel implant and depot-medroxyprogesterone acetate were all associated with increased cancer risk overall, for etonogestrel implant, the risk returned to baseline after cessation, similar to the oral contraceptive pill. We were unable to adjust for all potential confounders, but sensitivity analyses suggested that adjusting for parity, smoking, and obesity would not have materially changed our findings. Conclusion Long-acting, reversible contraceptives have similar cancer associations to the oral contraceptive pill (reduced endometrial and ovarian cancer risks and short-term increased breast cancer risk). This information may be helpful to women and their physicians when discussing contraception options.

Evaluating the performance of the Breast and Ovarian Analysis of Disease Incidence Algorithm model in predicting 10-year breast cancer risks in UK Biobank

Abstract Background The Breast and Ovarian Analysis of Disease Incidence Algorithm (BOADICEA) model predicts breast cancer risk using cancer family history, epidemiological, and genetic data. We evaluated its validity in a large prospective cohort. Methods We assessed model calibration, discrimination and risk classification ability in 217 885 women (6838 incident breast cancers) aged 40-70 years of self-reported White ethnicity with no previous cancer from the UK Biobank. Age-specific risk classification was assessed using relative risk thresholds equivalent to the absolute lifetime risk categories of less than 17%, 17%-30%, and 30% or more, recommended by the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence guidelines. We predicted 10-year risks using BOADICEA v.6 considering cancer family history, questionnaire-based risk factors, a 313–single nucleotide polymorphisms polygenic score, and pathogenic variants. Mammographic density data were not available. Results The polygenic risk score was the most discriminative risk factor (area under the curve [AUC] = 0.65). Discrimination was highest when considering all risk factors (AUC = 0.66). The model was well calibrated overall (expected-to-observed ratio = 0.99, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.97 to 1.02; calibration slope = 0.99, 95% CI = 0.99 to 1.00), and in deciles of predicted risks. Discrimination was similar in women aged younger and older than 50 years. There was some underprediction in women aged younger than 50 years (expected-to-observed ratio = 0.89, 95% CI = 0.84 to 0.94; calibration slope = 0.96, 95% CI = 0.94 to 0.97), which was explained by the higher breast cancer incidence in UK Biobank than the UK population incidence in this age group. The model classified 87.2%, 11.4%, and 1.4% of women in relative risk categories less than 1.6, 1.6-3.1, and at least 3.1, identifying 25.6% of incident breast cancer patients in category relative risk of at least 1.6. Conclusion BOADICEA, implemented in CanRisk (www.canrisk.org), provides valid 10-year breast cancer risk, which can facilitate risk-stratified screening and personalized breast cancer risk management.

Genomic instability in non–breast or ovarian malignancies of individuals with germline pathogenic variants in BRCA1/2

Abstract Background Individuals with germline pathogenic variants in BRCA1 or BRCA2 are at a high risk of breast and ovarian carcinomas with BRCA1/2 deficiency and homologous recombination deficiency that can be detected by analysis of genome-wide genomic instability features such as large-scale state transitions, telomeric allelic imbalances, and genomic loss of heterozygosity. Malignancies with homologous recombination deficiency are more sensitive to platinum-based therapies and poly(ADP-ribose) polymerase inhibitors. We investigated the fraction of non–breast or ovarian malignancies that have BRCA1/2 deficiency and genomic instability features. Methods The full tumor history of a large, historical, clinic-based, consecutive cohort of 2965 individuals with germline pathogenic variants in BRCA1/2 was retrieved from the Dutch nationwide pathology databank (Palga). In total, 169 non–breast or ovarian malignancies were collected and analyzed using targeted next-generation sequencing and shallow whole-genome sequencing to determine somatic second-hit alterations and genomic instabilities indicative of homologous recombination deficiency, respectively. Results BRCA1/2 deficiency was detected in 27% (21/79) and 23% (21/90) of 20 different types of non–breast or ovarian malignancies in individuals with germline pathogenic variants in BRCA1 and BRCA2, respectively. These malignancies had a higher genomic instability score than BRCA1- or BRCA2-proficient malignancies (P < .001 and P < .001, respectively). Conclusions BRCA1/2 deficiency and genomic instability features were found in 27% and 23% of a broad spectrum of non–breast or ovarian malignancies in individuals with germline pathogenic variants in BRCA1 and BRCA2, respectively. Evaluation of the effectiveness of poly(ADP-ribose) polymerase inhibitors in these individuals should be focused on tumors with a confirmed absence of a wild-type allele.

Retracted and Replaced: Increasing power in screening trials by testing control-arm specimens: application to multicancer detection screening

Abstract Background Cancer screening trials have required large sample sizes and long time-horizons to demonstrate cancer mortality reductions, the primary goal of cancer screening. We examine assumptions and potential power gains from exploiting information from testing control-arm specimens, which we call the “intended effect” (IE) analysis that we explain in detail herein. The IE analysis is particularly suited to tests that can be conducted on stored specimens in the control arm, such as stored blood for multicancer detection (MCD) tests. Methods We simulated hypothetical MCD screening trials to compare power and sample size for the standard vs IE analysis. Under two assumptions that we detail herein, we projected the IE analysis for 3 existing screening trials (National Lung Screening Trial [NLST], Minnesota Colon Cancer Control Study [MINN-FOBT-A], and Prostate, Lung, Colorectal, Ovarian Cancer Screening Trial—colorectal component [PLCO-CRC]). Results Compared with the standard analysis for the 3 existing trials, the IE design could have reduced cancer-specific mortality P values 5-fold (NLST), 33-fold (MINN-FOBT-A), or 14 160-fold (PLCO-CRC) or, alternately, reduced sample size (90% power) by 26% (NLST), 48% (MINN-FOBT-A), or 59% (PLCO-CRC). For potential MCD trial designs requiring 100 000 subjects per arm to achieve 90% power for multicancer mortality for the standard analysis, the IE analysis achieves 90% power for only 37 500-50 000 per arm, depending on assumptions concerning control-arm test-positives. Conclusions Testing stored specimens in the control arm of screening trials to conduct the IE analysis could substantially increase power to reduce sample size or accelerate trials and could provide particularly strong power gains for MCD tests.

The Diverse Aspects of Uterine Serous Cancer: an NCI workshop on the status of and opportunities for advancement of research

Abstract The marked increase in the incidence and mortality associated with endometrial cancer over the past 2 decades is driven in part by rising rates of higher-grade, more aggressive endometrial cancers with variations in TP53, uterine serous cancers and their dedifferentiated component, uterine carcinosarcomas. Uterine serous cancer rates have been increasing among all racial and ethnic groups, with higher rates of this aggressive uterine cancer in Black women. The National Cancer Institute hosted a workshop in June 2023 to examine the diverse aspects of uterine serous cancers across epidemiology, biology, and molecular genetics and to advance knowledge from basic to preclinical and translational efforts. Key stakeholders, including basic scientists, clinical investigators, and patient advocates, came together to identify critical research gaps that, when addressed, would facilitate more comprehensive and rapid progress in understanding and ultimately treating uterine serous cancers across all patients. The National Cancer Institute released a supplemental funding opportunity (NOT-CA-24-044) in spring 2024 to facilitate rapid translation of these recommendations.

Linkage of individual-patient data confirm protection of prophylactic human papillomavirus vaccination against invasive cervical cancer

Obesity and prostate cancer screening, incidence, and mortality in the Prostate, Lung, Colorectal, and Ovarian Cancer Screening Trial

Abstract Background Though obesity, measured by body mass index (BMI), is an established risk factor for several cancer sites, there is conflicting evidence on whether obesity increases prostate cancer risk or mortality and, if it does, whether it increases risk directly or indirectly by affecting prostate cancer screening efficacy. Methods We examined associations between BMI and prostate cancer screening outcomes, incidence, and mortality in men randomly assigned to the intervention arm of the Prostate, Lung, Colorectal, and Ovarian Cancer Screening Trial (n = 36 756) between 1993 and 2001. Participants received annual screening with the prostate-specific antigen test and digital rectal exam. Associations between baseline BMI and screening outcomes were assessed via multinomial logistic regression, and associations with prostate cancer incidence and mortality were assessed via Cox proportional hazards regression. Results Individuals with higher BMI were less likely to screen positive via the prostate-specific antigen test and/or digital rectal exam and more likely to have an inadequate screen (all Ptrend < .01). Higher BMI was inversely associated with prostate cancer incidence (per 5 kg/m2 BMI increase: hazard ratio [HR] = 0.94, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.91 to 0.97), including incidence of early stage (HR = 0.94, 95% CI = 0.90 to 0.97) and advanced-stage (HR = 0.91, 95% CI = 0.82 to 1.02) disease, but positively associated with prostate cancer mortality (HR = 1.21, 95% CI = 1.06 to 1.37). The association with mortality was not modified by screening outcome (Pinteraction = .13). Conclusions Within this screened population, individuals with higher BMI had lower risk of prostate cancer diagnosis but higher risk of prostate cancer mortality. As higher BMI was not positively associated with advanced-stage prostate cancer risk, the increased mortality is unlikely to be due to delayed prostate cancer detection.

Initial evaluation of a new cervical screening strategy combining human papillomavirus genotyping and automated visual evaluation: the Human Papillomavirus–Automated Visual Evaluation Consortium

Abstract The HPV-Automated Visual Evaluation Consortium is validating a cervical screening strategy enabling accurate cervical screening in resource-limited settings. A rapid, low-cost human papillomavirus (HPV) assay permits sensitive HPV testing of self-collected vaginal specimens; HPV-negative women are reassured. Triage of positive participants combines HPV genotyping (4 groups in order of cancer risk) and visual inspection assisted by automated cervical visual evaluation that classifies cervical appearance as severe, indeterminate, or normal. Together, the combination predicts which women have precancer, permitting targeted management to those most needing treatment. We analyzed CIN3+ yield for each HPV-Automated Visual Evaluation risk level (HPV genotype crossed by automated cervical visual evaluation classification) from 9 clinical sites (Brazil, Cambodia, Dominican Republic, El Salvador, Eswatini, Honduras, Malawi, Nigeria, and Tanzania). Data from 1832 HPV-positive participants confirmed that HPV genotype and automated cervical visual evaluation classification strongly and independently predict risk of histologic CIN3+. The combination of these low-cost tests provided excellent risk stratification, warranting pre-implementation demonstration projects.

Microsatellite instability in noncolorectal and nonendometrial malignancies in patients with Lynch syndrome

Abstract Background Individuals with Lynch syndrome are at increased hereditary risk of colorectal and endometrial carcinomas with microsatellite instability (MSI-H) and mismatch repair-deficiency (dMMR), which make these tumors vulnerable to therapy with immune checkpoint inhibitors. Our aim is to assess how often other tumor types in these individuals share these characteristics. Methods We retrieved the full tumor history of a historical clinic-based cohort of 1745 individuals with Lynch syndrome and calculated the standardized incidence ratio for all tumor types. MSI status, somatic second hit alterations, and immunohistochemistry-based MMR status were analyzed in 236 noncolorectal and nonendometrial malignant tumors. Results In individuals with Lynch syndrome MSI-H/dMMR occurred both in Lynch-spectrum and in non–Lynch-spectrum malignancies (85% vs 37%, P < .01). MSI-H/dMMR malignancies were found in nearly all non–Lynch-spectrum tumor types. A high percentage (33%) of breast carcinomas with medullary features was observed, and most of them were MSI-H/dMMR. Breast carcinoma with medullary features were shown to be associated with Lynch syndrome (standardized incidence ratio = 38.8, 95% confidence interval = 16.7 to 76.5). Conclusions In individuals with Lynch syndrome, MSI-H/dMMR occurs in more than one-half of the malignancies other than colorectal and endometrial carcinomas, including tumor types without increased incidence. The Lynch-spectrum tumors should be expanded to breast carcinomas with medullary features. All malignancies in patients with Lynch syndrome, independent of subtype, should be tested for MSI-H/dMMR in case therapy with immune checkpoint inhibitors is considered. Moreover, Lynch syndrome should be considered an underlying cause of all MSI-H/dMMR malignancies other than colorectal and endometrial carcinomas.

RE: Universal Tumor DNA BRCA1/2 Testing of Ovarian Cancer: Prescreening PARPi Treatment and Genetic Predisposition

Prevalence and Prognosis of Lynch Syndrome and Sporadic Mismatch Repair Deficiency in Endometrial Cancer

Abstract Background Standard screening of endometrial cancer (EC) for Lynch syndrome (LS) is gaining traction; however, the prognostic impact of an underlying hereditary etiology is unknown. We established the prevalence, prognosis, and subsequent primary cancer incidence of patients with LS-associated EC in relation to sporadic mismatch repair deficient (MMRd)-EC in the large combined Post Operative Radiation Therapy in Endometrial Carcinoma-1, -2, and -3 trial cohort. Methods After MMR-immunohistochemistry, MLH1-promoter methylation testing, and next-generation sequencing, tumors were classified into 3 groups according to the molecular cause of their MMRd-EC. Kaplan-Meier method, log-rank test, and Cox model were used for survival analysis. Competing risk analysis was used to estimate the subsequent cancer probability. All statistical tests were 2-sided. Results Among the 1336 ECs, 410 (30.7%) were MMRd. A total of 380 (92.7%) were fully triaged: 275 (72.4%) were MLH1-hypermethylated MMRd-ECs; 36 (9.5%) LS MMRd-ECs, and 69 (18.2%) MMRd-ECs due to other causes. Limiting screening of EC patients to 60 years or younger or to 70 years or younger would have resulted in missing 18 (50.0%) and 6 (16.7%) LS diagnoses, respectively. Five-year recurrence-free survival was 91.7% (95% confidence interval [CI] = 83.1% to 100%; hazard ratio = 0.45, 95% CI = 0.16 to 1.24, P = .12) for LS, 95.5% (95% CI = 90.7% to 100%; hazard ratio = 0.17, 95% CI = 0.05 to 0.55, P = .003) for “other” vs 78.6% (95% CI = 73.8% to 83.7%) for MLH1-hypermethylated MMRd-EC. The probability of subsequent LS-associated cancer at 10 years was 11.6% (95% CI = 0.0% to 24.7%), 1.5% (95% CI = 0.0% to 4.3%), and 7.0% (95% CI = 3.0% to 10.9%) within the LS, “other,” and MLH1-hypermethylated MMRd-EC groups, respectively. Conclusions The LS prevalence in the Post Operative Radiation Therapy in Endometrial Carcinoma trial population was 2.8% and among MMRd-ECs was 9.5%. Patients with LS-associated ECs showed a trend towards better recurrence-free survival and higher risk for second cancers compared with patients with MLH1-hypermethylated MMRd-EC.

The impact of HIV on cervical cancer elimination in KwaZulu-Natal: a comparative modeling analysis

Abstract Background Achieving cervical cancer (CC) elimination requires addressing disparities in CC burden for women living with HIV (WLHIV) and how disparities evolve in the context of antiretroviral therapy (ART) scale-up. To inform CC elimination for high HIV prevalence regions, we modeled the impact of HIV, HIV interventions, and CC interventions in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa. Methods We used 2 independently developed, dynamic compartmental transmission models of HIV and human papillomavirus (DRIVE and Policy1-Cervix-HIV) calibrated to KwaZulu-Natal. We simulated: a counterfactual without HIV but with observed CC screening and vaccination; and scenarios sequentially adding condom use and voluntary medical male circumcision (VMMC); HIV; observed HIV and CC interventions (status quo); achieving United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS HIV treatment targets; and achieving World Health Organization (WHO) CC elimination targets. The impact of each scenario was measured as the difference in CC incidence from the previous scenario. Results were reported from 2024 to 2124 as a range between the 2 models; CC elimination was WHO-defined as incidence <4/100 000 women-years. Results For the status quo, CC incidence ranged from 61.30 to 78.96/100 000 women-years in 2024, with the highest incidence among WLHIV (126.8-192.0/100 000). HIV contributed an estimated 29.08-48.87 additional cases per 100 000. Neither model predicted elimination under status quo interventions, but achieving HIV treatment and CC elimination targets could reduce incidence to 1.42-6.25/100 000 women-years in 2124. Conclusions HIV is associated with a population-level increase in CC incidence. However, scaling up ART coverage and CC interventions is expected to significantly reduce the burden of CC overall and among WLHIV. These conclusions are consistent between both models and strengthened by the comparative modeling approach.

