Nicolas Wentzensen

Patterns of Associations with Epidemiologic Factors by High-Grade Serous Ovarian Cancer Gene Expression Subtypes

Abstract Background: Ovarian high-grade serous carcinomas (HGSC) comprise four distinct molecular subtypes based on mRNA expression patterns, with differential survival. Understanding risk factor associations is important to elucidate the etiology of HGSC. We investigated associations between different epidemiologic risk factors and HGSC molecular subtypes. Methods: We pooled data from 11 case–control studies with epidemiologic and tumor gene expression data from custom NanoString CodeSets developed through a collaboration within the Ovarian Tumor Tissue Analysis consortium. The PrOTYPE-validated NanoString-based 55-gene classifier was used to assign HGSC gene expression subtypes. We examined associations between epidemiologic factors and HGSC subtypes in 2,070 cases and 16,633 controls using multivariable-adjusted polytomous regression models. Results: Among the 2,070 HGSC cases, 556 (27%) were classified as C1.MES, 340 (16%) as C5.PRO, 538 (26%) as C2.IMM, and 636 (31%) as C4.DIF. The key factors, including oral contraceptive use, parity, breastfeeding, and family history of ovarian cancer, were similarly associated with all subtypes. Heterogeneity was observed for several factors. Former smoking [OR = 1.25; 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.03, 1.51] and genital powder use (OR = 1.42; 95% CI = 1.08, 1.86) were uniquely associated with C2.IMM. History of endometriosis was associated with C5.PRO (OR = 1.46; 95% CI = 0.98, 2.16) and C4.DIF (OR = 1.27; 95% CI = 0.94, 1.71) only. Family history of breast cancer (OR = 1.44; 95% CI = 1.16, 1.78) and current smoking (OR = 1.40; 95% CI = 1.11, 1.76) were associated with C4.DIF only. Conclusions: This study observed heterogeneous associations of epidemiologic and modifiable factors with HGSC molecular subtypes. Impact: The different patterns of associations may provide key information about the etiology of the four subtypes.

Ovarian cancer risk prediction: a clinical epidemiology perspective

Abstract Ovarian cancer is a rare and highly heterogeneous disease usually detected at late stages when outcomes are poor. Population-based screening approaches have not been successful at reducing ovarian cancer mortality, but preventive bilateral salpingo-oophorectomy is highly effective at preventing ovarian cancer in high-risk populations. Ovarian cancer risk prediction models may allow identification of populations at increased risk of ovarian cancer for preventive interventions or targeted early detection. We propose a life-course approach to ovarian cancer risk prediction based on the time at which a risk model should be applied and the risk factors that are available. The discriminative ability of ovarian cancer risk prediction models published so far is limited, with areas under the curve ranging from 0.58 to 0.65 for different combinations of risk factors and genetic susceptibility markers. Currently proposed absolute risk thresholds for preventive surgery are around 4% lifetime risk. The absolute risk predicted by ovarian cancer risk models ranges from 0.6% to 2.5% lifetime risk in the general population, highlighting the need to improve ovarian cancer risk prediction models and evaluating new preventive approaches that can be offered to individuals at lower risk.

Intimate Care Products and Incidence of Hormone-Related Cancers: A Quantitative Bias Analysis

PURPOSE Intimate care products may contain substances associated with increased risk of hormone-related cancers. The relationship between genital talc use and ovarian cancer, in particular, has been well studied, but concerns about recall bias and exposure misclassification have precluded conclusions. We examined the association between intimate care products and female hormone–related cancers, accounting for potential biases, using data from a US-based cohort study. METHODS The Sister Study enrolled 50,884 women who had a sister with breast cancer. Data on genital talc use and douching were collected at enrollment (2003-2009) and follow-up (2017-2019). We used Cox proportional hazards models to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) for associations between intimate care product use and breast, ovarian, and uterine cancers. To account for potential exposure misclassification and recall bias, we conducted quantitative bias analyses under various exposure reassignment assumptions. RESULTS Across considered scenarios, 41%-64% of participants douched and 35%-56% used genital talc. In models adjusted for exposure misclassification, genital talc use was positively associated with ovarian cancer (HR range, 1.17-3.34) Frequent douching and douching during young adulthood were positively associated with ovarian cancer, but neither douching nor talc was associated with breast or uterine cancer. Differential reporting of talc use by cases and noncases likely produces positive biases, but correcting for error still resulted in HRs above 1.0. For example, HR, 1.40 (95% CI, 1.04 to 1.89) when 25% of exposed cases and 10% of unexposed noncases had talc status reassigned. CONCLUSION Although results show how differential recall would upwardly bias estimates, corrected results support a positive association between use of intimate care products, including genital talc, and ovarian cancer.

State-Specific Incidence of Endometrial Cancer in the United States by Histologic Subtype Corrected for Hysterectomy Prevalence from 2010 to 2019

Abstract Background: Accurate reporting of state-specific endometrial cancer incidence is important for informing cancer control efforts and may lead to new hypotheses about environmental and/or geographic risk factors. Previous studies have demonstrated the importance of accounting for hysterectomy prevalence when estimating state-level endometrial cancer incidence rates as hysterectomy prevalence varies by geographic region. Methods: We used the Cancer in North America Public Use Dataset produced by the North American Association of Central Cancer Registries to identify incident endometrial cancer cases among women ≥20 years of age diagnosed from 2010 to 2019. We estimated state-specific hysterectomy-corrected, age-adjusted incidence rates overall and by histology. State-specific hysterectomy prevalence data were obtained from the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System. Results: Hysterectomy prevalence was highest in Southern and Midwestern states and lowest in the Northeast. Although uncorrected endometrial cancer incidence rates were highest in the Northeast, hysterectomy-corrected rates were highest in states within the Midwest and Appalachia. Geographic patterns of the hysterectomy-corrected incidence of endometrioid cancer resembled those of endometrial cancer overall. In contrast, corrected rates of non-endometrioid cancer were highest in the South and in certain states within the Northeast and Midwest. There was no overlap in the top 10 states with the highest rates of endometrioid and non-endometrioid cancers, respectively. Conclusions: State-specific, hysterectomy-corrected incidence rates of endometrial cancer vary by histology, suggesting potential differences in behavioral, sociodemographic, and/or environmental exposures at the state level. Impact: This study presents an accurate assessment of US endometrial cancer rates and emphasizes the importance of hysterectomy correction for geographic comparisons.