How the Coronavirus Disease-2019 May Improve Care: Rethinking Cervical Cancer Prevention

Abstract These past months of the coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-2019) pandemic have given us ample opportunity to reflect on the US health-care system. Despite overwhelming tragedy, it is an opportunity for us to learn and to change. As we postpone routine visits because of the pandemic, we worry about risks for patients who delay cancer screening. We use cervical cancer screening and prevention as an example of how we can use some “lessons learned” from the pandemic to prevent “collateral losses,” such as an increase in cancers. COVID-2019–related health-system changes, like the more rapid evaluation of diagnostic tests and vaccines, the transition to compensated virtual care for most counseling and education visits, and broadened access to home services, offer potential benefits to the delivery of cervical cancer screening and prevention. While we detail the case for cervical cancer prevention, many of the issues discussed are generalizable to other preventative measures. It would be a tragedy if the morbidity and mortality of COVID-2019 are multiplied because of additional suffering caused by delayed or deferred cancer screening and diagnostic evaluation—but maybe with creativity and reflection, we can use this pandemic to improve care.

Impact of repeatedly screening negative on cervical cancer risk

Abstract Background We demonstrated that cervical cancer risk following any screening result is lower if there is a known prior negative screening history vs an unknown screening history. We extended these findings to look at how screening performs following repeatedly negative screening results. Methods Approximately 1.7 million women aged 30-64 years underwent triennial human papillomavirus (HPV) and cytology co-testing from 2003 to 2021. We modeled 5-year risks of cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade 3 or more severe diagnoses (CIN3+) and invasive cervical cancer for the initial co-test, and then successive rounds following negative co-testing. A logistic-Weibull prevalence-incidence model was used to model risks. Results HPV test positivity was greater than cytology positivity for only the first co-test, and both positivity rates decreased with each screening round. Diagnostic yields of CIN3+ and cancer declined with each round of screening so the first screen yielded 8-fold more CIN3+ and invasive cancer than the fifth screen following 4 consecutive negative co-tests. Five-year risks of CIN3+ for positive and negative HPV and cytology results, individually or combined, decreased considerably after the first screen, with smaller decreases in each subsequent round. For cancer, we noticed a considerable decrease with the first screen only. Five-year CIN3+ risks were greater for positive HPV or cytology results, with a longer antecedent screening interval and younger age at screening (Ptrend < .001). Conclusions Triennial screening that includes HPV testing becomes inefficient after a single and more so after multiple negative screens. These data support the use of longer screening intervals, especially following negative screen(s).

An immunosuppressive tertiary lymphoid structure is associated with adverse prognosis in gastric-type endocervical adenocarcinoma

Abstract Background Gastric-type adenocarcinoma (GAC) is the predominant subtype of HPV-independent endocervical adenocarcinoma, characterized by aggressive clinical behavior and poor prognosis. However, its tumor immune microenvironment (TIME) remains largely unexplored. Methods We systematically profiled the immune landscape using bulk RNA sequencing and multiplex immunofluorescence staining and comprehensively analyzed the associations between immune features, clinicopathological parameters, and patient outcomes in a multi-institutional cohort of 153 GAC cases. Results GAC tumors exhibited sparse T cell but abundant macrophage infiltration, predominantly with M2-polarized macrophages in advanced stage. Tumors with tertiary lymphoid structure (TLS) demonstrated an immunosuppressive milieu characterized by enrichment of B cells, PD1-CD8+ T cells, and regulatory T cells. While TLS-positive patients were associated with poorer prognosis, 2 patients showed improved survival with chemoradiotherapy. Moreover, the TLS and FIGO stage-based prognostic model was robust in the risk stratification for tumor recurrence. Conclusions We reveal a distinct immunosuppressive TIME and TLS in GAC. TLS might confer an adverse prognosis. Our findings provide valuable clues for individualized therapy for this aggressive cancer in future.

Gaps in care across the cancer screening continuum for cervical, colorectal, and lung cancers

Abstract Background Screening for cervical, colorectal, and lung cancers reduces cancer-specific mortality, but the full benefits of screening are realized only when they are coupled with timely care across the subsequent “screening continuum” steps, including surveillance (results warranting frequent monitoring), diagnostic evaluation (results that require additional testing), and treatment (detected cancers). Our goal was to describe the proportion of individuals receiving timely cervical, colorectal, and lung cancer care at each step in the screening continuum. Methods This retrospective cohort study used data from the 10 health-care settings that participate in the Population-based Research to Optimize the Screening Process, 2018 to present, consortium and included individuals who were eligible for a step along the cancer screening continuum in 2018. Proportions of individuals who received timely testing were calculated for screening, surveillance, and diagnostic tests for each of the 3 cancers and treatment (colorectal cancer only), and we evaluated the association of these outcomes with patient characteristics using multivariate logistic regression. Results The overall proportions of timely screening, surveillance, and diagnostic testing were 41.8%, 37.3%, and 61.2% for cervical cancer; 82.4%, 45.5%, and 73.5% for colorectal cancer (94.1% for timely treatment); and 73.8%, 80.5%, and 80.7% for lung cancer. Across all 3 cancers, there were differences across the screening continuum by insurance status, race and ethnicity, and socioeconomic status. Conclusions There are important gaps in care across the screening continuum beyond common metrics for screening uptake. Comparison across organ types may facilitate the identification of interventions and policies that could broadly improve cancer prevention and promote health equity.

Mental disorders and socioeconomic outcomes in women with cervical cancer, and their children and co-parents

Abstract Background Cervical cancer often affects women who are in the middle of life and may carry substantial mental and socioeconomic impact also on families. We performed a generation-spanning study to elucidate this burden. Methods We used nationwide registers during 1991-2018 in Sweden to perform 2 matched cohort studies based on a source population of more than 5 million women. The individual sub-study included 6060 cases of cervical cancer diagnosed during 2006-2018 and 5 population comparators individually matched to each case by age, birth year, and region (n = 30 300). The family sub-study included 9332 cases of cervical cancer diagnosed during 1991-2016 and 45 674 matched population comparators and all their children and co-parents. Results We found an increased risk for mental disorders in cases compared with comparators, particularly during the first 2 years postdiagnosis (HR = 3.74, 95% CI = 3.45 to 4.06). Socioeconomic status changed negatively in cases after their diagnosis: a decreased income and increased need for financial aid appeared within 2 years, whereas unemployment escalated from 2 years after cancer diagnosis. We further found an increased risk of mental disorders in both children and co-parents of the cases, compared with the children and co-parents of the comparators. Furthermore, we observed negative socioeconomic trajectories in the co-parents and lower educational attainment in the children of the cases, especially if the case had died. Conclusions Women with cervical cancer, and their close family members, display increased risk of negative mental health and socioeconomic outcomes after diagnosis. The lower educational attainment in children appears particularly worrying.

Lineages and sublineages of high-risk human papillomavirus types associated with cervical cancer and precancer: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Abstract Background Infection with high-risk types of the human papillomavirus (HPV) is known to cause cervical cancer. Cervical cancer risk varies greatly by genotype, which is therefore used in screening algorithms. An extensive amount of research has also focused on the differential pathogenicity of high-risk HPV subtypes called lineages and sublineages (respectively 1.0%-10% and 0.5%-1.0% genetic difference), albeit with inconclusive and contradictory results. Therefore, the topic is systematically reviewed for the first time to determine whether the clinical use of (sub)lineage detection is supported. Methods Three databases for health sciences (PubMed, Web of Science, and Scopus) were searched for relevant papers. Meta-analysis was performed for HPV16-positive patients with cervical cancer and healthy participants using random effects models. Results The search yielded 1535 records, and 93 papers were included after the selection process. Although some trends in disease association were detected, 46 studies did not find statistically significant differences between (sub)lineages in individuals with and without cervical disease. Additionally, the reports are heterogeneous in terms of study design and often characterized by a small sample size. The meta-analysis found odds ratios of 2.2 (95% CI = 1.49 to 3.15) for HPV16 A4; 2.1 (95% CI = 1.25 to 3.40) for HPV16 D; and 0.48 (95% CI = 0.33 to 0.68) for HPV16 A1-3 with statistically significant heterogeneity (38%-77%). Conclusion This systematic review and meta-analysis provide an overview of the high-risk types of HPV (sub)lineages and association with cervical disease. Although some (sub)lineages marginally correlate with cervical malignancy, there is great variability. Unlike genotyping, this study demonstrates insufficient association between high-risk HPV (sub)lineages and cervical malignancy for clinical use to date.

HPV vaccine impact: genotype-specific changes in cervical pre-cancer share similarities with changes in cervical screening cytology

Abstract Background After human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccine introduction, declines in the prevalence of HPV vaccine types have been observed in screening cytology, but data from the United States describing HPV type-specific changes in cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (CIN) grades 2-3 and adenocarcinoma in situ (CIN2/CIN3/AIS) are limited. Methods A statewide sample of individuals with cervical biopsies was selected for broad-spectrum HPV genotyping. CIN2/CIN3/AIS incidence and prevalence were calculated for type-specific high-risk HPV (hrHPV) among individuals aged 15-29 years. Weighted incidence rate ratios (IRR) and relative differences in prevalence (RDP) were computed to compare 3 time periods: 2006-2009 (Cohort 1 [C1], n = 4121), 2012-2015 (C2, n = 2194), and 2015-2018 (C3, n = 1481). Results When comparing C1 vs C3 among those aged 21-25 years, statistically significant reductions in hrHPV type-specific CIN2/CIN3/AIS incidence were observed for HPV16, HPV18, HPV31, and HPV33, with corresponding IRRs of 0.4 (95% confidence interval [95% CI] = 0.3 to 0.4), 0.3 (95% CI = 0.1 to 0.7), 0.6 (95% CI = 0.5 to 0.9), and 0.4 (95% CI = 0.1 to 0.8), respectively. The RDP comparing C1 vs C3 for HPV16/18-positive CIN2/CIN3/AIS was -43.8% (P < .001). When excluding HPV16/18 or HPV16/18/31/33 from all hrHPV types, the RDP was +56.6% and +92.5% (P < .001), respectively. Conclusions hrHPV type-specific CIN2/CIN3/AIS incidence decreased with statistical significance for vaccine types HPV16/18 and for HPV31 and HPV33. Although the HPV vaccine is highly beneficial and a top priority for preventing HPV-related cancer, the long-term vaccine impact in cohorts receiving the 4-valent HPV vaccine requires continued follow-up to assess genotype-specific distributions in the remaining CIN2+ lesions and cancers.

Human papillomavirus genotype-specific prevalence and infection risks: a 10-year population-based study from the United States

Abstract Background Various studies have reported on the impact of human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccines. Here we present the largest population-based investigation of genotype-specific distributions over the decade following implementation of the quadrivalent HPV vaccine (HPV-6/11/16/18) in the United States. Methods Liquid-based cervical cytology samples from individuals aged 15-30 years undergoing cervical screening throughout New Mexico were tested by broad-spectrum HPV genotyping. Weighted relative differences in HPV type-specific prevalence and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated by comparing individuals screened between 2007 and 2009 (n = 95 915) with individuals screened between 2013 and 2016 (n = 103 371). Weighted logistic regression was used to estimate relative risk of type-specific HPV infections. Tests of significance were 2-sided. Results Genotype-specific prevalence fell with statistical signficance for HPV-16 (relative difference = ‒52.6%, 95% CI = ‒56.9 to ‒48.3), HPV-18 (relative difference = ‒62.1%, 95% CI = ‒68.5 to ‒55.8), HPV-31 (relative difference = ‒34.2%, 95% CI = ‒42.1 to ‒26.3), and HPV-33 (relative difference = ‒31.8%, 95% CI = ‒48.4 to ‒15.1). The relative difference increased for other carcinogenic HPV types by 19.5% (95% CI = 14.3 to 24.6) when excluding HPV-16/18. Large reductions in HPV-6/11 relative differences were observed, but overall, noncarcinogenic, nonvaccine types increased. Comparing female individuals born in 1996 with female individuals born in 1989, risk of infection with HPV-6, 11, 16, and 18 decreased by 80.0% among individuals aged 21-25 years. High-grade squamous intraepithelial lesions or worse decreased by 49.4% when extending the evaluation from 2007 to 2018. Conclusion The incidence of high-grade squamous intraepithelial lesions or worse is decreasing, with large reductions in the prevalence of quadrivalent HPV vaccine types and nonvaccine types HPV-31 and HPV-33, reflecting vaccine cross-protection. Increases in nonvaccine HPV genotypes may attenuate anticipated reductions in HPV-related abnormalities, including cancers, but the benefits of HPV vaccination remain substantial.

Prediagnostic evaluation of multicancer detection tests: design and analysis considerations

Abstract There is growing interest in multicancer detection tests, which identify molecular signals in the blood that indicate a potential preclinical cancer. A key stage in evaluating these tests is a prediagnostic performance study, in which investigators store specimens from asymptomatic individuals and later test stored specimens from patients with cancer and a random sample of controls to determine predictive performance. Performance metrics include rates of cancer-specific true-positive and false-positive findings and a cancer-specific positive predictive value, with the latter compared with a decision-analytic threshold. The sample size trade-off method, which trades imprecise targeting of the true-positive rate for precise targeting of a zero-false-positive rate can substantially reduce sample size while increasing the lower bound of the positive predictive value. For a 1-year follow-up, with ovarian cancer as the rarest cancer considered, the sample size trade-off method yields a sample size of 163 000 compared with a sample size of 720 000, based on standard calculations. These design and analysis recommendations should be considered in planning a specimen repository and in the prediagnostic evaluation of multicancer detection tests.

Impact of knowledge of human papillomavirus positivity on cervical cytology performance in Latin America

Abstract Background Cervical cytology is recommended by the World Health Organization as a triage option in human papillomavirus (HPV)-based cervical cancer screening programs. We assessed the performance of cytology to detect CIN3+ without and with knowledge of HPV positivity. Methods Women were screened with cytology and HPV across ESTAMPA study centers in Latin America. Screen-positives were referred to colposcopy with biopsy and treatment as needed. Cytology was initially interpreted without knowing HPV results. A subset of cytologies from HPV-positive women were reinterpreted at the same laboratories, with knowledge of HPV status, blinded to previous cytology and histological diagnosis. Performance indicators for cytology to detect CIN3+ without and with knowledge of HPV positivity were estimated. Findings A total of 4087 women were included, of which 490 had histologically confirmed CIN3+ (455 CIN3 and 35 cancers). Cytology sensitivity without knowledge of HPV positivity for CIN3+ was 47.2% (95% CI = 42.5 to 51.9), whereas with knowledge of HPV positivity, the sensitivity was higher (58.9%, 95% CI = 54.2 to 63.5; P < .0001). The specificity without knowledge of HPV was 89.4% (95% CI = 88.2 to 90.5), whereas with knowledge of HPV positivity was 78.9% (95% CI = 77.4 to 80.4; P < .0001). Performance estimates varied by study center for cytology without knowing the HPV positivity (range = 32.8%-61.5% for sensitivity; range = 80.7%-98.6% for specificity). Similarly, performance varied with knowledge of HPV positivity (36.1%-93.4% for sensitivity; 39.6%-98.6% for specificity). Conclusion The increase in sensitivity of cytology with HPV knowledge was limited and highly variable, reinforcing the need for alternative triage methods to support cervical cancer elimination goals.

NCCN guideline–concordant cancer care in sub-Saharan Africa: a population-based multicountry study of 5 cancers

Abstract Background To assess population-based quality of cancer care in sub-Saharan Africa and to identify specific gaps and joint opportunities, we assessed concordance of diagnostics and treatments with National Comprehensive Cancer Network Harmonized Guidelines for leading cancer types in 10 countries. Methods Adult patients with female breast cancer, cervical cancer, colorectal cancer, non-Hodgkin lymphoma, and prostate cancer were randomly drawn from 11 population-based cancer registries. Guideline concordance of diagnostics and treatment was assessed using clinical records. In a subcohort of 906 patients with potentially curable cancer (stage I-III breast cancer, cervical cancer, colorectal cancer, prostate cancer, aggressive non-Hodgkin lymphoma [any stage]) and documentation for more than 1 month after diagnosis, we estimated factors associated with guideline-concordant treatment or minor deviations. Results Diagnostic information based on guidelines was complete for 1030 (31.7%) of a total of 3246 patients included. In the subcohort with curable cancer, guideline-concordant treatment was documented in 374 (41.3%, corresponding to 11.7% of 3246 patients included in the population-based cohort): aggressive non-Hodgkin lymphoma (59.8%/9.1% population based), breast cancer (54.5%/19.0%), prostate cancer (39.0%/6.1%), colorectal cancer (33.9%/9.5%), and cervical cancer (27.8%/11.6%). Guideline-concordant treatment was most frequent in Namibia (73.1% of the curable cancer subcohort/32.8% population based) and lowest in Kampala, Uganda (13.5%/3.1%). Guideline-concordant treatment was negatively associated with poor ECOG-ACRIN performance status, locally advanced disease stage, origin from low Human Development Index countries, and a diagnosis of colorectal cancer or cervical cancer. Conclusions The quality of diagnostic workup and treatment showed major deficits, with considerable disparities among countries and cancer types. Improved diagnostic services are necessary to increase the share of curable cancer in sub-Saharan Africa. Treatment components within National Comprehensive Cancer Network Guidelines for several cancers should be prioritized.

Quality of Life and Adverse Events: Prognostic Relationships in Long-Term Ovarian Cancer Survival

Abstract Background There is a critical need to identify patient characteristics associated with long-term ovarian cancer survival. Methods Quality of life (QOL), measured by the Functional Assessment of Cancer Therapy-Ovarian-Trial Outcome Index (FACT-O-TOI), including physical, functional, and ovarian-specific subscales, was compared between long-term survivors (LTS) (8+ years) and short-term survivors (STS) (<5 years) of GOG 218 at baseline; before cycles 4, 7, 13, 21; and 6 months post-treatment using linear and longitudinal mixed models adjusted for covariates. Adverse events (AEs) were compared between survivor groups at each assessment using generalized linear models. All P values are 2-sided. Results QOL differed statistically significantly between STS (N = 1115) and LTS (N = 260) (P < .001). Baseline FACT-O-TOI and FACT-O-TOI change were independently associated with long-term survival (odds ratio = 1.05, 95% confidence interval = 1.03 to 1.06 and odds ratio = 1.06, 95% confidence interval = 1.05 to 1.07, respectively). A 7-point increase in baseline QOL was associated with a 38.0% increase in probability of LTS, and a 9-point increase in QOL change was associated with a 67.0% increase in odds for LTS. QOL decreased statistically significantly with increasing AE quartiles (cycle 4 quartiles: 0-5 vs 6-8 vs 9-11 vs ≥12 AEs, P = .01; cycle 21 quartiles: 0-2 vs 3 vs 4-5 vs ≥6 AEs, P = .001). Further, LTS reported statistically significantly better QOL compared with STS (P = .03 and P = .01, cycles 4 and 21, respectively), with similar findings across higher AE grades. Conclusions Baseline and longitudinal QOL change scores distinguished LTS vs STS and are robust prognosticators for long-term survival. Results have trial design and supportive care implications, providing meaningful prognostic value in this understudied population.

Effect of the p53 P72R Polymorphism on Mutant TP53 Allele Selection in Human Cancer

Abstract Background TP53 mutations occur in more than 50% of cancers. We sought to determine the effect of the intragenic P72R single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP; rs1042522) on the oncogenic properties of mutant p53. Methods P72R allelic selection in tumors was determined from genotype calls and a Gaussian distributed mixture model. The SNP effect on mutant p53 was determined in p53-negative cancer cell lines. RNA-sequencing, chromatin immunoprecipitation, and survival analysis were performed to describe the SNP effect. All statistical tests were 2-sided. Results Among 409 patients with germline heterozygous P72R SNP who harbored somatic mutations in TP53, we observed a selection bias against missense TP53 mutants encoding the P72 SNP (P = 1.64 x 10-13). Exogenously expressed hotspot p53 mutants with the P72 SNP were negatively selected in cancer cells. Gene expression analyses showed the enrichment of p53 pathway genes and inflammatory genes in cancer cells transduced with mutants encoding P72 SNP. Immune gene signature is enriched in patients harboring missense TP53 mutations with homozygous P72 SNP. These patients have improved overall survival as compared with those with the R72 SNP (P = .04). Conclusion This is the largest study demonstrating a selection against the P72 SNP. Missense p53 mutants with the P72 SNP retain partial wild-type tumor-suppressive functions, which may explain the selection bias against P72 SNP across cancer types. Ovarian cancer patients with the P72 SNP have a better prognosis than with the R72 SNP. Our study describes a previously unknown role through which the rs1042522 SNP modifies tumor suppressor activities of mutant p53 in patients.

Concordance Between Tumor and Germline BRCA Status in High-Grade Ovarian Carcinoma Patients in the Phase III PAOLA-1/ENGOT-ov25 Trial

Abstract Background PAOLA1 is a phase III study assessing olaparib maintenance therapy in advanced high-grade ovarian carcinoma patients responding to first-line platinum-taxane–based chemotherapy plus bevacizumab as standard of care. Randomization was stratified by treatment outcome and tumor BRCA1/2 status (tBRCA) at screening. Methods tBRCA was tested on formalin-fixed, paraffin-embedded tumor blocks on 5 French platforms using 2 next-generation sequencing methods based either on hybrid capture or amplicon technology. One of the exploratory objectives was to assess the concordance between germline (gBRCA) and tBRCA testing in French patients. gBRCA testing was performed on blood samples on the same platforms. Results From May 2015 to July 2017, tBRCA tests were performed for 1176 screened patients. Only 52 (4.4%) tumor samples were noncontributive. The median interval between reception of the tumor sample and availability of the tBRCA status result was 37 days (range = 8-260). A pathogenic variant was reported in 27.1% tumor samples (319 of 1176 screened patients). tBRCA and gBRCA testing were performed for 451 French patients with negative results for both tests in 306 patients (67.8%) and positive results for both tests in 85 patients (18.8%). Only 1 large genomic rearrangement of BRCA1 was detected, exclusively in the blood sample. Interestingly, tBRCA testing revealed 6.4% of pathogenic variant (29 of 451) not detected by gBRCA testing. Conclusions tBRCA testing is an appropriate tool with an acceptable turnaround time for clinical practice and a low failure rate, ensuring reliable identification of patients likely to benefit from poly(ADP-ribose) polymerase inhibitor therapy.

Racial Differences in Population Attributable Risk for Epithelial Ovarian Cancer in the OCWAA Consortium

Abstract Background The causes of racial disparities in epithelial ovarian cancer (EOC) incidence remain unclear. Differences in the prevalence of ovarian cancer risk factors may explain disparities in EOC incidence among African American (AA) and White women. Methods We used data from 4 case-control studies and 3 case-control studies nested within prospective cohorts in the Ovarian Cancer in Women of African Ancestry Consortium to estimate race-specific associations of 10 known or suspected EOC risk factors using logistic regression. Using the Bruzzi method, race-specific population attributable risks (PAR) were estimated for each risk factor individually and collectively, including groupings of exposures (reproductive factors and modifiable factors). All statistical tests were 2-sided. Results Among 3244 White EOC cases and 9638 controls and 1052 AA EOC cases and 2410 controls, AA women had a statistically significantly higher PAR (false discovery rate [FDR] P < .001) for first-degree family history of breast cancer (PAR = 10.1%, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 6.5% to 13.7%) compared with White women (PAR = 2.6%, 95% CI = 0.8% to 4.4%). After multiple test correction, AA women had a higher PAR than White women when evaluating all risk factors collectively (PAR = 61.6%, 95% CI = 48.6% to 71.3% vs PAR = 43.0%, 95% CI = 32.8% to 51.4%, respectively; FDR P = .06) and for modifiable exposures, including body mass index, oral contraceptives, aspirin, and body powder (PAR = 36.0%, 95% CI = 21.0% to 48.8% vs PAR = 13.8%, 95% CI = 4.5% to 21.8%, respectively; FDR P = .04). Conclusions Collectively, the selected risk factors accounted for slightly more of the risk among AA than White women, and interventions to reduce EOC incidence that are focused on multiple modifiable risk factors may be slightly more beneficial to AA women than White women at risk for EOC.

Expanding Our Understanding of Ovarian Cancer Risk: The Role of Incomplete Pregnancies

Abstract Background Parity is associated with decreased risk of invasive ovarian cancer; however, the relationship between incomplete pregnancies and invasive ovarian cancer risk is unclear. This relationship was examined using 15 case-control studies from the Ovarian Cancer Association Consortium (OCAC). Histotype-specific associations, which have not been examined previously with large sample sizes, were also evaluated. Methods A pooled analysis of 10 470 invasive epithelial ovarian cancer cases and 16 942 controls was conducted. Odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for the association between incomplete pregnancies and invasive epithelial ovarian cancer were estimated using logistic regression. All models were conditioned on OCAC study, race and ethnicity, age, and education level and adjusted for number of complete pregnancies, oral contraceptive use, and history of breastfeeding. The same approach was used for histotype-specific analyses. Results Ever having an incomplete pregnancy was associated with a 16% reduction in ovarian cancer risk (OR = 0.84, 95% CI = 0.79 to 0.89). There was a trend of decreasing risk with increasing number of incomplete pregnancies (2-sided Ptrend < .001). An inverse association was observed for all major histotypes; it was strongest for clear cell ovarian cancer. Conclusions Incomplete pregnancies are associated with a reduced risk of invasive epithelial ovarian cancer. Pregnancy, including incomplete pregnancy, was associated with a greater reduction in risk of clear cell ovarian cancer, but the result was broadly consistent across histotypes. Future work should focus on understanding the mechanisms underlying this reduced risk.

Copy Number Variants Are Ovarian Cancer Risk Alleles at Known and Novel Risk Loci

AbstractBackgroundKnown risk alleles for epithelial ovarian cancer (EOC) account for approximately 40% of the heritability for EOC. Copy number variants (CNVs) have not been investigated as EOC risk alleles in a large population cohort.MethodsSingle nucleotide polymorphism array data from 13 071 EOC cases and 17 306 controls of White European ancestry were used to identify CNVs associated with EOC risk using a rare admixture maximum likelihood test for gene burden and a by-probe ratio test. We performed enrichment analysis of CNVs at known EOC risk loci and functional biofeatures in ovarian cancer–related cell types.ResultsWe identified statistically significant risk associations with CNVs at known EOC risk genes; BRCA1 (PEOC = 1.60E-21; OREOC = 8.24), RAD51C (Phigh-grade serous ovarian cancer [HGSOC] = 5.5E-4; odds ratio [OR]HGSOC = 5.74 del), and BRCA2 (PHGSOC = 7.0E-4; ORHGSOC = 3.31 deletion). Four suggestive associations (P < .001) were identified for rare CNVs. Risk-associated CNVs were enriched (P < .05) at known EOC risk loci identified by genome-wide association study. Noncoding CNVs were enriched in active promoters and insulators in EOC-related cell types.ConclusionsCNVs in BRCA1 have been previously reported in smaller studies, but their observed frequency in this large population-based cohort, along with the CNVs observed at BRCA2 and RAD51C gene loci in EOC cases, suggests that these CNVs are potentially pathogenic and may contribute to the spectrum of disease-causing mutations in these genes. CNVs are likely to occur in a wider set of susceptibility regions, with potential implications for clinical genetic testing and disease prevention.

RE: Nitrogen-Based Bisphosphonate Use and Ovarian Cancer Risk in Women Aged 50 Years and Older

Nitrogen-based Bisphosphonate Use and Ovarian Cancer Risk in Women Aged 50 Years and Older

Abstract Background There are few readily modifiable risk factors for epithelial ovarian cancer; preclinical studies suggest bisphosphonates could have chemopreventive actions. Our study aimed to assess the association between use of nitrogen-based bisphosphonate medicine and risk of epithelial ovarian cancer, overall and by histotype. Methods We conducted a case-control study nested within a large, linked administrative dataset including all Australian women enrolled for Medicare, Australia’s universal health insurance scheme, between July 2002 and December 2013. We included all women with epithelial ovarian cancer diagnosed at age 50 years and older between July 1, 2004, and December 31, 2013 (n = 9367) and randomly selected up to 5 controls per case, individually matched to cases by age, state of residence, area-level socioeconomic status, and remoteness of residence category (n = 46 830). We used prescription records to ascertain use of nitrogen-based bisphosphonates (ever use and duration of use), raloxifene, and other osteoporosis medicines (no nitrogen-based bisphosphonates, strontium and denosumab). We calculated adjusted odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) using conditional logistic regression. Results Ever use of nitrogen-based bisphosphonates was associated with a reduced risk of epithelial ovarian cancer compared with no use (OR = 0.81, 95% CI = 0.75 to 0.88). There was a reduced risk of endometrioid (OR = 0.51, 95% CI = 0.33 to 0.79) and serous histotypes (OR = 0.84, 95% CI = 0.75 to 0.93) but no association with the mucinous or clear cell histotypes. Conclusion Use of nitrogen-based bisphosphonates was associated with a reduced risk of endometrioid and serous ovarian cancer. This suggests the potential for use for prevention, although validation of our findings is required.

Untangling the Relationship Between Clonal Hematopoiesis and Ovarian Cancer Therapies

Association of Genetic Testing Results With Mortality Among Women With Breast Cancer or Ovarian Cancer

Abstract Background Breast cancer and ovarian cancer patients increasingly undergo germline genetic testing. However, little is known about cancer-specific mortality among carriers of a pathogenic variant (PV) in BRCA1/2 or other genes in a population-based setting. Methods Georgia and California Surveillance Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) registry records were linked to clinical genetic testing results. Women were included who had stages I-IV breast cancer or ovarian cancer diagnosed in 2013-2017, received chemotherapy, and were linked to genetic testing results. Multivariable Cox proportional hazard models were used to examine the association of genetic results with cancer-specific mortality. Results 22 495 breast cancer and 4320 ovarian cancer patients were analyzed, with a median follow-up of 41 months. PVs were present in 12.7% of breast cancer patients with estrogen and/or progesterone receptor-positive, HER2-negative cancer, 9.8% with HER2-positive cancer, 16.8% with triple-negative breast cancer, and 17.2% with ovarian cancer. Among triple-negative breast cancer patients, cancer-specific mortality was lower with BRCA1 (hazard ratio [HR] = 0.49, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.35 to 0.69) and BRCA2 PVs (HR = 0.60, 95% CI = 0.41 to 0.89), and equivalent with PVs in other genes (HR = 0.65, 95% CI = 0.37 to 1.13), vs noncarriers. Among ovarian cancer patients, cancer-specific mortality was lower with PVs in BRCA2 (HR = 0.35, 95% CI = 0.25 to 0.49) and genes other than BRCA1/2 (HR = 0.47, 95% CI = 0.32 to 0.69). No PV was associated with higher cancer-specific mortality. Conclusions Among breast cancer and ovarian cancer patients treated with chemotherapy in the community, BRCA1/2 and other gene PV carriers had equivalent or lower short-term cancer-specific mortality than noncarriers. These results may reassure newly diagnosed patients, and longer follow-up is ongoing.