Understanding risk factors for endometrial cancer in young women

Abstract Background The American Cancer Society recommends physicians inform average-risk women about endometrial cancer risk on reaching menopause, but new diagnoses are rising fastest in women aged younger than 50 years. Educating these younger women about endometrial cancer risks requires knowledge of risk factors. However, endometrial cancer in young women is rare and challenging to study in single study populations. Methods We included 13 846 incident endometrial cancer patients (1639 aged younger than 50 years) and 30 569 matched control individuals from the Epidemiology of Endometrial Cancer Consortium. We used generalized linear models to estimate odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for 6 risk factors and endometrial cancer risk. We created a risk score to evaluate the combined associations and population attributable fractions for these factors. Results In younger and older women, we observed positive associations with body mass index and diabetes and inverse associations with age at menarche, oral contraceptive use, and parity. Current smoking was associated with reduced risk only in women aged 50 years and older (Phet < .01). Body mass index was the strongest risk factor (OR≥35 vs<25 kg/m2 = 5.57, 95% CI = 4.33 to 7.16, for ages younger than 50 years; OR≥35 vs<25 kg/m2 = 4.68, 95% CI = 4.30 to 5.09, for ages 50 years and older; Phet = .14). Possessing at least 4 risk factors was associated with approximately ninefold increased risk in women aged younger than 50 years and approximately fourfold increased risk in women aged 50 years and older (Phet < .01). Together, 59.1% of endometrial cancer in women aged younger than 50 years and 55.6% in women aged 50 years and older were attributable to these factors. Conclusions Our data confirm younger and older women share common endometrial cancer risk factors. Early educational efforts centered on these factors may help mitigate the rising endometrial cancer burden in young women.

Risk prediction models for endometrial cancer: development and validation in an international consortium

Abstract Background Endometrial cancer risk stratification may help target interventions, screening, or prophylactic hysterectomy to mitigate the rising burden of this cancer. However, existing prediction models have been developed in select cohorts and have not considered genetic factors. Methods We developed endometrial cancer risk prediction models using data on postmenopausal White women aged 45-85 years from 19 case-control studies in the Epidemiology of Endometrial Cancer Consortium (E2C2). Relative risk estimates for predictors were combined with age-specific endometrial cancer incidence rates and estimates for the underlying risk factor distribution. We externally validated the models in 3 cohorts: Nurses’ Health Study (NHS), NHS II, and the Prostate, Lung, Colorectal and Ovarian (PLCO) Cancer Screening Trial. Results Area under the receiver operating characteristic curves for the epidemiologic model ranged from 0.64 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.62 to 0.67) to 0.69 (95% CI = 0.66 to 0.72). Improvements in discrimination from the addition of genetic factors were modest (no change in area under the receiver operating characteristic curves in NHS; PLCO = 0.64 to 0.66). The epidemiologic model was well calibrated in NHS II (overall expected-to-observed ratio [E/O] = 1.09, 95% CI = 0.98 to 1.22) and PLCO (overall E/O = 1.04, 95% CI = 0.95 to 1.13) but poorly calibrated in NHS (overall E/O = 0.55, 95% CI = 0.51 to 0.59). Conclusions Using data from the largest, most heterogeneous study population to date (to our knowledge), prediction models based on epidemiologic factors alone successfully identified women at high risk of endometrial cancer. Genetic factors offered limited improvements in discrimination. Further work is needed to refine this tool for clinical or public health practice and expand these models to multiethnic populations.

Coffee consumption and risk of endometrial cancer: a pooled analysis of individual participant data in the Epidemiology of Endometrial Cancer Consortium (E2C2)

Epidemiologic studies suggest that coffee consumption may be inversely associated with risk of endometrial cancer (EC), the most common gynecological malignancy in developed countries. Furthermore, coffee consumption may lower circulating concentrations of estrogen and insulin, hormones implicated in endometrial carcinogenesis. Antioxidants and other chemopreventive compounds in coffee may have anticarcinogenic effects. Based on available meta-analyses, the World Cancer Research Fund (WCRF) concluded that consumption of coffee probably protects against EC. Our main aim was to examine the association between coffee consumption and EC risk by combining individual-level data in a pooled analysis. We also sought to evaluate potential effect modification by other risk factors for EC. We combined individual-level data from 19 epidemiologic studies (6 cohort, 13 case-control) of 12,159 EC cases and 27,479 controls from the Epidemiology of Endometrial Cancer Consortium (E2C2). Logistic regression was used to calculate ORs and their corresponding 95% CIs. All models were adjusted for potential confounders including age, race, BMI, smoking status, diabetes status, study design, and study site. Coffee drinkers had a lower risk of EC than non-coffee drinkers (multiadjusted OR: 0.87; 95% CI: 0.79, 0.95). There was a dose-response relation between higher coffee consumption and lower risk of EC: compared with non-coffee drinkers, the adjusted pooled ORs for those who drank 1, 2-3, and >4 cups/d were 0.90 (95% CI: 0.82, 1.00), 0.86 (95% CI: 0.78, 0.95), and 0.76 (95% CI: 0.66, 0.87), respectively (P-trend 25 kg/m The results of the largest analysis to date pooling individual-level data further support the potentially beneficial health effects of coffee consumption in relation to EC, especially among females with higher BMI.

Mendelian randomization analyses suggest a role for cholesterol in the development of endometrial cancer

AbstractBlood lipids have been associated with the development of a range of cancers, including breast, lung and colorectal cancer. For endometrial cancer, observational studies have reported inconsistent associations between blood lipids and cancer risk. To reduce biases from unmeasured confounding, we performed a bidirectional, two‐sample Mendelian randomization analysis to investigate the relationship between levels of three blood lipids (low‐density lipoprotein [LDL] and high‐density lipoprotein [HDL] cholesterol, and triglycerides) and endometrial cancer risk. Genetic variants associated with each of these blood lipid levels (P < 5 × 10−8) were identified as instrumental variables, and assessed using genome‐wide association study data from the Endometrial Cancer Association Consortium (12 906 cases and 108 979 controls) and the Global Lipids Genetic Consortium (n = 188 578). Mendelian randomization analyses found genetically raised LDL cholesterol levels to be associated with lower risks of endometrial cancer of all histologies combined, and of endometrioid and non‐endometrioid subtypes. Conversely, higher genetically predicted HDL cholesterol levels were associated with increased risk of non‐endometrioid endometrial cancer. After accounting for the potential confounding role of obesity (as measured by genetic variants associated with body mass index), the association between genetically predicted increased LDL cholesterol levels and lower endometrial cancer risk remained significant, especially for non‐endometrioid endometrial cancer. There was no evidence to support a role for triglycerides in endometrial cancer development. Our study supports a role for LDL and HDL cholesterol in the development of non‐endometrioid endometrial cancer. Further studies are required to understand the mechanisms underlying these findings.

A Prospective Study Consortium for the Discovery and Validation of Early Detection Markers for Ovarian Cancer – Baseline Findings for CA125

Abstract Purpose: Epithelial ovarian cancer (EOC) is a lethal malignancy. Cancer antigen 125 (CA125), the “best” available marker for detecting EOC, has insufficient sensitivity and specificity for earlier-stage disease and is not a meaningful screening tool, motivating the search for further biomarkers. Cancer biomarker discovery is enhanced by “omics” technologies. Discovery studies for EOC biomarkers should be conducted in prediagnosis blood samples from prospective cohorts to maximize the likelihood of identifying markers that can detect disease before usual diagnosis and in earlier disease stage while reducing methodologic biases. Experimental Design: Individual cohorts with prediagnosis blood samples have insufficient sample size for such studies. Thus, we established “Prospective Early Detection Consortium for Ovarian Cancer” (“PREDICT”)—a collaboration of nine prospective studies—to assemble a sufficient number of EOC cases with blood samples collected ≤18 months before diagnosis plus controls. The 457 cases and 1,687 controls have circulating CA125 measured using a clinical assay. Results: The discrimination capacity for single CA125 measurements in samples collected <6 months prior to diagnosis was high (AUC; PREDICT overall = 0.92; range across cohorts of nonpregnant individuals = 0.89–0.98) and declined with extended time between blood collection and diagnosis. Between-cohort variability in CA125 levels and predictive performance was observed. Conclusions: Ongoing investigations in PREDICT are evaluating the early detection potential of tumor-associated autoantibodies and miRNAs using CA125 as a benchmark. PREDICT is a well-characterized resource for identifying and validating detection markers for EOC that may then be used in multimodal screening as a complement to CA125 and combined with imaging.

Accuracy of HPV Self-Collection Compared with Clinician-Collected HPV Testing and Cytology: A Meta-analysis

Abstract Meta-analyses show comparable clinical accuracy of PCR-based human papillomavirus (HPV) assays on self- compared with clinician-collected specimens. We extended these meta-analyses by comparing HPV testing on both samples with cytology from clinician-collected specimens. Studies published in PubMed, Embase, and Cochrane Library up to September 2024 were reviewed for inclusion. Studies had to report paired HPV self-collection, clinician-collected HPV testing, and cytology. Performance measures included sensitivity and specificity of atypical squamous cells of undetermined significance or worse and high-risk HPV positivity in self- and clinician-collected samples for cervical intraepithelial neoplasia 2 or worse. Accuracy data were pooled using the bivariate normal model for logit transforms of sensitivity and specificity. Sixteen full-text articles met inclusion criteria. Studies were heterogeneous and included referral populations, which may overestimate cytology sensitivity. Cytology was less sensitive in detecting cervical intraepithelial neoplasia 2 or worse (pooled sensitivity 87%; 95% confidence interval, 76–93) compared with HPV testing on self- (90%) and clinician-collected samples (93%) when restricting to PCR-based HPV assays. Overall, HPV self-collection sensitivity surpassed clinician-collected cytology testing, demonstrating that 3-year screening intervals, which are recommended for negative cytology results, are safe to use for negative HPV results from self-collected specimens. Longitudinal data of HPV testing on self- versus clinician-collected samples are lacking.

Whole‐genome sequencing of 1,083 HPV45 cases and controls identifies genetic variants associated with glandular cervical lesions

AbstractHuman papillomavirus type 45 (HPV45) causes ~6% of all cervical cancers and an even greater proportion of adenocarcinomas, the latter of which are challenging to detect using current cervical cancer screening. Little is known about how HPV45 genetic variation is related to the risk of cervical precancer/cancer. To investigate this, we whole‐genome sequenced a total of 1,083 HPV45‐positive samples from two large studies. We evaluated associations of HPV45 genetic variation (sublineages, subclades, and SNPs) with histology‐specific precancer/cancer risk using logistic regression and evaluated risk modification by self‐reported race/ethnicity. Compared to the common A1 sublineage, A2 and B1 were associated with increased precancer/cancer (A2, OR = 3.9, 95% CI = 1.9–8.5; B1, OR = 2.7, 95% CI = 1.3–5.8; B2, OR = 3.3, 95% CI = 1.6–7.3), and most strongly with the glandular precancers/cancers (AIS/ADC; A2, OR = 6.9, 95% CI = 1.0–184; B1, OR = 6.2, 95% CI = 1.1–159). The A2 sublineage was most prevalent in women in East Asia and women who self‐reported as Asian/Pacific Islander (PI) in the U.S.; East Asian and Asian/PI women had the greatest precancer/cancer risk associated with A2 infections (OR = 5.8, 95% CI = 1.3–37.4) compared to all other sublineages among these women. We further evaluated precancer/cancer risk associations for 262 individual HPV45 SNPs and identified four SNPs significantly associated with only glandular precancers/cancers after correction for multiple tests (ORs ranged 7.8–20.7). One of these SNPs was a nonsynonymous variant in both overlapping viral E2/E4 ORFs. In summary, we show that HPV45 genetic variation influences the risk of precancer/cancer, specifically glandular precancer/cancer. Further studies of these genetic variants may improve our understanding of glandular lesions.