Efficacy, Safety, and Immunogenicity of an Escherichia coli-Produced Bivalent Human Papillomavirus Vaccine: An Interim Analysis of a Randomized Clinical Trial

Abstract Background The high cost and insufficient supply of human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccines have slowed the pace of controlling cervical cancer. A phase III clinical trial was conducted to evaluate the efficacy, safety, and immunogenicity of a novel Escherichia coli-produced bivalent HPV-16/18 vaccine. Methods A multicenter, randomized, double-blind trial started on November 22, 2012 in China. In total, 7372 eligible women aged 18–45 years were age-stratified and randomly assigned to receive three doses of the test or control (hepatitis E) vaccine at months 0, 1, and 6. Co-primary endpoints included high-grade genital lesions and persistent infection (over 6 months) associated with HPV-16/18. The primary analysis was performed on a per-protocol susceptible population of individuals who were negative for relevant HPV type-specific neutralizing antibodies (at day 0) and DNA (at day 0 through month 7) and who received three doses of the vaccine. This report presents data from a prespecified interim analysis used for regulatory submission. Results In the per-protocol cohort, the efficacies against high-grade genital lesions and persistent infection were 100.0% (95% confidence interval = 55.6% to 100.0%, 0 of 3306 in the vaccine group vs 10 of 3296 in the control group) and 97.8% (95% confidence interval = 87.1% to 99.9%, 1 of 3240 vs 45 of 3246), respectively. The side effects were mild. No vaccine-related serious adverse events were noted. Robust antibody responses for both types were induced and persisted for at least 42 months. Conclusions The E coli-produced HPV-16/18 vaccine is well tolerated and highly efficacious against HPV-16/18–associated high-grade genital lesions and persistent infection in women.

RE: How the Coronavirus Disease-2019 May Improve Care: Rethinking Cervical Cancer Prevention

Deep-Learning–Based Evaluation of Dual Stain Cytology for Cervical Cancer Screening: A New Paradigm

Incidence Trends and Burden of Human Papillomavirus-Associated Cancers Among Women in the United States, 2001-2017

Abstract Human papillomavirus (HPV)-associated anal and oropharyngeal cancer incidence has increased in recent years among US women. However, trends in incidence and burden (annual number of cases) of noncervical HPV-associated cancers relative to cervical cancer remain unclear. Using the 2001-2017 US cancer statistics dataset, we evaluated contemporary incidence trends and burden (annual number of cases) of HPV-associated cancers among women by anatomic site, race or ethnicity, and age. Overall, cervical cancer incidence plateaued among White women but continued to decline among Black and Hispanic women. Anal cancer incidence surpassed cervical cancer incidence among White women aged 65-74 years of age (8.6 and 8.2 per 100 000 in 2015) and 75 years or older (6.2 and 6.0 per 100 000 in 2014). The noncervical cancer burden (n  =  11 871) surpassed the cervical cancer burden (n  =  11 527) in 2013. Development of efficacious screening strategies for noncervical cancers and continued improvement in cervical cancer prevention are needed to combat HPV-associated cancers among women.

How Can We Pursue Equity in Cervical Cancer Prevention With Existing HPV Genotype Differences?

Addressing algorithmic bias in lung cancer screening eligibility

Abstract Background The US Preventive Services Task Force (USPSTF) lung cancer screening eligibility guidelines and proposed risk models have been developed using data predominantly from White populations. Studies show that these eligibility strategies perform inconsistently across racially diverse populations, suggesting evidence of algorithmic bias. We assessed several lung cancer screening eligibility strategies and explored how algorithmic bias can be resolved to improve equity in eligibility. Methods Using the Southern Community Cohort Study, a large US study of predominantly Black/African American individuals, we evaluated the performance of 8 existing lung cancer screening eligibility strategies (USPSTF 2021; American Cancer Society 2023 recommendations; USPSTFSmokeDuration; Prostate, Lung, Colorectal and Ovarian 2012 risk prediction model [PLCOm2012]; PLCOm2012NoRace; PLCOm2012Update; Lung Cancer Risk Assessment Tool; and Lung Cancer Death Risk Assessment tool) and 2 new race-aware strategies proposed by our team (USPSTFRaceSpecific and PLCOm2012RaceSpecific). Results Among 52 667 adults (65% Black/African American, 31% White, 4% Multiracial/Other) with a smoking history, 1689 developed lung cancer over 15 years. Most screening strategies identified fewer Black/African American participants who developed lung cancer as eligible for screening vs their White counterparts (sensitivity for Black/African American individuals = 0.46-0.73 vs 0.72-0.80 for their White counterparts). Racial eligibility disparities were not resolved by removing race, removing the “years since quit” criterion, or using uniform risk thresholds. Replacing pack-years with smoking duration improved equity but overinflated the false-positive rate (0.71 for Black/African American persons vs 0.61 for White persons). Instead, race-aware approaches that tailored eligibility thresholds by race yielded the best sensitivity-specificity trade-off and minimized inequities (sensitivity = 0.71-0.73 for Black/African American persons vs 0.72-0.74 for White persons; false-positive rate = 0.49-0.50 for Black/African American persons vs 0.50-0.53 for White persons). Conclusion Our findings suggest that race-aware approaches are necessary to address algorithmic bias and ensure equitable opportunities for lung cancer screening.

Contrasts in colorectal cancer incidence and mortality in screening trials of sigmoidoscopy vs the Nordic-European Initiative on Colorectal Cancer colonoscopy trial

Abstract Background Interim 10-year results from the Nordic-European Initiative on Colorectal Cancer (NordICC), a randomized controlled trial (RCT) of screening colonoscopy, demonstrated a statistically significant reduction in colorectal cancer (CRC) incidence but not mortality, contrary to results from 4 flexible sigmoidoscopy RCTs. Methods We constructed CRC incidence and mortality Kaplan–Meier curves through 10 years to standardize comparisons across RCTs and examined CRC screen detection and stage. Novel analyses of 1 flexible sigmoidoscopy RCT (Prostate, Lung, Colorectal, and Ovarian cancer screening trial [PLCO]) assessed year-by-year mortality in screen-detected CRCs. Results At 10 years, all RCTs demonstrated statistically significant CRC incidence reductions with screening (ratio = 0.77, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.70 to 0.84, to ratio = 0.82, 95% CI = 0.69 to 0.97, vs control arm; P ≤ .011). Two flexible sigmoidoscopy RCTs and NordICC showed no statistically significant CRC mortality reduction (ratio = 0.84, 95% CI = 0.64 to 1.10, to ratio = 0.90, 95% CI = 0.69 to 1.18; P = .10-0.23). In 3 flexible sigmoidoscopy RCTs and NordICC, relative reductions were greater in CRC incidence than CRC mortality, but only NordICC reported higher CRC mortality with screening vs the control arm for the first 7 years. In contrast, PLCO observed fewer CRC deaths with screening by year 2 (ratio = 0.59; P = .03), and screen-detected CRCs were less often advanced (odds ratio = 0.26; P < .001) or fatal (ratio = 0.50; P < .001). Conclusions After 10 years, NordICC is similar to 2 flexible sigmoidoscopy RCTs in observing statistically significant reductions in CRC incidence but not CRC mortality. However, only NordICC observed greater CRC mortality with screening vs the control arm for 7 years. Granular analyses of CRC cases and deaths in NordICC, paralleling our PLCO analyses, could provide insight into why CRC mortality results differ in NordICC vs flexible sigmoidoscopy RCTs.

Different dosage forms of gonadotropin-releasing hormone agonist with endocrine therapy in premenopausal hormone receptor–positive breast cancer

Abstract Background Despite the wide use of a 3-month gonadotropin-releasing hormone (GnRH) agonist for ovarian function suppression in premenopausal breast cancer patients, it remains unclear whether it is as effective and safe as a 1-month GnRH agonist regimen when combined with selective estrogen receptor modulators or aromatase inhibitors, especially in younger patients. Methods This retrospective cohort study included 1109 premenopausal hormone receptor–positive breast cancer patients treated with GnRH agonist plus selective estrogen receptor modulator or aromatase inhibitor. The estradiol (E2) inhibition rate within 1-24 months after treatment with 1-month or 3-month GnRH agonist in cohorts and different subgroups was analyzed. Results Following 1:1 propensity score matching, 950 patients with a mean age of 39 years and a median follow-up of 46 months were included. Both the 1-month and 3-month groups achieved more than 90% E2 inhibition within 24 months (94.53% vs 92.84%, with a 95% confidence interval for the difference ranging from −4.78% to 1.41%), confirming the noninferiority of 3-month GnRH agonist. Both 1-month and 3-month GnRH agonist rapidly and consistently reduced E2 levels. Of the patients, 60 (6.3%) experienced incomplete ovarian function suppression, with similar rates in the 1-month and 3-month groups (5.5% vs 7.2%). Incomplete ovarian function suppression mainly occurred within the first 12 months, with age younger than 40 years and no prior chemotherapy being the risk factors. Similar disease-free survival and overall survival were found in the 1-month and 3-month groups and in patients with complete and incomplete ovarian function suppression (P > .05). Conclusions The ovarian function suppression with 3-month GnRH agonist was not inferior to that with 1-month GnRH agonist, regardless of age or combination with a selective estrogen receptor modulator or an aromatase inhibitor.

Association between diet quality and ovarian cancer risk and survival

Abstract Background Research on diet quality and ovarian cancer is limited. We examined the association between diet quality and ovarian cancer risk and survival in a large prospective cohort. Methods We used data from women in the prospective National Institutes of Health–AARP Diet and Health Study enrolled from 1995 to 1996 who were aged 50-71 years at baseline with follow-up through December 31, 2017. Participants completed a 124-item food frequency questionnaire at baseline, and diet quality was assessed via the Healthy Eating Index-2015, the alternate Mediterranean diet score, and the Dietary Approaches to Stop Hypertension score. Primary outcomes were first primary epithelial ovarian cancer diagnosis from cancer registry data and among those diagnosed with ovarian cancer all-cause mortality. We used a semi-Markov multistate model with Cox proportional hazards regression to account for semicompeting events. Results Among 150 643 participants with a median follow-up time of 20.5 years, 1107 individuals were diagnosed with a first primary epithelial ovarian cancer. There was no evidence of an association between diet quality and ovarian cancer risk. Among those diagnosed with epithelial ovarian cancer, 893 deaths occurred with a median survival of 2.5 years. Better prediagnosis diet quality, according to the Healthy Eating Index-2015 (quintile 5 vs quintile 1: hazard ratio [HR] = 0.75, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.60 to 0.93) and alternate Mediterranean diet score (quintile 5 vs quintile 1: HR = 0.68, 95% CI = 0.53 to 0.87), was associated with lower all-cause mortality. There was no evidence of an association between Dietary Approaches to Stop Hypertension score and all-cause mortality. Conclusions Better prediagnosis diet quality was associated with lower all-cause mortality after ovarian cancer diagnosis but was not associated with ovarian cancer risk.

The association of body composition phenotypes before chemotherapy with epithelial ovarian cancer mortality

Abstract Background The association of body composition with epithelial ovarian carcinoma (EOC) mortality is poorly understood. To date, evidence suggests that high adiposity is associated with decreased mortality (an obesity paradox), but the impact of muscle on this association has not been investigated. Herein, we define associations of muscle and adiposity joint-exposure body composition phenotypes with EOC mortality. Methods Body composition from 500 women in the Body Composition and Epithelial Ovarian Cancer Survival Study was dichotomized as normal or low skeletal muscle index (SMI), a proxy for sarcopenia, and high or low adiposity. Four phenotypes were classified as fit (normal SMI and low adiposity; reference; 16.2%), overweight or obese (normal SMI and high adiposity; 51.2%), sarcopenia and overweight or obese (low SMI and high adiposity; 15.6%), and sarcopenia or cachexia (low SMI and low adiposity; 17%). We used multivariable Cox models to estimate associations of each phenotype with mortality for EOC overall and high-grade serous ovarian carcinoma (HGSOC). Results Overweight or obesity was associated with up to 51% and 104% increased mortality in EOC and HGSOC [Hazard Ratio (HR)] = 1.51, 95% CI = 1.05 to 2.19 and HR = 2.04, 95% CI = 1.29 to 3.21). Sarcopenia and overweight or obesity was associated with up to 66% and 67% increased mortality in EOC and HGSOC (HR = 1.66, 95% CI = 1.13 to 2.45 and HR = 1.67, 95% CI = 1.05 to 2.68). Sarcopenia or cachexia was associated with up to 73% and 109% increased mortality in EOC and HGSOC (HR = 1.73, 95% CI = 1.14 to 2.63 and HR = 2.09, 95% CI = 1.25 to 3.50). Conclusions Overweight or obesity, sarcopenia and overweight or obesity, and sarcopenia or cachexia phenotypes were each associated with increased mortality in EOC and HGSOC. Exercise and dietary interventions could be leveraged as ancillary treatment strategies for improving outcomes in the most fatal gynecological malignancy with no previously established modifiable prognostic factors.

Estimating sojourn time and sensitivity of screening for ovarian cancer using a Bayesian framework

Abstract Background Ovarian cancer is among the leading causes of gynecologic cancer-related death. Past ovarian cancer screening trials using combination of cancer antigen 125 testing and transvaginal ultrasound failed to yield statistically significant mortality reduction. Estimates of ovarian cancer sojourn time—that is, the period from when the cancer is first screen detectable until clinical detection—may inform future screening programs. Methods We modeled ovarian cancer progression as a continuous time Markov chain and estimated screening modality–specific sojourn time and sensitivity using a Bayesian approach. Model inputs were derived from the screening arms (multimodal and ultrasound) of the UK Collaborative Trial of Ovarian Cancer Screening and the Prostate, Lung, Colorectal and Ovarian cancer screening trials. We assessed the quality of our estimates by using the posterior predictive P value. We derived histology-specific sojourn times by adjusting the overall sojourn time based on the corresponding histology-specific survival from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results Program. Results The overall ovarian cancer sojourn time was 2.1 years (posterior predictive P value = .469) in the Prostate, Lung, Colorectal and Ovarian studies, with 65.7% screening sensitivity. The sojourn time was 2.0 years (posterior predictive P value = .532) in the United Kingdom Collaborative Trial of Ovarian Cancer Screening’s multimodal screening arm and 2.4 years (posterior predictive P value = .640) in the ultrasound screening arm, with sensitivities of 93.2% and 64.5%, respectively. Stage-specific screening sensitivities in the Prostate, Lung, Colorectal and Ovarian studies were 39.1% and 82.9% for early-stage and advanced-stage disease, respectively. The histology-specific sojourn times ranged from 0.8 to 1.8 years for type II ovarian cancer and 2.9 to 6.6 years for type I ovarian cancer. Conclusions Annual screening is not effective for all ovarian cancer subtypes. Screening sensitivity for early-stage ovarian cancers is not sufficient for substantial mortality reduction.

Ovarian cancer risk factors in relation to family history

Abstract Background Women with a family history of breast and/or ovarian cancer have an increased ovarian cancer risk. Yet it remains uncertain if common ovarian cancer risk factors—especially those that are modifiable—affect this high-risk population similarly to the general population. Methods Using the Danish and Swedish nationwide registers, we established 2 nested case-control study populations in women with a family history of breast and/or ovarian cancer (2138 ovarian cancers, 85 240 controls) and women without (10 730 ovarian cancers, 429 200 controls). The overall and histology-specific associations were assessed with conditional logistic regression. The country-specific estimates were combined based on a fixed-effect assumption. Results Multiparity, hysterectomy, tubal ligation, salpingectomy, and oral contraceptive (OC) use were associated with a reduced risk of ovarian cancer in women with and without a family history, while endometriosis and menopausal hormone therapy were associated with increased risk. Multiparity and OC use presented protective effects across all histologic subtypes except mucinous ovarian cancer, which was not associated with OC use. Menopausal hormone treatment increased the risk of serous ovarian cancer but decreased the risk of the mucinous and clear cell cancers. Endometriosis was especially related to an increased risk of endometrioid and clear cell ovarian cancer. Conclusion Factors associated with a decreased ovarian cancer risk were similar between women with and without a family history of breast and/or ovarian cancer. Given the higher baseline risk for women with a family history, special attention should be paid to risk factors like endometriosis and nulliparity in this high-risk population.