Pre-diagnosis tea and coffee consumption and survival after a diagnosis of ovarian cancer: results from the Ovarian Cancer Association Consortium

Abstract Background Tea and coffee are the most frequently consumed beverages in the world. Green tea in particular contains compounds with potential anti-cancer effects, but its association with survival after ovarian cancer is uncertain. Methods We investigated the associations between tea and coffee consumption before diagnosis and survival using data from 10 studies in the Ovarian Cancer Association Consortium. Data on tea (green, black, herbal), coffee and caffeine intake were available for up to 5724 women. We used Cox proportional hazards regression to estimate adjusted hazard ratios (aHR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI). Results Compared with women who did not drink any green tea, consumption of one or more cups/day was associated with better overall survival (aHR = 0.84, 95% CI 0.71–1.00, p-trend = 0.04). A similar association was seen for ovarian cancer-specific survival in five studies with this information (aHR = 0.81, 0.66–0.99, p-trend = 0.045). There was no consistent variation between subgroups defined by clinical or lifestyle characteristics and adjustment for other aspects of lifestyle did not appreciably alter the estimates. We found no evidence of an association between coffee, black or herbal tea, or caffeine intake and survival. Conclusion The observed association with green tea consumption before diagnosis raises the possibility that consumption after diagnosis might improve patient outcomes.

Interobserver reproducibility of cervical histology interpretation with and without p16 immunohistochemistry

Abstract Objectives Histopathological diagnosis of colposcopically identified cervical lesions is a critical step for the recognition of cervical cancer precursors requiring treatment. Although there have been efforts to standardize the histologic diagnosis of cervical biopsy specimens, in terms of terminology and use of biomarkers, there is no uniform approach in the pathology community. Adjunctive p16 immunohistochemistry (IHC) can highlight precancer diagnoses, with use recommendations outlined by the Lower Anogenital Squamous Terminology project. Methods We assessed the diagnostic reproducibility of cervical histopathological biopsy specimens with and without p16 staining among 2 expert pathologists. Results Interpretation of p16 IHC as positive vs negative was highly reproducible (92.5% agreement, κ = 0.85); greater variation was seen in the choice of which biopsy specimens required adjunctive p16 staining (78.0% agreement, κ = 0.43). Adjunctive p16 IHC did not significantly increase diagnostic agreement under multitiered grading systems (benign vs cervical intraepithelial neoplasia [CIN] 1/low-grade squamous intraepithelial lesion vs atypical squamous metaplasia vs CIN2/high-grade squamous intraepithelial lesion [HSIL] vs CIN3/HSIL-CIN3 vs cancer) (65.5% agreement, κ = 0.56 without p16; 70.0% agreement, κ = 0.58 with p16). However, when dichotomizing diagnoses based on clinical management (less than HSIL vs HSIL+), diagnostic agreement increased with p16 IHC (90.5% agreement, κ = 0.79 without p16; 92.0% agreement, κ = 0.84 with p16). For biopsy specimens taken from women positive for human papillomavirus (HPV) type 16, agreement was similar with or without adjunctive p16 (κ = 0.80 without p16; κ = 0.78-0.80 with p16). In contrast, p16 IHC substantially improved diagnostic agreement for cervical biopsy specimens taken from women positive for other high-risk HPV strains, producing improvements in κ from 0.03 to 0.24. Conclusions Adjunctive p16 immunostaining provides useful information in the evaluation of cervical biopsies for precancer. In our study, we have demonstrated that it is highly reproducible between 2 pathologists, although the decision of which biopsies warrant its use is less so. Furthermore, although p16 IHC showed a limited increase in diagnostic reproducibility for all biopsies included in our study, it did demonstrate a more sizable gain in biopsies negative for HPV 16 but positive for other high-risk genotypes. Further studies are needed to clarify the role of p16 IHC and how it can be optimized for the detection of cervical precancer, particularly in HPV-vaccinated populations where types other than HPV 16 are relatively more important.

Lifetime ovulatory years and risk of epithelial ovarian cancer: a multinational pooled analysis

Abstract Background The role of ovulation in epithelial ovarian cancer (EOC) is supported by the consistent protective effects of parity and oral contraceptive use. Whether these factors protect through anovulation alone remains unclear. We explored the association between lifetime ovulatory years (LOY) and EOC. Methods LOY was calculated using 12 algorithms. Odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) estimated the association between LOY or LOY components and EOC among 26 204 control participants and 21 267 case patients from 25 studies. To assess whether LOY components act through ovulation suppression alone, we compared beta coefficients obtained from regression models with expected estimates assuming 1 year of ovulation suppression has the same effect regardless of source. Results LOY was associated with increased EOC risk (OR per year increase = 1.014, 95% CI = 1.009 to 1.020 to OR per year increase = 1.044, 95% CI = 1.041 to 1.048). Individual LOY components, except age at menarche, also associated with EOC. The estimated model coefficient for oral contraceptive use and pregnancies were 4.45 times and 12- to 15-fold greater than expected, respectively. LOY was associated with high-grade serous, low-grade serous, endometrioid, and clear cell histotypes (ORs per year increase = 1.054, 1.040, 1.065, and 1.098, respectively) but not mucinous tumors. Estimated coefficients of LOY components were close to expected estimates for high-grade serous but larger than expected for low-grade serous, endometrioid, and clear cell histotypes. Conclusions LOY is positively associated with nonmucinous EOC. Differences between estimated and expected model coefficients for LOY components suggest factors beyond ovulation underlie the associations between LOY components and EOC in general and for non-HGSOC.

Joint IARC/NCI International Cancer Seminar Series Report: expert consensus on future directions for ovarian carcinoma research

Abstract Recently, ovarian cancer research has evolved considerably because of the emerging recognition that rather than a single disease, ovarian carcinomas comprise several different histotypes that vary by etiologic origin, risk factors, molecular profiles, therapeutic approaches and clinical outcome. Despite significant progress in our understanding of the etiologic heterogeneity of ovarian cancer, as well as important clinical advances, it remains the eighth most frequently diagnosed cancer in women worldwide and the most fatal gynecologic cancer. The International Agency for Research on Cancer and the United States National Cancer Institute jointly convened an expert panel on ovarian carcinoma to develop consensus research priorities based on evolving scientific discoveries. Expertise ranged from etiology, prevention, early detection, pathology, model systems, molecular characterization and treatment/clinical management. This report summarizes the current state of knowledge and highlights expert consensus on future directions to continue advancing etiologic, epidemiologic and prognostic research on ovarian carcinoma.

Copy Number Variants Are Ovarian Cancer Risk Alleles at Known and Novel Risk Loci

AbstractBackgroundKnown risk alleles for epithelial ovarian cancer (EOC) account for approximately 40% of the heritability for EOC. Copy number variants (CNVs) have not been investigated as EOC risk alleles in a large population cohort.MethodsSingle nucleotide polymorphism array data from 13 071 EOC cases and 17 306 controls of White European ancestry were used to identify CNVs associated with EOC risk using a rare admixture maximum likelihood test for gene burden and a by-probe ratio test. We performed enrichment analysis of CNVs at known EOC risk loci and functional biofeatures in ovarian cancer–related cell types.ResultsWe identified statistically significant risk associations with CNVs at known EOC risk genes; BRCA1 (PEOC = 1.60E-21; OREOC = 8.24), RAD51C (Phigh-grade serous ovarian cancer [HGSOC] = 5.5E-4; odds ratio [OR]HGSOC = 5.74 del), and BRCA2 (PHGSOC = 7.0E-4; ORHGSOC = 3.31 deletion). Four suggestive associations (P < .001) were identified for rare CNVs. Risk-associated CNVs were enriched (P < .05) at known EOC risk loci identified by genome-wide association study. Noncoding CNVs were enriched in active promoters and insulators in EOC-related cell types.ConclusionsCNVs in BRCA1 have been previously reported in smaller studies, but their observed frequency in this large population-based cohort, along with the CNVs observed at BRCA2 and RAD51C gene loci in EOC cases, suggests that these CNVs are potentially pathogenic and may contribute to the spectrum of disease-causing mutations in these genes. CNVs are likely to occur in a wider set of susceptibility regions, with potential implications for clinical genetic testing and disease prevention.

Modification of the Association Between Frequent Aspirin Use and Ovarian Cancer Risk: A Meta-Analysis Using Individual-Level Data From Two Ovarian Cancer Consortia

PURPOSE Frequent aspirin use has been associated with reduced ovarian cancer risk, but no study has comprehensively assessed for effect modification. We leveraged harmonized, individual-level data from 17 studies to examine the association between frequent aspirin use and ovarian cancer risk, overall and across subgroups of women with other ovarian cancer risk factors. METHODS Nine cohort studies from the Ovarian Cancer Cohort Consortium (n = 2,600 cases) and eight case-control studies from the Ovarian Cancer Association Consortium (n = 5,726 cases) were included. We used Cox regression and logistic regression to assess study-specific associations between frequent aspirin use (≥ 6 days/week) and ovarian cancer risk and combined study-specific estimates using random-effects meta-analysis. We conducted analyses within subgroups defined by individual ovarian cancer risk factors (endometriosis, obesity, family history of breast/ovarian cancer, nulliparity, oral contraceptive use, and tubal ligation) and by number of risk factors (0, 1, and ≥ 2). RESULTS Overall, frequent aspirin use was associated with a 13% reduction in ovarian cancer risk (95% CI, 6 to 20), with no significant heterogeneity by study design ( P = .48) or histotype ( P = .60). Although no association was observed among women with endometriosis, consistent risk reductions were observed among all other subgroups defined by ovarian cancer risk factors (relative risks ranging from 0.79 to 0.93, all P-heterogeneity > .05), including women with ≥ 2 risk factors (relative risk, 0.81; 95% CI, 0.73 to 0.90). CONCLUSION This study, the largest to-date on aspirin use and ovarian cancer, provides evidence that frequent aspirin use is associated with lower ovarian cancer risk regardless of the presence of most other ovarian cancer risk factors. Risk reductions were also observed among women with multiple risk factors, providing proof of principle that chemoprevention programs with frequent aspirin use could target higher-risk subgroups.

Cohort Profile: The Ovarian Cancer Cohort Consortium (OC3)

A demonstration of automated visual evaluation of cervical images taken with a smartphone camera

AbstractWe examined whether automated visual evaluation (AVE), a deep learning computer application for cervical cancer screening, can be used on cervix images taken by a contemporary smartphone camera. A large number of cervix images acquired by the commercial MobileODT EVA system were filtered for acceptable visual quality and then 7587 filtered images from 3221 women were annotated by a group of gynecologic oncologists (so the gold standard is an expert impression, not histopathology). We tested and analyzed on multiple random splits of the images using two deep learning, object detection networks. For all the receiver operating characteristics curves, the area under the curve values for the discrimination of the most likely precancer cases from least likely cases (most likely controls) were above 0.90. These results showed that AVE can classify cervix images with confidence scores that are strongly associated with expert evaluations of severity for the same images. The results on a small subset of images that have histopathologic diagnoses further supported the capability of AVE for predicting cervical precancer. We examined the associations of AVE severity score with gynecologic oncologist impression at all regions where we had a sufficient number of cases and controls, and the influence of a woman's age. The method was found generally resilient to regional variation in the appearance of the cervix. This work suggests that using AVE on smartphones could be a useful adjunct to health‐worker visual assessment with acetic acid, a cervical cancer screening method commonly used in low‐ and middle‐resource settings.