Understanding risk factors for endometrial cancer in young women

Abstract Background The American Cancer Society recommends physicians inform average-risk women about endometrial cancer risk on reaching menopause, but new diagnoses are rising fastest in women aged younger than 50 years. Educating these younger women about endometrial cancer risks requires knowledge of risk factors. However, endometrial cancer in young women is rare and challenging to study in single study populations. Methods We included 13 846 incident endometrial cancer patients (1639 aged younger than 50 years) and 30 569 matched control individuals from the Epidemiology of Endometrial Cancer Consortium. We used generalized linear models to estimate odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for 6 risk factors and endometrial cancer risk. We created a risk score to evaluate the combined associations and population attributable fractions for these factors. Results In younger and older women, we observed positive associations with body mass index and diabetes and inverse associations with age at menarche, oral contraceptive use, and parity. Current smoking was associated with reduced risk only in women aged 50 years and older (Phet < .01). Body mass index was the strongest risk factor (OR≥35 vs<25 kg/m2 = 5.57, 95% CI = 4.33 to 7.16, for ages younger than 50 years; OR≥35 vs<25 kg/m2 = 4.68, 95% CI = 4.30 to 5.09, for ages 50 years and older; Phet = .14). Possessing at least 4 risk factors was associated with approximately ninefold increased risk in women aged younger than 50 years and approximately fourfold increased risk in women aged 50 years and older (Phet < .01). Together, 59.1% of endometrial cancer in women aged younger than 50 years and 55.6% in women aged 50 years and older were attributable to these factors. Conclusions Our data confirm younger and older women share common endometrial cancer risk factors. Early educational efforts centered on these factors may help mitigate the rising endometrial cancer burden in young women.

Risk prediction models for endometrial cancer: development and validation in an international consortium

Abstract Background Endometrial cancer risk stratification may help target interventions, screening, or prophylactic hysterectomy to mitigate the rising burden of this cancer. However, existing prediction models have been developed in select cohorts and have not considered genetic factors. Methods We developed endometrial cancer risk prediction models using data on postmenopausal White women aged 45-85 years from 19 case-control studies in the Epidemiology of Endometrial Cancer Consortium (E2C2). Relative risk estimates for predictors were combined with age-specific endometrial cancer incidence rates and estimates for the underlying risk factor distribution. We externally validated the models in 3 cohorts: Nurses’ Health Study (NHS), NHS II, and the Prostate, Lung, Colorectal and Ovarian (PLCO) Cancer Screening Trial. Results Area under the receiver operating characteristic curves for the epidemiologic model ranged from 0.64 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.62 to 0.67) to 0.69 (95% CI = 0.66 to 0.72). Improvements in discrimination from the addition of genetic factors were modest (no change in area under the receiver operating characteristic curves in NHS; PLCO = 0.64 to 0.66). The epidemiologic model was well calibrated in NHS II (overall expected-to-observed ratio [E/O] = 1.09, 95% CI = 0.98 to 1.22) and PLCO (overall E/O = 1.04, 95% CI = 0.95 to 1.13) but poorly calibrated in NHS (overall E/O = 0.55, 95% CI = 0.51 to 0.59). Conclusions Using data from the largest, most heterogeneous study population to date (to our knowledge), prediction models based on epidemiologic factors alone successfully identified women at high risk of endometrial cancer. Genetic factors offered limited improvements in discrimination. Further work is needed to refine this tool for clinical or public health practice and expand these models to multiethnic populations.

Fertility-preserving treatments for endometrial intraepithelial neoplasia: the known unknowns

A working group report from the 2024 National Cancer Institute / Gynecologic Cancer Steering Committee endometrial cancer clinical trials planning meeting: refining the approach to endometrial cancer in the immunotherapy era

Abstract Endometrial cancer is now the leading cause of gynecologic cancer death in the United States. Recognizing the urgent need to improve outcomes for patients diagnosed with endometrial cancer, the National Cancer Institute Gynecologic Cancer Steering Committee convened a clinical trials planning meeting, Refining the Approach to Endometrial Cancer in the Immunotherapy Era, on January 8 and 9, 2024. Multidisciplinary experts were charged with addressing critical challenges to optimize treatment of endometrial cancer in the new immunotherapy landscape. As part of the clinical trials planning meeting, working groups were assembled to address several important aspects of clinical trial design. Working group 1 focused on translational science and was tasked with reviewing the scientific literature for data on validated discriminants of response to immunotherapy to inform trial concept development by the therapy-focused groups. The working group established that molecular subtyping of endometrial cancer is now the standard approach for classifying endometrial tumors. Molecular subtyping for prognostic and predictive applications should be considered when assessing biomarkers as well as therapeutic targets. Additionally, strategies to improve immune response like incorporation of radiation as well as therapy sequencing considerations should continue to be explored. A major key observation from working group 1 was lack of validated discriminants for immunotherapy response beyond mismatch repair status, and tumor mutational burden and exploration of additional discriminants of response and resistance will be critical with the increasing use of immunotherapy in endometrial cancer.

Levonorgestrel-releasing intrauterine device therapy vs oral progestin treatment for reproductive-aged patients with endometrial intraepithelial neoplasia: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Abstract Background We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis to examine outcomes of patients with endometrial intraepithelial neoplasia treated with oral progestins or a levonorgestrel-releasing intrauterine device (IUD). Methods We conducted a systematic review across 5 databases to examine outcomes of progestational treatment (oral progestins or levonorgestrel-releasing IUD) for patients with endometrial intraepithelial neoplasia. The primary outcome was the best complete response rate within 12 months of primary progestational treatment. Sensitivity analyses were performed by removing studies with extreme effect sizes. Secondary outcomes included the pooled pregnancy rate. Results We identified 21 eligible studies, including 824 premenopausal patients with endometrial intraepithelial neoplasia, for our meta-analysis. Among these, 459 patients received oral progestin, and 365 patients received levonorgestrel-releasing IUD as a primary progestational treatment. The pooled best complete response proportion within 12 months was 82% (95% confidence interval [CI] = 69% to 91%) following oral progestin treatment and 95% (95% CI = 81% to 99%) following levonorgestrel-releasing IUD treatment. After removing outlier studies, the pooled proportion was 86% (95% CI = 75% to 92%) for the oral progestin group and 96% (95% CI = 91% to 99%) for the levonorgestrel-releasing IUD group, with reduced heterogeneity. The pooled pregnancy rate was 50% (95% CI = 35% to 65%) after oral progestin and 35% (95% CI = 23% to 49%) after levonorgestrel-releasing IUD treatment. Conclusions This meta-analysis provides data on the effectiveness of oral progestins and levonorgestrel-releasing IUD treatment within 12 months of treatment among premenopausal patients with endometrial intraepithelial neoplasia. Although based on small numbers, the rate of pregnancy after treatment is modest. These data may be beneficial for selecting progestational therapies that allow fertility preservation for patients with endometrial intraepithelial neoplasia.

Inflammatory and insulinemic dietary patterns and risk of endometrial cancer among US women

Abstract Background Although unopposed estrogen exposure is considered a major driver of endometrial carcinogenesis, chronic inflammation and insulin resistance and hyperinsulinemia are also major endometrial cancer risk factors. However, it is unclear whether diets with inflammatory or insulinemic potential are associated with risk of endometrial cancer. Methods We followed 48 330 women from the Nurses’ Health Study (1984-2016) and 85 426 women from the Nurses’ Health Study II (1989-2017). Using food frequency questionnaires, we calculated repeated measures of empirical dietary inflammatory pattern (EDIP) and empirical dietary index for hyperinsulinemia (EDIH) scores, which characterize the potential of the whole diet to modulate circulating biomarkers of inflammation or C-peptide, respectively. We used multivariable-adjusted Cox regression to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for type I endometrial cancer risk. Results We documented 1462 type I endometrial cancer cases over 2 823 221 person-years of follow-up. In the pooled multivariable-adjusted analyses, women in the highest compared with lowest quintiles were at higher risk of type I endometrial cancer (EDIP HRQ5vsQ1 = 1.46, 95% CI = 1.24 to 1.73; Ptrend < .001; EDIH HRQ5vsQ1 = 1.58, 95% CI = 1.34 to 1.87; Ptrend < .001). Additional adjustment for body mass index attenuated the associations (EDIP HR = 1.03, 95% CI = 0.87 to 1.22; EDIH HR = 1.01, 95% CI = 0.85 to 1.21), and mediation analyses showed that body mass index may explain 60.4% (95% CI = 37.4% to 79.6%; P < .001) and 71.8% (95% CI = 41.0% to 90.4%; P < .001) of the association of endometrial cancer with EDIP and EDIH, respectively. Conclusions In this large cohort study, higher dietary inflammatory and insulinemic potential were each associated with increased endometrial cancer incidence, and this association may be almost entirely mediated by adiposity.

Comprehensive analysis of germline drivers in endometrial cancer

AbstractBackgroundWe sought to determine the prevalence of germline pathogenic variants (gPVs) in unselected patients with endometrial cancer (EC), define biallelic gPVs within tumors, and describe their associations with clinicopathologic features.MethodsGermline assessment of at least 76 cancer predisposition genes was performed in patients with EC undergoing clinical tumor-normal Memorial Sloan Kettering–Integrated Mutation Profiling of Actionable Cancer Targets (MSK-IMPACT) sequencing from January 1, 2015, to June 30, 2021. In patients with gPVs, biallelic alterations in ECs were identified through analysis of loss of heterozygosity and somatic PVs. Clinicopathologic variables were compared using nonparametric tests.ResultsOf 1625 patients with EC, 216 (13%) had gPVs, and 15 patients had 2 gPVs. There were 231 gPVs in 35 genes (75 [32%] high penetrance; 39 [17%] moderate penetrance; and 117 [51%] low, recessive, or uncertain penetrance). Compared with those without gPVs, patients with gPVs were younger (P = .002), more often White (P = .009), and less obese (P = .025) and had differences in distribution of tumor histology (P = .017) and molecular subtype (P < .001). Among 231 gPVs, 74 (32%) exhibited biallelic inactivation within tumors. For high-penetrance gPVs, 63% (47 of 75) of ECs had biallelic alterations, primarily affecting mismatch repair (MMR) and homologous recombination related genes, including BRCA1,BRCA2, RAD51D, and PALB2. Biallelic inactivation varied across molecular subtypes with highest rates in microsatellite instability-high (MSI-H) or copy-number (CN)–high subtypes (3 of 12 [25%] POLE, 30 of 77 [39%] MSI-H, 27 of 60 [45%] CN-high, 9 of 57 [16%] CN-low; P < .001).ConclusionsOf unselected patients with EC, 13% had gPVs, with 63% of gPVs in high-penetrance genes (MMR and homologous recombination) exhibiting biallelic inactivation, potentially driving cancer development. This supports germline assessment in EC given implications for treatment and cancer prevention.

Genomic Determinants of Early Recurrences in Low-Stage, Low-Grade Endometrioid Endometrial Carcinoma

Abstract Low-stage, low-grade endometrioid endometrial carcinoma (EEC), the most common histologic type of endometrial cancer, typically has a favorable prognosis. A subset of these cancers, however, displays an aggressive clinical course with early recurrences, including distant relapses. All statistical tests were 2-sided. Using a combination of whole-exome and targeted capture sequencing of 65 FIGO stage IA and IB grade 1 EECs treated with surgery alone, we demonstrate that chromosome 1q gain (odds ratio [OR] = 8.09, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.59 to 54.6; P = .02), PIK3CA mutation (OR = 9.16, 95% CI = 1.95 to 61.8; P = .01), and DNA mismatch repair-deficient molecular subtype (OR = 7.92, 95% CI = 1.44 to 87.6; P = .02) are independent predictors of early recurrences within 3 years in this patient population. Chromosome 1q gain was validated in an independent dataset of stage I grade 1 EECs subjected to whole-exome sequencing. Our findings expand on the repertoire of genomic parameters that should be considered in the evaluation of patients with low-stage, low-grade EEC.

Prospective Cohort Study of Pre- and Postdiagnosis Obesity and Endometrial Cancer Survival

AbstractBackgroundDisease-free survival (DFS) and overall survival (OS) associations with anthropometric measures of obesity and changes in these exposures remain unknown among endometrial cancer survivors.MethodsEndometrial cancer survivors diagnosed between 2002 and 2006 completed direct anthropometric measurements and self-reported lifetime weight history during in-person interviews approximately 4 months after diagnosis (peridiagnosis) and approximately 3 years after diagnosis (follow-up). Participants were followed-up until death or March 20, 2019. Cox proportional regression was used to estimate multivariable-adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for body mass index (BMI), weight, waist circumference, and waist-hip ratio with DFS and OS. Statistical tests were 2-sided.ResultsA total of 540 and 425 cancer survivors were assessed peridiagnosis and follow-up, respectively. During the median 14.2 years of follow-up (range = 0.3-16.5 years), 132 participants had a recurrence and/or died (DFS), with 111 deaths overall (OS). Reduced DFS was noted with greater recalled weight 1 year before diagnosis (HR = 1.88, 95% CI = 1.15 to 3.07), BMI 1 year before diagnosis (HR = 1.88, 95% CI = 1.09 to 3.22), and measured peridiagnosis BMI (HR = 2.04, 95% CI = 1.18 to 3.53). Measured peridiagnosis waist circumference of at least 88 cm was associated with decreased DFS (HR = 1.94, 95% CI = 1.24 to 3.03) and OS (HR = 1.90, 95% CI = 1.16 to 3.13). A twofold decrease in DFS and OS was associated with a BMI of at least 5% or weight change from 1 year before diagnosis to peridiagnosis. No associations were observed for the assessment during follow-up.ConclusionsOne-year before- and peridiagnosis anthropometric measures of obesity were associated with reduced survival among endometrial cancer survivors. Anthropometric changes from 1 year before to peridiagnosis may provide an important indication of future survival in this population.

RE: Endometrial Cancer Risk in Women With Germline BRCA1 or BRCA2 Mutations: Multicenter Cohort Study

Oral Contraceptive Use in BRCA1 and BRCA2 Mutation Carriers: Absolute Cancer Risks and Benefits

Abstract Background To help BRCA1 and 2 mutation carriers make informed decisions regarding use of combined-type oral contraceptive preparation (COCP), absolute risk-benefit estimates are needed for COCP-associated cancer. Methods For a hypothetical cohort of 10 000 women, we calculated the increased or decreased cumulative incidence of COCP-associated (breast, ovarian, endometrial) cancer, examining 18 scenarios with differences in duration and timing of COCP use, uptake of prophylactic surgeries, and menopausal hormone therapy. Results COCP use initially increased breast cancer risk and decreased ovarian and endometrial cancer risk long term. For 10 000 BRCA1 mutation carriers, 10 years of COCP use from age 20 to 30 years resulted in 66 additional COCP-associated cancer cases by the age of 35 years, in addition to 625 cases expected for never users. By the age of 70 years such COCP use resulted in 907 fewer cancer cases than the expected 9093 cases in never users. Triple-negative breast cancer estimates resulted in 196 additional COCP-associated cases by age 40 years, in addition to the 1454 expected. For 10 000 BRCA2 mutation carriers using COCP from age 20 to 30 years, 80 excess cancer cases were estimated by age 40 years in addition to 651 expected cases; by the age of 70 years, we calculated 382 fewer cases compared with the 6156 cases expected. The long-term benefit of COCP use diminished after risk-reducing bilateral salpingo-oophorectomy followed by menopausal hormone therapy use. Conclusion Although COCP use in BRCA1 and BRCA2 mutation carriers initially increases breast, ovarian, and endometrial cancer risk, it strongly decreases lifetime cancer risk. Risk-reducing bilateral salpingo-oophorectomy and menopausal hormone therapy use appear to counteract the long-term COCP-benefit.