Association of HPV35 with cervical carcinogenesis among women of African ancestry: Evidence of viral‐host interaction with implications for disease intervention

AbstractHPV35 has been found in only ∼2% of invasive cervical cancers (ICC) worldwide but up to 10% in Sub‐Saharan Africa, warranting further investigation and consideration of impact on preventive strategies. We studied HPV35 and ethnicity, in relation to the known steps in cervical carcinogenesis, using multiple large epidemiologic studies in the U.S. and internationally. Combining five U.S. studies, we measured HPV35 positivity and, in Northern California, observed HPV35 type‐specific population prevalence and estimated 5‐year risk of developing precancer when HPV35‐positive. HPV35 genetic variation was examined for differences in carcinogenicity in 1053 HPV35+ cervical specimens from a U.S. cohort and an international collection. African‐American women had more HPV35 (12.1% vs 5.1%, P < .001) and more HPV35‐associated precancers (7.4% vs 2.1%, P < .001) compared to other ethnicities. Precancer risks after HPV35 infection did not vary by ethnicity (global P = .52). The HPV35 A2 sublineage showed an increased association with precancer/cancer in African‐Americans (OR = 5.6 vs A1, 95% CI = 1.3‐24.8) and A2 was more prevalent among ICC in Africa than other world regions (41.9% vs 10.4%, P < .01). Our analyses support a strong link between HPV35 and cervical carcinogenesis in women of African ancestry. Current HPV vaccines cover the majority of cervical precancer/cancer across all ethnic groups; additional analyses are required to determine whether the addition of HPV35 to the already highly effective nine‐valent HPV vaccine would provide better protection for women in Africa or of African ancestry.

A study of the risks of CIN3+ detection after multiple rounds of HPV testing: Results of the 15‐year cervical cancer screening experience at Kaiser Permanente Northern California

Many countries are transitioning to HPV testing for cervical cancer screening, despite a lack of long‐term experience. To anticipate multi‐round screening performance, we analyzed 15‐year HPV testing results at Kaiser Permanente Northern California (KPNC). We evaluated HPV test result patterns among women aged 30–64 undergoing triennial HPV/cytology cotesting at KPNC during 2003–2018. We calculated incidence rates and proportion of CIN3+ diagnoses associated with the most frequent HPV testing patterns overall and stratified by age. From 2003 to 2018, a total of 1,361,581 women had a valid HPV test result, and 7,087 were diagnosed with CIN3+. Incidence rates of CIN3+ after HPV positivity were lowest when HPV detection was new and highest in women with prevalent infections (770 vs. 13,910/100,000 person‐years). Repeat test negativity reduced subsequent incidence rates of CIN3+ to extremely low levels (18/100,000 person‐years following four consecutive negative results). For mixed patterns of positivity/negativity, the recency and frequency of positive tests were associated with increased rates of CIN3+ diagnosis. Most CIN3+ cases (76%) were diagnosed in women who were positive at baseline (the first known positive HPV result); 16% were attributed to apparent newly detected infections and 3% to possible reappearing infections. These results corroborate previous findings that current HPV positivity, particularly when prevalent rather than new, is associated with the highest rates of CIN3+. In a screening program implementing HPV testing, most CIN3+ is detected at the first HPV positive test.

Identification of HPV genotypes causing cervical precancer using tissue‐based genotyping

Identification of high‐risk human papillomavirus genotypes causing cervical precancer is crucial for informing HPV vaccine development and efficacy studies, and for determining which types to include in next‐generation genotyping assays. Co‐occurrence of hrHPV infections is common and complicates carcinogenicity assessment; accurate attribution requires tissue‐based genotyping of precancers. We included all women with cervical intraepithelial neoplasia Grade 2 or worse (CIN2+) from the Biopsy Study, an observational study of 690 women enrolled between 2009 and 2012 at the University of Oklahoma. Tissue‐based genotyping, including whole tissue sections (WTS) and laser‐capture microdissection (LCM), was performed on all precancers with multiple hrHPV infections detected in cytology, totaling over 1,800 HPV genotyping assays. Genotype attribution was compared to hierarchical and proportional hrHPV‐type attribution models. Of 276 women with CIN2+, 122 (44.2%) had multiple hrHPV genotypes in cytology. Of 114 women with genotyping data, 94 had one or more hrHPV detected in tissue. Seventy‐one women (75.5%) had a single causal hrHPV genotype, while 23 women had multiple hrHPV genotypes causing CIN2+. Ten women had multiple causal infections in a single biopsy, contrary to the previous notion that each lesion is caused by a single type only. While HPV16 was the predominant causal hrHPV genotype using all approaches, the hierarchical model overattributed HPV16, whereas other causal hrHPV genotypes, particularly HPV18 and HPV35, were underattributed. Understanding true causal genotypes is important for the evaluation of vaccine efficacy, to estimate the extent of unmasking, and for type‐specific risk assessment in screening and management.

The IARC Perspective on Cervical Cancer Screening

Cervical Screening Performance

The Orderly Incorporation of Continuing Technologic Advances Into Cervical Cancer Screening

Racial and Ethnic Disparities in Cervical Cancer Incidence, Survival, and Mortality by Histologic Subtype

PURPOSE We conducted an integrated population-based analysis of histologic subtype–specific cervical cancer incidence, survival, and incidence-based mortality by race and ethnicity, with correction for hysterectomy prevalence. METHODS Using the SEER 21 and 18 registries, we selected primary cases of malignant cervical cancer diagnosed among women ≥ 15 years. We evaluated age-adjusted incidence rates among cases diagnosed between 2000 and 2018 (SEER21) and incidence-based mortality rates among deaths from 2005 to 2018 (SEER18), per 100,000 person-years. Rates were stratified by histologic subtype and race/ethnicity (incidence and mortality), and stage, age at diagnosis, and county-level measures of social determinants of health (incidence only). Incidence and mortality rates were corrected for hysterectomy using data from the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System. We estimated 5-year relative survival by histologic subtype and stratified by stage at diagnosis. RESULTS Incidence rates of cervical squamous cell carcinoma were highest in Black and Hispanic women, while incidence rates of cervical adenocarcinoma (ADC) were highest among Hispanic and White women, particularly for localized ADC. County-level income and education variables were inversely associated with squamous cell carcinoma incidence rates in all racial and ethnic groups but had less influence on ADC incidence rates. Black women had the highest overall mortality rates and lowest 5-year relative survival, irrespective of subtype and stage. Disparities in survival were particularly pronounced for Black women with regional and distant ADC, compared with other racial/ethnic groups. CONCLUSION Although Black women are less likely to be diagnosed with ADC compared with all other racial/ethnic groups, they experience the highest mortality rates for this subtype, likely attributed to the poor survival observed for Black women with regional and distant ADC.

Clarifying the Equivocal Diagnosis of Cervical Intraepithelial Neoplasia 2: Still a Work in Progress

Redesign of a rapid, low‐cost HPV typing assay to support risk‐based cervical screening and management

AbstractAccelerated cervical cancer control will require widespread human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination and screening. For screening, sensitive HPV testing with an option of self‐collection is increasingly desirable. HPV typing predicts risk of precancer/cancer, which could be useful in management, but most current typing assays are expensive and/or complicated. An existing 15‐type isothermal amplification assay (AmpFire, Atila Biosystems, USA) was redesigned as a 13‐type assay (ScreenFire) for public health use. The redesigned assay groups HPV types into four channels with differential cervical cancer risk: (a) HPV16, (b) HPV18/45, (c) HPV31/33/35/52/58 and (d) HPV39/51/56/59/68. Since the assay will be most useful in resource‐limited settings, we chose a stratified random sample of 453 provider‐collected samples from a population‐based screening study in rural Nigeria that had been initially tested with MY09‐MY11‐based PCR with oligonucleotide hybridization genotyping. Frozen residual specimens were masked and retested at Atila Biosystems. Agreement on positivity between ScreenFire and prior PCR testing was very high for each of the channels. When we simulated intended use, that is, a hierarchical result in order of clinical importance of the type groups (HPV16 > 18/45 > 31/33/35/52/58 > 39/51/56/59/68), the weighted kappa for ScreenFire vs PCR was 0.90 (95% CI: 0.86‐0.93). The ScreenFire assay is mobile, relatively simple, rapid (results within 20‐60 minutes) and agrees well with reference testing particularly for the HPV types of greatest carcinogenic risk. If confirmed, ScreenFire or similar isothermal amplification assays could be useful as part of risk‐based screening and management.

Different human papillomavirus types share early natural history transitions in immunocompetent women

AbstractNecessary stages of cervical carcinogenesis include acquisition of a carcinogenic human papillomavirus (HPV) type, persistence associated with the development of precancerous lesions, and invasion. Using prospective data from immunocompetent women in the Guanacaste HPV Natural History Study (NHS), the ASCUS‐LSIL Triage Study (ALTS) and the Costa Rica HPV Vaccine Trial (CVT), we compared the early natural history of HPV types to inform transition probabilities for health decision models. We excluded women with evidence of high‐grade cervical abnormalities at any point during follow‐up and restricted the analysis to incident infections in all women and prevalent infections in young women (aged <30 years). We used survival approaches accounting for interval‐censoring to estimate the time to clearance distribution for 20 529 HPV infections (64% were incident and 51% were carcinogenic). Time to clearance was similar across HPV types and risk classes (HPV16, HPV18/45, HPV31/33/35/52/58, HPV 39/51/56/59 and noncarcinogenic HPV types); and by age group (18‐29, 30‐44 and 45‐54 years), among carcinogenic and noncarcinogenic infections. Similar time to clearance across HPV types suggests that relative prevalence can predict relative incidence. We confirmed that there was a uniform linear association between incident and prevalent infections for all HPV types within each study cohort. In the absence of progression to precancer, we observed similar time to clearance for incident infections across HPV types and risk classes. A singular clearance function for incident HPV infections has important implications for the refinement of microsimulation models used to evaluate the cost‐effectiveness of novel prevention technologies.

Cervical Precancers and Cancers Attributed to HPV Types by Race and Ethnicity: Implications for Vaccination, Screening, and Management

AbstractBackgroundRacial and ethnic variations in attribution of cervical precancer and cancer to human papillomavirus (HPV) types may result in different HPV vaccine protection, screening test coverage, and clinical management.MethodsPooling data from 7 US studies, we calculated the proportional attribution of precancers and cancers to HPV types using HPV DNA typing from diagnosis. All statistical tests were 2-sided.ResultsFor all racial and ethnic groups, most cases of cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade 3 (CIN3) (84.2%-90.8% of 5526) and squamous cell carcinoma (SCC) (90.4%-93.8% of 1138) were attributed to types targeted by the 9-valent vaccine. A higher proportion of CIN3s were attributed to nonvaccine HPV types among non-Hispanic Black women (15.8%) compared with non-Hispanic Asian or Pacific Islander (9.7%; P = .002), non-Hispanic White (9.2%; P < .001), and Hispanic (11.3%; P = .004) women. The proportion of SCCs attributed to 9-valent types was similar by race and ethnicity (P = .80). A higher proportion of CIN3s were attributed to nonvaccine HPV35 among non-Hispanic Black (9.0%) compared with non-Hispanic Asian or Pacific Islander (2.2%), non-Hispanic White (2.5%), and Hispanic (3.0%; all P < .001) women. Compared with CIN3, the proportion of SCCs attributed to HPV35 among non-Hispanic Black women (3.2%) was lower and closer to other groups (0.3%-2.1%; P = .70).ConclusionThe 9-valent HPV vaccine will prevent nearly all cervical precancers and invasive cancers among major racial and ethnic groups in the United States. Adding HPV35 to vaccines could prevent a small percentage of CIN3s and SCCs, with greater potential impact for CIN3s among Black women. HPV screening tests target high-risk HPV types, including HPV35. Future genotyping triage strategies could consider the importance of HPV35- and other HPV16-related types.