BRCA1/2 and Endometrial Cancer Risk: Implications for Management

Endometrial Cancer Risk in Women With Germline BRCA1 or BRCA2 Mutations: Multicenter Cohort Study

Abstract Background Endometrial cancer (EC) risk in BReast CAncer gene 1/2 (BRCA1/2) mutation carriers is uncertain; therefore, we assessed this in a large Dutch nationwide cohort study. Methods We selected 5980 BRCA1/2 (3788 BRCA1, 2151 gBRCA2, 41 both BRCA1/BRCA2) and 8451 non-BRCA1/2 mutation carriers from the Hereditary Breast and Ovarian cancer study, the Netherlands cohort. Follow-up started at the date of the nationwide Dutch Pathology Registry coverage (January 1, 1989) or at the age of 25 years (whichever came last) and ended at date of EC diagnosis, last follow-up, or death (whichever came first). EC risk in BRCA1/2 mutation carriers was compared with 1) the general population, estimating standardized incidence ratios (SIRs) based on Dutch population-based incidence rates; and 2) non-BRCA1/2 mutation carriers, using Cox-regression analyses, expressed as hazard ratio (HR). Statistical tests were 2-sided. Results Fifty-eight BRCA1/2 and 33 non-BRCA1/2 mutation carriers developed EC over 119 296 and 160 841 person-years, respectively (SIR = 2.83, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 2.18 to 3.65; and HR = 2.37, 95% CI = 1.53 to 3.69, respectively). gBRCA1 mutation carriers showed increased risks for EC overall (SIR = 3.51, 95% CI = 2.61 to 4.72; HR = 2.91, 95% CI = 1.83 to 4.66), serous-like EC (SIR = 12.64, 95% CI = 7.62 to 20.96; HR = 10.48, 95% CI = 2.95 to 37.20), endometrioid EC (SIR = 2.63, 95% CI = 1.80 to 3.83; HR = 2.01, 95% CI = 1.18 to 3.45), and TP53-mutated EC (HR = 15.71, 95% CI = 4.62 to 53.40). For BRCA2 mutation carriers, overall (SIR = 1.70, 95% CI = 1.01 to 2.87) and serous-like EC risks (SIR = 5.11, 95% CI = 1.92 to 13.63) were increased compared with the general population. Absolute risks by 75 years remained low (overall EC = 3.0%; serous-like EC = 1.1%). Conclusions BRCA1/2 mutation carriers have a two- to threefold increased risk for EC, with highest risk observed for the rare subgroups of serous-like and p53-abnormal EC in BRCA1 mutation carriers.

Disparities in cervical cancer elimination time frames in the United States: a comparative modeling study

Abstract Population-level estimates in time frames for reaching cervical cancer elimination (ie, <4 cases per 100 000 women) in the United States may mask potential disparities in achieving elimination among subpopulations. We used 3 independent Cancer Intervention and Surveillance Modeling Network models to estimate differences in the time to cervical cancer elimination across 7 strata of correlated screening and human papillomavirus vaccination uptake, based on national survey data. Compared with the average population, elimination was achieved at least 22 years earlier for the high-uptake strata and at least 27 years later for the most extreme low-uptake strata. Accounting for correlated uptake impacted the population average time frame by no more than 1 year. Consequently, national average elimination time frames mask substantial disparities in reaching elimination among subpopulations. Addressing inequalities in cervical cancer control could shorten elimination time frames and would ensure more equitable elimination across populations. Furthermore, country-level elimination monitoring could be supplemented by monitoring progress in subpopulations.

Thyroid hormones and epithelial ovarian cancer risk and survival: results from the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition study

Abstract Background Thyroid-stimulating hormone (TSH) and thyroid hormones (free triiodothyronine [fT3] and free thyroxine [fT4]) may influence cancer outcomes, but evidence for ovarian cancer is limited. Methods We conducted a nested case–control study comparing 578 epithelial ovarian cancer (EOC) cases with matched controls within the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC). To examine associations between circulating TSH, fT3, and fT4 levels and EOC risk, we estimated risk ratios (RRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) per SD using conditional logistic regression. Among cases, we evaluated all-cause and EOC-specific survival by prediagnostic hormone levels. Hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals were calculated using multivariable Cox regression. We also estimated covariate-adjusted restricted mean survival time (RMST) and survival probabilities at 5 and 10 years. Results Thyroid hormones were not associated with EOC risk (RR [95% CI] per SD increase: TSH = 0.99 [0.87 to 1.12], fT3 = 1.12 [0.70 to 1.79], and fT4 = 1.08 [0.56 to 2.07]) levels. However, higher TSH levels were associated with better survival (HR [95% CI] per SD: all-cause death = 0.90 [0.82 to 0.99], EOC-specific = 0.88 [0.79 to 0.97]), whereas higher fT4 levels were associated with worse survival (all-cause = 1.10 [1.00 to 1.22], EOC-specific = 1.17 [1.05 to 1.30]), but no association for fT3. RMST and survival probabilities showed similar patterns: for TSH, 10-year RMST and survival increased from 5.3 years and 42.2% in Quartile 1 (Q1) to 6.4 years and 50.7% in Q4. Conversely, for fT4, 10-year RMST declined from 5.6 years (Q1) to 5.1 years Q4, and survival from 46.3% to 37.8%. Conclusion TSH and thyroid hormones might not affect ovarian cancer risk. However, high fT4 and low TSH concentrations may be associated with poorer survival. Further evaluation is suggested in other populations.

Association between racialized economic segregation and stage at diagnosis for 3 screenable cancers in New York City

Abstract Background Racial and economic segregation can create barriers to timely cancer diagnosis and adversely affect survival. This study examines the association between neighborhood-level segregation, measured by the neighborhood-Index of Concentration at Extremes (n-ICE), and stage at diagnosis (advanced [regional/distant] vs localized) for 3 screenable cancers in New York City. Methods We analyzed 98 449 incident cases (breast, 58 970; cervical, 4790; and colorectal, 34 689) using New York State Cancer Registry data (2008-2019). Census tract-level n-ICE measures of racial and/or income-based economic segregation were calculated. Age-adjusted stage-specific incidence rates and advanced-to-localized incidence rate ratios (IRRs) were measured across n-ICE quartiles. Results Advanced-to-localized stage IRRs were significantly higher in the most-deprived and/or non-Hispanic Black (NHB)-concentrated areas (Q1) than the most-affluent and/or most non-Hispanic White (NHW)-concentrated areas (Q4) for breast and cervical cancer (breast: n-ICEIncome, IRRQ1 = 0.71 vs IRRQ4 = 0.48; n-ICENHB, IRRQ1 = 0.75 vs IRRQ4 = 0.53; n-ICENHB+Income, IRRQ1 = 0.74 vs IRRQ4 = 0.47; cervical: n-ICEIncome, IRRQ1 = 1.30 vs IRRQ4 = 0.97; n-ICENHB, IRRQ1 = 1.44 vs IRRQ4 = 0.99; n-ICENHB+Income, IRRQ1 = 1.37 vs IRRQ4 = 0.92) (all P-values < .01). Hispanic concentration alone (n-ICEHispanic) was not associated with disparities; however, its combination with economic deprivation was significant in both cancers (breast: n-ICEHispanic+Income, IRRQ1 = 0.70 vs IRRQ4 = 0.47; cervical: n-ICEHispanic+Income, IRRQ1 = 1.31 vs IRRQ4 = 0.93) (all P-values < .01). All racialized-economic segregation measures (n-ICENHB+Income/n-ICEHispanic+Income) showed increasing IRRs with higher segregation for both cancers (all P-trend < .04). No disparities were observed for colorectal cancer. Conclusions Racialized-economic segregation in New York City was associated with higher advanced-stage diagnoses of breast and cervical cancer but not colorectal cancer. These findings may partially reflect both structural barriers that delay timely diagnosis and the impact of local equity-driven initiatives that broaden colorectal cancer screening access.

Trends in uterine cancer incidence and mortality: insights from a natural history model

Abstract Background Uterine cancer incidence and mortality are increasing, with concomitant disparities in outcomes between racial groups. Natural history modeling can evaluate risk factors, predict future trends, and simulate approaches to reducing mortality and disparities. Methods We designed a natural history model of uterine cancer using a multistage clonal expansion design. The model is informed by National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey, National Health Examination Survey, age, time period, birth cohort, and birth certificate data on reproductive histories and body mass index (BMI). We fit and calibrated the model to Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results data by race and ethnicity as well as histologic subgroup. We projected future incidence and estimated the degree of contribution of BMI, reproductive history, and competing hysterectomy to excess uterine cancer incidence. Results The model accurately replicated Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results incidence for endometrioid, nonendometrioid, and sarcoma subgroups for non-Hispanic Black and non-Hispanic White patients. For endometrioid, nonendometrioid, and sarcomas, BMI-attributable risks are greater for non-Hispanic White than for non-Hispanic Black patients; reproductive history–attributable risks are greater for non-Hispanic Black patients. Between 2018 and 2050, endometrioid incidence is projected to rise by 64.9% in non-Hispanic Black individuals and17.5% in non-Hispanic White individuals; the projected rise for the nonendometrioid subgroup is 41.4% in non-Hispanic Black individuals and 22.5% in non-Hispanic White individuals; the sarcoma incidence projected increase is 36% in non-Hispanic Black individuals and 29.2% in non-Hispanic White individuals. Conclusions Uterine cancer risk is substantially explained by reproductive history and BMI, with differences observed between non-Hispanic Black and non-Hispanic White individuals and future projections indicating perpetuation of disparities. Lower rates of hysterectomy and rising obesity rates will likely contribute to continued increases in uterine cancer incidence.

Racial and ethnic differences in HPV-related cancer incidence in the United States, 2001-2020

Abstract Background Human papillomavirus (HPV) causes cervical cancer and a proportion of oropharyngeal, vulvar, vaginal, penile, and anal cancers. Evaluating racial and ethnic heterogeneity by anatomic site will identify populations with the highest cancer incidence rates (IRs) and help to optimize available prevention strategies. Methods Using the 2001-2020 US Cancer Statistics database, we estimated age-standardized IRs of cervical carcinoma, oropharyngeal, anal, vaginal, vulvar, and penile squamous cell carcinomas (SCCs) by race and ethnicity. We examined changes over time by comparing IRs in 2016-2020 with 2001-2005. Results Between 2001 and 2020, 750 897 HPV-related cancers occurred among 6.17 billion total person-years, with 61% (n = 455 475) in females. Among females, the highest IRs of oropharyngeal (1.6/100 000 person-years), vulvar (2.3/100 000 person-years), and anal (2.1/100 000 person-years) SCC were among White females. The highest IR for vaginal SCC (0.6/100 000 person-years) was among Black females and for cervical carcinoma (10.0/100 000 person-years) among Hispanic females. Among males, the highest IR for oropharyngeal SCC (8.0/100 000 person-years) was among White males, penile SCC (1.3/100 000 person-years) among Hispanic males, and anal SCC (1.5/100 000 person-years) among Black males. From 2001-2005 to 2016-2020, for most racial and ethnic groups, both in terms of absolute incidence, and proportion of the total HPV-related cancer burden, cervical carcinoma and vaginal SCC rates decreased, vulvar and anal SCC increased, and there was no clear pattern in oropharyngeal and penile SCC rates. Conclusion For all cancer types, there were disparate racial and ethnic patterns by anatomic site likely caused by a constellation of factors, including access to preventive care and site-specific HPV prevalence.

Incidence of peritoneal cancer after oophorectomy among BRCA1 and BRCA2 mutation carriers

Abstract Background To estimate the incidence of primary peritoneal cancer after preventive bilateral oophorectomy in women with a BRCA1 or BRCA2 mutation. Methods A total of 6310 women with a BRCA1 or BRCA2 mutation who underwent a preventive bilateral oophorectomy were followed for a mean of 7.8 years from oophorectomy. The 20-year cumulative incidence of peritoneal cancer post-oophorectomy was estimated using the Kaplan-Meier method. A left-truncated Cox proportional hazards analysis was used to estimate the hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) associated with the age at oophorectomy, year of oophorectomy, and family history of ovarian cancer as well as hormonal and reproductive risk factors. Results Fifty-five women developed primary peritoneal cancer (n = 45 in BRCA1, 8 in BRCA2, and 2 in women with a mutation in both genes). Their mean age at oophorectomy was 48.9 years. The annual risk of peritoneal cancer was 0.14% for women with a BRCA1 mutation and 0.06% for women with a BRCA2 mutation. The 20-year cumulative risk of peritoneal cancer from the date of oophorectomy was 2.7% for BRCA1 carriers and 0.9% for BRCA2 mutation carriers. There were no peritoneal cancers in BRCA1 carriers who had the operation before age 35 or in BRCA2 carriers who had the operation before age 45. Conclusions For BRCA1 mutation carriers, the annual risk of peritoneal cancer for 20 years post-oophorectomy is 0.14% per year. The risk is lower for BRCA2 carriers (0.06% per year).

State-level disparities in cervical cancer prevention and outcomes in the United States: a modeling study

Abstract Background Despite human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccines’ availability for over a decade, coverage across the United States varies. Although some states have tried to increase HPV vaccination coverage, most model-based analyses focus on national impacts. We evaluated hypothetical changes in HPV vaccination coverage at the national and state levels for California, New York, and Texas using a mathematical model. Methods We developed a new mathematical model of HPV transmission and cervical cancer, creating national- and state-level models, incorporating country- and state-specific vaccination coverage and cervical cancer incidence and mortality. We quantified the national- and state-level impact of increasing HPV vaccination coverage to 80% by 2025 or 2030 on cervical cancer outcomes and the time to elimination defined as less than 4 per 100 000 women. Results Increasing vaccination coverage to 80% in Texas over 10 years could reduce cervical cancer incidence by 50.9% (95% credible interval [CrI] = 46.6%-56.1%) by 2100, from 1.58 (CrI = 1.19-2.09) to 0.78 (CrI = 0.57-1.02) per 100 000 women. Similarly, New York could see a 27.3% (CrI = 23.9%-31.5%) reduction from 1.43 (CrI = 0.93-2.07) to 1.04 (CrI = 0.66-1.53) per 100 000 women, and California a 24.4% (CrI = 20.0%-30.0%) reduction from 1.01 (CrI = 0.66-1.44) to 0.76 (CrI = 0.50-1.09) per 100 000 women. Achieving 80% coverage in 5 years will provide slightly larger and sooner reductions. If the vaccination coverage levels in 2019 continue, cervical cancer elimination could occur nationally by 2051 (CrI = 2034-2064), but state timelines may vary by decades. Conclusion Targeting an HPV vaccination coverage of 80% by 2030 will disproportionately benefit states with low coverage and higher cervical cancer incidence. Geographically focused analyses can better inform priorities.

A framework for assessing interactions for risk stratification models: the example of ovarian cancer

Abstract Generally, risk stratification models for cancer use effect estimates from risk/protective factor analyses that have not assessed potential interactions between these exposures. We have developed a 4-criterion framework for assessing interactions that includes statistical, qualitative, biological, and practical approaches. We present the application of this framework in an ovarian cancer setting because this is an important step in developing more accurate risk stratification models. Using data from 9 case-control studies in the Ovarian Cancer Association Consortium, we conducted a comprehensive analysis of interactions among 15 unequivocal risk and protective factors for ovarian cancer (including 14 non-genetic factors and a 36-variant polygenic score) with age and menopausal status. Pairwise interactions between the risk/protective factors were also assessed. We found that menopausal status modifies the association among endometriosis, first-degree family history of ovarian cancer, breastfeeding, and depot-medroxyprogesterone acetate use and disease risk, highlighting the importance of understanding multiplicative interactions when developing risk prediction models.

Common analgesics and ovarian cancer survival: the Ovarian cancer Prognosis And Lifestyle (OPAL) Study

Abstract Background Most women with ovarian cancer (OC) are diagnosed with advanced disease. They often experience recurrence after primary treatment, and their subsequent prognosis is poor. Our goal was to evaluate the association between use of nonsteroidal antiinflammatory drugs (NSAIDs), including regular and low-dose aspirin, and 5-year cancer-specific survival after an OC diagnosis. Methods The Ovarian cancer Prognosis And Lifestyle study is a prospective population-based cohort of 958 Australian women with OC. Information was gathered through self-completed questionnaires. We classified NSAID use during the year prediagnosis and postdiagnosis as none or occasional (<1 d/wk), infrequent (1-3 d/wk), and frequent (≥4 d/wk) use. We measured survival from the start of primary treatment: surgery or neoadjuvant chemotherapy for analyses of prediagnosis use, or 12 months after starting treatment (postdiagnosis use) until the earliest of date of death from OC (other deaths were censored) or last follow-up to 5 years. We used Cox proportional hazards regression to estimate adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) and applied inverse-probability of treatment weighting to minimize confounding. We also calculated restricted mean survival times. Results Compared with nonusers and infrequent users, we observed better survival associated with frequent NSAID use prediagnosis (HR = 0.73, 95% CI = 0.55 to 0.97) or postdiagnosis (HR = 0.65, 95% CI = 0.45 to 0.94). Estimates were similar for aspirin and nonaspirin NSAIDs, new and continuous users and in weighted models. These differences would translate to a 2.5-month increase in mean survival by 5 years postdiagnosis. There was no association with acetaminophen. Conclusions Our findings confirm a previous study suggesting NSAID use might improve OC survival.

Artificial intelligence–based image analysis in clinical testing: lessons from cervical cancer screening

Abstract Novel screening and diagnostic tests based on artificial intelligence (AI) image recognition algorithms are proliferating. Some initial reports claim outstanding accuracy followed by disappointing lack of confirmation, including our own early work on cervical screening. This is a presentation of lessons learned, organized as a conceptual step-by-step approach to bridge the gap between the creation of an AI algorithm and clinical efficacy. The first fundamental principle is specifying rigorously what the algorithm is designed to identify and what the test is intended to measure (eg, screening, diagnostic, or prognostic). Second, designing the AI algorithm to minimize the most clinically important errors. For example, many equivocal cervical images cannot yet be labeled because the borderline between cases and controls is blurred. To avoid a misclassified case-control dichotomy, we have isolated the equivocal cases and formally included an intermediate, indeterminate class (severity order of classes: case>indeterminate>control). The third principle is evaluating AI algorithms like any other test, using clinical epidemiologic criteria. Repeatability of the algorithm at the borderline, for indeterminate images, has proven extremely informative. Distinguishing between internal and external validation is also essential. Linking the AI algorithm results to clinical risk estimation is the fourth principle. Absolute risk (not relative) is the critical metric for translating a test result into clinical use. Finally, generating risk-based guidelines for clinical use that match local resources and priorities is the last principle in our approach. We are particularly interested in applications to lower-resource settings to address health disparities. We note that similar principles apply to other domains of AI-based image analysis for medical diagnostic testing.

Ovarian and Breast Cancer Risks Associated With Pathogenic Variants in RAD51C and RAD51D

Abstract Background The purpose of this study was to estimate precise age-specific tubo-ovarian carcinoma (TOC) and breast cancer (BC) risks for carriers of pathogenic variants in RAD51C and RAD51D. Methods We analyzed data from 6178 families, 125 with pathogenic variants in RAD51C, and 6690 families, 60 with pathogenic variants in RAD51D. TOC and BC relative and cumulative risks were estimated using complex segregation analysis to model the cancer inheritance patterns in families while adjusting for the mode of ascertainment of each family. All statistical tests were two-sided. Results Pathogenic variants in both RAD51C and RAD51D were associated with TOC (RAD51C: relative risk [RR] = 7.55, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 5.60 to 10.19; P = 5 × 10-40; RAD51D: RR = 7.60, 95% CI = 5.61 to 10.30; P = 5 × 10-39) and BC (RAD51C: RR = 1.99, 95% CI = 1.39 to 2.85; P = 1.55 × 10-4; RAD51D: RR = 1.83, 95% CI = 1.24 to 2.72; P = .002). For both RAD51C and RAD51D, there was a suggestion that the TOC relative risks increased with age until around age 60 years and decreased thereafter. The estimated cumulative risks of developing TOC to age 80 years were 11% (95% CI = 6% to 21%) for RAD51C and 13% (95% CI = 7% to 23%) for RAD51D pathogenic variant carriers. The estimated cumulative risks of developing BC to 80 years were 21% (95% CI = 15% to 29%) for RAD51C and 20% (95% CI = 14% to 28%) for RAD51D pathogenic variant carriers. Both TOC and BC risks for RAD51C and RAD51D pathogenic variant carriers varied by cancer family history and could be as high as 32–36% for TOC, for carriers with two first-degree relatives diagnosed with TOC, or 44–46% for BC, for carriers with two first-degree relatives diagnosed with BC. Conclusions These estimates will facilitate the genetic counseling of RAD51C and RAD51D pathogenic variant carriers and justify the incorporation of RAD51C and RAD51D into cancer risk prediction models.

Primary human papillomavirus testing vs cotesting: clinical outcomes in populations with different disease prevalence

Abstract Implementation of primary human papillomavirus (HPV) testing has been slow in the United States perhaps because of concerns of decreased sensitivity compared with concurrent HPV and cytology testing (“cotesting”). We used the National Breast and Cervical Cancer Early Detection Program and the Kaiser Permanente of Northern California cohort to quantify potential trade-offs with primary HPV compared with cotesting in 4 US populations with differing precancer or cancer prevalence. In all settings, cotesting required more lab tests and more colposcopies compared with primary HPV testing. Additional cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade 3 or cancer immediately detected from cotesting vs primary HPV decreased with decreasing population-average cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade 3 or cancer prevalence from 71 per 100 000 screened among never or rarely screened individuals in the National Breast and Cervical Cancer Early Detection Program (prevalence = 1212 per 100 000) to 4 per 100 000 screened among individuals with prior HPV-negative results in Kaiser Permanente of Northern California (prevalence = 86 per 100 000). These data suggest that cotesting confer an unfavorable benefit-to-harm ratio over primary HPV testing.

Serum concentrations of perfluoroalkyl and polyfluoroalkyl substances and risk of ovarian cancer

Abstract Background Perfluoroalkyl and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) are persistent, widespread environmental contaminants, and some are endocrine disrupting. Studies of gynecologic cancers are limited; we evaluated ovarian cancer, a rare, often fatal malignancy. Methods This nested case-control study included 318 ovarian cancer cases and 472 individually matched female controls in the Prostate, Lung, Colorectal and Ovarian Cancer Screening Trial, which recruited participants aged 55-74 years from 10 US study centers (1993-2001). We looked at cases through 2016 and quantitated 8 PFAS in prediagnostic serum samples. We estimated odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for continuous (log2-transformed) and categorized PFAS concentrations by using conditional logistic regression models, implicitly adjusting for matching factors (age, center, year of random assignment, year of blood draw, race and ethnicity) and adjusting for smoking, body mass index, family history of cancer, menopausal hormone therapy and oral contraceptive use, parity, and number of freeze-thaw cycles. Results We found a positive association with ovarian cancer for a doubling in 2-(N-methyl-perfluorooctane sulfonamido) acetic acid (MeFOSAA) concentrations (OR for log2 = 1.24, 95% CI = 1.03 to 1.49) and 62% greater risk among those in the highest quartile (OR for quartile 4 vs quartile 1 = 1.62, 95% CI = 1.03 to 2.54; P for trend = .02). Perfluorooctane sulfonic acid (PFOS) was associated with increased risk (OR for log2 = 1.47, 95% CI = 1.05 to 2.06), with no quartile trend (P for trend = .79). Associations with perfluorononanoic acid (OR for log2 = 1.36, 95% CI = 0.95 to 1.95) and perfluorodecanoic acid (OR for log2 = 1.35, 95% CI = 0.94 to 1.95) were suggested, with nonmonotonic quartile trends (P for trend = .12 to .21). The MeFOSAA associations were strongest in women aged 55-59 years (OR for log 2 = 1.60, 95% CI = 1.13 to 2.27), more moderate in women aged 60-64 years (OR for log2 = 1.31, 95% CI = 0.90 to 1.90), and null among women 65 years of age and older (OR for log2 = 1.02, 95% CI = 0.73 to 1.43; P for heterogeneity = .22). Associations persisted in cases diagnosed 8 years or more after blood collection. Conclusions These findings offer novel evidence for PFAS as ovarian cancer risk factors, particularly PFOS and MeFOSAA, a PFOS precursor.

Population-level incidence of human papillomavirus–positive oropharyngeal, cervical, and anal cancers, by smoking status

Abstract We estimated the population-level incidence of human papillomavirus (HPV)–positive oropharyngeal, cervical, and anal cancers by smoking status. We combined HPV DNA genotyping data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s Cancer Registry Sentinel Surveillance System with data from the Kentucky Cancer Registry and Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System across smoking status. During 2004-2005 and 2014-2015 in Kentucky, most cases of oropharyngeal (63.3%), anal (59.7%), and cervical (54.9%) cancer were among individuals who ever smoked. The population-level incidence rate was higher among individuals who ever smoked than among those who never smoked for HPV-positive oropharyngeal (7.8 vs 2.1; adjusted incidence rate ratio = 2.6), cervical (13.7 vs 6.8; adjusted incidence rate ratio = 2.0), and anal (3.9 vs 1.6; adjusted incidence rate ratio = 2.5) cancers. These findings indicate that smoking is associated with increased risk of HPV-positive oropharyngeal, cervical, and anal cancers, and the population-level burden of these cancers is higher among individuals who ever smoked.

Use of Low-Value Cancer Care in Practices Acquired by Private Equity Firms

Abstract Private equity (PE) acquisition of medical practices has been associated with increased prices and use of lucrative treatments. Using Medicare data 2015 to 2021, we compared the prevalence of low-value cancer treatments between PE-owned and non-PE-owned practices. The five low-value treatments were: granulocyte colony stimulating factors (GCSF) for low-risk chemotherapy; denosumab for castration sensitive prostate cancer; nab-paclitaxel for breast or lung cancer; addition of bevacizumab for ovarian cancer; and biologic drugs with biosimilar alternatives. The primary outcome was receipt of a low-value treatment. Comparing patients diagnosed when their oncologist was vs was not practicing at a PE-owned address, adjusted prevalence differences of low-value treatments were: -2.8%-points (-5.5 to -0.2) for GCSF; +3.7%-points (-7.3 to 14.7) for denosumab; -0.7%-points (-3.9 to 1.5) for nab-paclitaxel; -6.5%-points (-12.5 to -0.4) for bevacizumab; and -2.9%-points (-6.0 to 0.2) for biologics. Overall, PE ownership was not associated with increased prevalence of low-value cancer treatments.

Kidney function in patients with ovarian cancer treated with poly (ADP-ribose) polymerase (PARP) inhibitors

Abstract Background Poly (ADP-ribose) polymerase inhibitors (PARPi) have revolutionized the treatment of ovarian cancer; however, real-world data on kidney function among patients treated with PARPi are lacking. Methods We identified adults treated with olaparib or niraparib between 2015 and 2021 at a major cancer center in Boston, MA, USA. We determined the incidence of any acute kidney injury (AKI), defined as at least a 1.5-fold rise in serum creatinine from baseline in the first 12 months following PARPi initiation. We calculated the percentage of patients with any AKI and sustained AKI and adjudicated the etiologies by manual chart review. We compared trajectories in estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) among PARPi-treated and carboplatin and paclitaxel-treated patients with ovarian cancer, matched by baseline eGFR. Results Of 269 patients, 60 (22.3%) developed AKI, including 43 of 194 (22.1%) olaparib-treated patients and 17 of 75 (22.7%) niraparib-treated patients. Only 9 of 269 (3.3%) had AKI attributable to the PARPi. Of the 60 patients with AKI, 21 (35%) had sustained AKI, of whom 6 had AKI attributable to the PARPi (2.2% of the whole cohort). eGFR declined within 30 days post-PARPi initiation by 9.61 (SD = 11.017)  mL/min per 1.73 m2 but recovered by 8.39 (SD = 14.05)  mL/min per 1.73 m2 within 90 days after therapy cessation. There was no difference in eGFR at 12 months post-therapy initiation in patients receiving PARPi or controls receiving carboplatin and paclitaxel (P = .29). Conclusions AKI is common following PARPi initiation as is a transient decline in eGFR; however, sustained AKI directly attributable to the PARPi and long-term eGFR decline are uncommon.

RE: Heterozygous BRCA1 and BRCA2 and mismatch repair gene pathogenic variants in children and adolescents with cancer

Use of menopausal hormone therapy and ovarian cancer risk in a French cohort study

Abstract Background Epidemiological studies have found that menopausal hormone therapy (MHT) use is associated with an increased ovarian cancer risk. However, whether different MHT types confer the same level of risk is unclear. We estimated the associations between different MHT types and the risk of ovarian cancer in a prospective cohort. Methods The study population included 75 606 postmenopausal women from the E3N cohort. Exposure to MHT was identified from self-reports in biennial questionnaires between 1992 and 2004 and from drug claim data matched to the cohort between 2004 and 2014. Hazard ratios and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) of ovarian cancer were estimated using multivariable Cox proportional hazards models with MHT as a time-varying exposure. Tests of statistical significance were 2-sided. Results Over an average 15.3 years follow-up, 416 ovarian cancers were diagnosed. Hazard ratios of ovarian cancer associated with ever use of estrogens combined with progesterone or dydrogesterone and ever use of estrogens combined with other progestagen were equal to 1.28 (95% CI = 1.04 to 1.57) and 0.81 (95% CI = 0.65 to 1.00), respectively (Phomogeneity = .003), compared with never use. The hazard ratio for unopposed estrogen use was 1.09 (95% CI = 0.82 to 1.46). We found no trend according to duration of use or time since last use except for estrogens combined with progesterone or dydrogesterone, which showed decreasing risk with increasing time since last use. Conclusion Different MHT types may impact ovarian cancer risk differentially. The possibility that MHT containing progestagens other than progesterone or dydrogesterone may confer some protection should be evaluated in other epidemiological studies.

Invasive cervical cancer incidence following bivalent human papillomavirus vaccination: a population-based observational study of age at immunization, dose, and deprivation

Abstract Background High-risk human papillomavirus causes cervical cancer. Vaccines have been developed that significantly reduce the incidence of preinvasive and invasive disease. This population-based observational study used linked screening, immunization, and cancer registry data from Scotland to assess the influence of age, number of doses, and deprivation on the incidence of invasive disease following administration of the bivalent vaccine. Methods Data for women born between January 1, 1988, and June 5, 1996, were extracted from the Scottish cervical cancer screening system in July 2020 and linked to cancer registry, immunization, and deprivation data. Incidence of invasive cervical cancer per 100 000 person-years and vaccine effectiveness were correlated with vaccination status, age at vaccination, and deprivation; Kaplan Meier curves were calculated. Results No cases of invasive cancer were recorded in women immunized at 12 or 13 years of age irrespective of the number of doses. Women vaccinated at 14 to 22 years of age and given 3 doses of the bivalent vaccine showed a significant reduction in incidence compared with all unvaccinated women (3.2/100 000 [95% confidence interval (CI) = 2.1 to 4.6] vs 8.4 [95% CI = 7.2 to 9.6]). Unadjusted incidence was significantly higher in women from most deprived (Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation 1) than least deprived (Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation 5) areas (10.1/100 000 [95% CI = 7.8 to 12.8] vs 3.9 [95% CI = 2.6 to 5.7]). Women from the most deprived areas showed a significant reduction in incidence following 3 doses of vaccine (13.1/100 000 [95% CI = 9.95 to 16.9] vs 2.29 [95% CI = 0.62 to 5.86]). Conclusion Our findings confirm that the bivalent vaccine prevents the development of invasive cervical cancer and that even 1 or 2 doses 1 month apart confer benefit if given at 12-13 years of age. At older ages, 3 doses are required for statistically significant vaccine effectiveness. Women from more deprived areas benefit more from vaccination than those from less deprived areas.

Clonal Hematopoiesis–Associated Gene Mutations in a Clinical Cohort of 448 Patients With Ovarian Cancer

Abstract Background Cancer patients are at risk of secondary therapy–related myeloid neoplasms (t-MNs). Acquired blood-specific mutations in clonal hematopoiesis (CH)–associated genes are t-MN risk factors, and their occurrence associated with cancer therapy and age. Patients with ovarian cancer (OC) showed a particularly high prevalence of CH–associated gene mutations, which may additionally be explained by the high proportion of a hereditary disease cause in this cancer entity. Methods We performed a retrospective analysis of 448 OC patients enrolled in the AGO-TR1 study; 249 were enrolled at primary diagnosis and 199 at platinum-sensitive recurrence. Analyses included the most frequently altered CH–associated genes (ASXL1, DNMT3A, GNAS, JAK2, PPM1D, SF3B1, SH2B3, SRSF2, TET2, TP53). Results were analyzed according to the BRCA1/2 germline (gBRCA1/2) mutation status. All statistical tests were 2-sided. Results Advanced age at blood draw and a high number of prior platinum-based chemotherapy lines were risk factors to acquire CH–associated gene mutations, with gene-specific effects observed. Binomial logistic regression suggested increased probabilities for gBRCA1/2 mutation carriers to acquire CH-associated PPM1D and TP53 gene mutations (PPM1D: odds ratio = 4.30, 95% confidence interval = 1.48 to 12.46, P = .007; TP53: odds ratio = 6.20, 95% confidence interval = 0.98 to 53.9, P = .06). This observation was due to a statistically significantly increased number of platinum-based chemotherapy lines in gBRCA1/2 mutation carriers vs noncarriers (PPM1D: mean [SD] = 2.04 [1.27] vs 1.04 [0.99], P < .001; TP53: mean [SD] = 2.83 [1.33] vs 1.07 [1.01], P < .001). No interaction between platinum-based chemotherapy and gBRCA1/2 mutation status with the occurrence of CH–associated gene mutations was observed. Conclusions A positive gBRCA1/2 mutation status is not a risk factor to acquire CH–associated gene mutations. OC patients may benefit from monitoring CH–associated gene mutations, especially following carboplatin exposure. Future clinical studies are required to assess whether treatment regimen should be adapted according to individual t-MN risks.

Response to Nahshon and Lavie

Response to Tomao, Panici, and Tomao

A novel human papillomavirus and host DNA methylation score and detection of cervical adenocarcinoma

Abstract Background The widespread introduction of Pap testing in the 1960s was followed by substantial reductions in the incidence of cervical squamous cell cancer (SCC). However, the incidence of cervical adenocarcinoma (ADC) did not decrease, likely because of low Pap test sensitivity for ADC and adenocarcinoma in situ (AIS). This study assessed a novel human papillomavirus (HPV) and host DNA Methylation Score for AIS and ADC screening. Methods We measured methylation levels at CpG sites in the L2/L1 open reading frames of HPV16, HPV18, and HPV45—as well as 2 human loci, DCC and HS3ST2. Specifically, we tested exfoliated cervicovaginal cells from women in the HPV Persistence and Progression (PaP) cohort who were positive for 1 of HPV16, 18, or 45, including: 1) 176 with AIS/ADC, 2) 353 with cervical intraepithelial neoplasia–3 (CIN3) or SCC, and 3) controls who either cleared (HPV-Clearers; n = 579) or had persistent HPV16, 18, or 45 infection (HPV-Persisters; n = 292). CpG site–specific methylation percentages were measured using our reported next-generation methods. The Methylation Score was the average methylation percentage across all 35 CpG sites tested. Results Each individual CpG site had higher methylation percentages in exfoliated cervicovaginal cells collected from patients with AIS/ADC, and as well as those with CIN3/SCC, relative to either control group (weakest P  = .004). The Methylation Score for AIS/ADC had a sensitivity of 74% and specificity of 89%. The multivariate odds ratio (OR) between the Methylation Score (4th vs 1st quartile) for AIS/ADC was ORq4-q1 = 49.01 (PBenjamini-Hochberg = 4.64E-12), using HPV-Clearers as controls. CIN3/SCC had similar, albeit weaker, associations with the Methylation Score. Conclusions HPV16/18/45-infected women with Methylation Scores in the highest quartile had very high odds of AIS/ADC, suggesting they may warrant careful histologic evaluation of the cervical transition zone (eg, conization or loop electrosurgical excision procedure [LEEP]).

Lifetime ovulatory years and risk of epithelial ovarian cancer: a multinational pooled analysis

Abstract Background The role of ovulation in epithelial ovarian cancer (EOC) is supported by the consistent protective effects of parity and oral contraceptive use. Whether these factors protect through anovulation alone remains unclear. We explored the association between lifetime ovulatory years (LOY) and EOC. Methods LOY was calculated using 12 algorithms. Odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) estimated the association between LOY or LOY components and EOC among 26 204 control participants and 21 267 case patients from 25 studies. To assess whether LOY components act through ovulation suppression alone, we compared beta coefficients obtained from regression models with expected estimates assuming 1 year of ovulation suppression has the same effect regardless of source. Results LOY was associated with increased EOC risk (OR per year increase = 1.014, 95% CI = 1.009 to 1.020 to OR per year increase = 1.044, 95% CI = 1.041 to 1.048). Individual LOY components, except age at menarche, also associated with EOC. The estimated model coefficient for oral contraceptive use and pregnancies were 4.45 times and 12- to 15-fold greater than expected, respectively. LOY was associated with high-grade serous, low-grade serous, endometrioid, and clear cell histotypes (ORs per year increase = 1.054, 1.040, 1.065, and 1.098, respectively) but not mucinous tumors. Estimated coefficients of LOY components were close to expected estimates for high-grade serous but larger than expected for low-grade serous, endometrioid, and clear cell histotypes. Conclusions LOY is positively associated with nonmucinous EOC. Differences between estimated and expected model coefficients for LOY components suggest factors beyond ovulation underlie the associations between LOY components and EOC in general and for non-HGSOC.

BRCA1Promoter Methylation and Clinical Outcomes in Ovarian Cancer: An Individual Patient Data Meta-Analysis

AbstractBackgroundBRCA1 methylation has been associated with homologous recombination deficiency, a biomarker of platinum sensitivity. Studies evaluating BRCA1-methylated tubal and ovarian cancer (OC) do not consistently support improved survival following platinum chemotherapy. We examine the characteristics of BRCA1-methylated OC in a meta-analysis of individual participant data.MethodsData of 2636 participants across 15 studies were analyzed. BRCA1-methylated tumors were defined according to their original study. Associations between BRCA1 methylation and clinicopathological characteristics were evaluated. The effects of methylation on overall survival (OS) and progression-free survival (PFS) were examined using mixed-effects models. All statistical tests were 2-sided.Results430 (16.3%) tumors were BRCA1-methylated. BRCA1 methylation was associated with younger age and advanced-stage, high-grade serous OC. There were no survival differences between BRCA1-methylated and non–BRCA1-methylated OC (median PFS = 20.0 vs 18.5 months, hazard ratio [HR] = 1.01, 95% CI = 0.87 to 1.16; P = .98; median OS = 46.6 vs 48.0 months, HR = 1.02, 95% CI = 0.87 to 1.18; P = .96). Where BRCA1/2 mutations were evaluated (n = 1248), BRCA1 methylation displayed no survival advantage over BRCA1/2-intact (BRCA1/2 wild-type non–BRCA1-methylated) OC. Studies used different methods to define BRCA1 methylation. Where BRCA1 methylation was determined using methylation-specific polymerase chain reaction and gel electrophoresis (n = 834), it was associated with improved survival (PFS: HR = 0.80, 95% CI = 0.66 to 0.97; P = .02; OS: HR = 0.80, 95% CI = 0.63 to 1.00; P = .05) on mixed-effects modeling.ConclusionBRCA1-methylated OC displays similar clinicopathological features to BRCA1-mutated OC but is not associated with survival. Heterogeneity within BRCA1 methylation assays influences associations. Refining these assays may better identify cases with silenced BRCA1 function and improved patient outcomes.

Timing of depression in relation to risk of ovarian cancer

Abstract Background Several studies have suggested that depression may be associated with increased risk of ovarian cancer. Less is known about whether timing matters regarding when depression occurs. To provide evidence for an etiologically relevant exposure period, we examined depression occurring during the time in which precursor lesions develop and progress to invasive carcinoma with the risk of developing ovarian cancer. Methods Using data from 2 prospective cohorts (1992-2015), we divided follow-up into consecutive 2-year periods for analytic purposes, referred to as “cancer ascertainment periods.” We estimated associations of depression in the 10 years before each cancer ascertainment period with incident cancer, using Cox proportional hazards models. Next, we estimated associations of depression occurring up to 18 years before each ascertainment period, in 2-year increments, with incident cancer. We adjusted for demographic, health, and behavioral factors. All tests of statistical significance were two-sided, with a P-value threshold of less than .05. Results Depression occurring in the 10 prior years was associated with 30% greater risk of cancer (hazard ratio [HR] = 1.30, 95% confidence interval = 1.15 to 1.46). Associations were similar in fully adjusted models (HR = 1.27). Depression occurring in the 14 years before ascertainment was associated with elevated risk, although only estimates for depression 0-2, 6-8, and 8-10 years before ascertainment reached statistical significance (HR range = 1.20-1.36). Conclusion Depression occurring up to 14 years before cancer ascertainment was associated with greater cancer risk. This is the time of precursor progression to invasive ovarian carcinoma, suggesting depression may be an ovarian cancer-promoting agent.

High-grade serous carcinoma occurring after risk-reducing salpingo-oophorectomy in BRCA1/2 germline pathogenic variant carriers

Abstract Background Risk-reducing salpingo-oophorectomy (RRSO) effectively prevents high-grade serous carcinoma (HGSC) in BRCA1/2 germline pathogenic variant (GPV) carriers. Still, some women develop HGSC after RRSO without pathological findings. This study assessed long-term incidence and risk factors for developing HGSC after RRSO without pathological findings. Methods BRCA1/2 GPV carriers were selected from the Hereditary Breast and Ovarian cancer in the Netherlands (HEBON) cohort. Follow-up data for HGSC after RRSO were obtained from the Dutch Nationwide Pathology Databank (PALGA) and confirmed by histopathological review. Cumulative incidence rates of HGSC were calculated using Kaplan-Meier analyses. A Cox proportional hazards model was used to calculate hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for factors associated with an increased risk of HGSC after RRSO without pathological findings. Results A total of 2519 women were included, with a median follow-up of 13.4 years (range: 0.0-27.6 years). The 20-year cumulative incidence rate of HGSC was 1.5% (95% CI = 0.0 to 2.1) for BRCA1 and 0.2% (95% CI = 0.0 to 1.4) for BRCA2 GPV carriers. All women who developed HGSC underwent RRSO after the recommended age. Incomplete embedding of the RRSO specimen (HR = 4.2, 95% CI = 1.4 to 12.6), higher age at RRSO (HR per year = 1.1, 95% CI = 1.0 to 1.1), and carrying a BRCA1 GPV (HR = 12.1, 95% CI = 1.6 to 91.2) were associated with increased risk of HGSC. Conclusions In BRCA1/2 GPV carriers, long-term incidence of HGSC after RRSO without pathological findings was low. Strict adherence to guidelines regarding timely RRSO followed by complete specimen embedding can further reduce the risk of HGSC in the years after RRSO.

Estimating the Natural History of Cervical Carcinogenesis Using Simulation Models: A CISNET Comparative Analysis

Abstract Background The natural history of human papillomavirus (HPV)-induced cervical cancer (CC) is not directly observable, yet the age of HPV acquisition and duration of preclinical disease (dwell time) influences the effectiveness of alternative preventive policies. We performed a Cancer Intervention and Surveillance Modeling Network (CISNET) comparative modeling analysis to characterize the age of acquisition of cancer-causing HPV infections and implied dwell times for distinct phases of cervical carcinogenesis. Methods Using four CISNET-cervical models with varying underlying structures but fit to common US epidemiological data, we estimated the age of acquisition of causal HPV infections and dwell times associated with three phases of cancer development: HPV, high-grade precancer, and cancer sojourn time. We stratified these estimates by HPV genotype under both natural history and CC screening scenarios, because screening prevents cancer development that affects the mix of detected cancers. Results The median time from HPV acquisition to cancer detection ranged from 17.5 to 26.0 years across the four models. Three models projected that 50% of unscreened women acquired their causal HPV infection between ages 19 and 23 years, whereas one model projected these infections occurred later (age 34 years). In the context of imperfect compliance with US screening guidelines, the median age of causal infection was 4.4–15.9 years later compared with model projections in the absence of screening. Conclusions These validated CISNET-CC models, which reflect some uncertainty in the development of CC, elucidate important drivers of HPV vaccination and CC screening policies and emphasize the value of comparative modeling when evaluating public health policies.

Real-World HPV Vaccine Effectiveness Studies: Guideposts for Interpretation of Current and Future Studies

The Orderly Incorporation of Continuing Technologic Advances Into Cervical Cancer Screening

Cervical Precancers and Cancers Attributed to HPV Types by Race and Ethnicity: Implications for Vaccination, Screening, and Management

AbstractBackgroundRacial and ethnic variations in attribution of cervical precancer and cancer to human papillomavirus (HPV) types may result in different HPV vaccine protection, screening test coverage, and clinical management.MethodsPooling data from 7 US studies, we calculated the proportional attribution of precancers and cancers to HPV types using HPV DNA typing from diagnosis. All statistical tests were 2-sided.ResultsFor all racial and ethnic groups, most cases of cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade 3 (CIN3) (84.2%-90.8% of 5526) and squamous cell carcinoma (SCC) (90.4%-93.8% of 1138) were attributed to types targeted by the 9-valent vaccine. A higher proportion of CIN3s were attributed to nonvaccine HPV types among non-Hispanic Black women (15.8%) compared with non-Hispanic Asian or Pacific Islander (9.7%; P = .002), non-Hispanic White (9.2%; P < .001), and Hispanic (11.3%; P = .004) women. The proportion of SCCs attributed to 9-valent types was similar by race and ethnicity (P = .80). A higher proportion of CIN3s were attributed to nonvaccine HPV35 among non-Hispanic Black (9.0%) compared with non-Hispanic Asian or Pacific Islander (2.2%), non-Hispanic White (2.5%), and Hispanic (3.0%; all P < .001) women. Compared with CIN3, the proportion of SCCs attributed to HPV35 among non-Hispanic Black women (3.2%) was lower and closer to other groups (0.3%-2.1%; P = .70).ConclusionThe 9-valent HPV vaccine will prevent nearly all cervical precancers and invasive cancers among major racial and ethnic groups in the United States. Adding HPV35 to vaccines could prevent a small percentage of CIN3s and SCCs, with greater potential impact for CIN3s among Black women. HPV screening tests target high-risk HPV types, including HPV35. Future genotyping triage strategies could consider the importance of HPV35- and other HPV16-related types.