What Contributes to Pregnancy Complications Among Women With Cervical Intraepithelial Neoplasia Grade 3?

Benefits, harms and cost-effectiveness of cervical screening, triage and treatment strategies for women in the general population

Abstract In 2020, the World Health Organization (WHO) launched a strategy to eliminate cervical cancer as a public health problem. To support the strategy, the WHO published updated cervical screening guidelines in 2021. To inform this update, we used an established modeling platform, Policy1-Cervix , to evaluate the impact of seven primary screening scenarios across 78 low- and lower-middle-income countries (LMICs) for the general population of women. Assuming 70% coverage, we found that primary human papillomavirus (HPV) screening approaches were the most effective and cost-effective, reducing cervical cancer age-standardized mortality rates by 63–67% when offered every 5 years. Strategies involving triaging women before treatment (with 16/18 genotyping, cytology, visual inspection with acetic acid (VIA) or colposcopy) had close-to-similar effectiveness to HPV screening without triage and fewer pre-cancer treatments. Screening with VIA or cytology every 3 years was less effective and less cost-effective than HPV screening every 5 years. Furthermore, VIA generated more than double the number of pre-cancer treatments compared to HPV. In conclusion, primary HPV screening is the most effective, cost-effective and efficient cervical screening option in LMICs. These findings have directly informed WHO’s updated cervical screening guidelines for the general population of women, which recommend primary HPV screening in a screen-and-treat or screen-triage-and-treat approach, starting from age 30 years with screening every 5 years or 10 years.

A rapid HPV typing assay to support global cervical cancer screening and risk‐based management: A cross‐sectional study

AbstractThe World Health Organization recommends human papillomavirus (HPV) testing for cervical screening. Extended genotyping can identify the highest‐risk HPV‐positive women. An inexpensive, rapid, mobile isothermal amplification assay (ScreenFire HPV RS test) was recently redesigned to yield four channels ordered by cancer risk (ie, hierarchical approach): HPV16, HPV18/45, HPV31/33/35/52/58 and HPV39/51/56/59/68. Stored specimens from 2076 women (mean age 30.9) enrolled in a colposcopy clinic, with high HPV prevalence, were tested with ScreenFire. We calculated hierarchical channel positivity and non‐hierarchical channel and type positivity, according to histologic diagnosis (256 cancer, 350 cervical intraepithelial neoplasia [CIN]3, 409 CIN2, 1020 < CIN2) and known virologic reference results (Linear Array and TypeSeq). Additionally, we analyzed ScreenFire time‐to‐positive up to 60 min by channel and histology. Overall clinical sensitivity for CIN3+ was 94.7% (95% confidence interval 92.6‐96.4), similar to Linear Array (92.3, 89.7‐94.3) and TypeSeq (96.0, 93.9‐97.6). Sensitivity was high for all types and channels. The hierarchical approach was well in line with HPV typing and histologic diagnosis, prioritizing higher risk women having HPV16 and precancer. For HPV16, time‐to‐positive was shorter in women with precancer. ScreenFire showed excellent agreement with research reference typing tests and detection of CIN2+. Risk‐based type results could help guide clinical management of HPV‐positive women. Time‐to‐positive combined with genotyping might be useful. ScreenFire is rapid, mobile, relatively inexpensive and designed for implementation of HPV‐based screening and management, including in lower‐resource settings. Further validation in screening by self‐sampling and practical effectiveness merit evaluation.

A novel human papillomavirus and host DNA methylation score and detection of cervical adenocarcinoma

Abstract Background The widespread introduction of Pap testing in the 1960s was followed by substantial reductions in the incidence of cervical squamous cell cancer (SCC). However, the incidence of cervical adenocarcinoma (ADC) did not decrease, likely because of low Pap test sensitivity for ADC and adenocarcinoma in situ (AIS). This study assessed a novel human papillomavirus (HPV) and host DNA Methylation Score for AIS and ADC screening. Methods We measured methylation levels at CpG sites in the L2/L1 open reading frames of HPV16, HPV18, and HPV45—as well as 2 human loci, DCC and HS3ST2. Specifically, we tested exfoliated cervicovaginal cells from women in the HPV Persistence and Progression (PaP) cohort who were positive for 1 of HPV16, 18, or 45, including: 1) 176 with AIS/ADC, 2) 353 with cervical intraepithelial neoplasia–3 (CIN3) or SCC, and 3) controls who either cleared (HPV-Clearers; n = 579) or had persistent HPV16, 18, or 45 infection (HPV-Persisters; n = 292). CpG site–specific methylation percentages were measured using our reported next-generation methods. The Methylation Score was the average methylation percentage across all 35 CpG sites tested. Results Each individual CpG site had higher methylation percentages in exfoliated cervicovaginal cells collected from patients with AIS/ADC, and as well as those with CIN3/SCC, relative to either control group (weakest P  = .004). The Methylation Score for AIS/ADC had a sensitivity of 74% and specificity of 89%. The multivariate odds ratio (OR) between the Methylation Score (4th vs 1st quartile) for AIS/ADC was ORq4-q1 = 49.01 (PBenjamini-Hochberg = 4.64E-12), using HPV-Clearers as controls. CIN3/SCC had similar, albeit weaker, associations with the Methylation Score. Conclusions HPV16/18/45-infected women with Methylation Scores in the highest quartile had very high odds of AIS/ADC, suggesting they may warrant careful histologic evaluation of the cervical transition zone (eg, conization or loop electrosurgical excision procedure [LEEP]).

Primary human papillomavirus testing vs cotesting: clinical outcomes in populations with different disease prevalence

Abstract Implementation of primary human papillomavirus (HPV) testing has been slow in the United States perhaps because of concerns of decreased sensitivity compared with concurrent HPV and cytology testing (“cotesting”). We used the National Breast and Cervical Cancer Early Detection Program and the Kaiser Permanente of Northern California cohort to quantify potential trade-offs with primary HPV compared with cotesting in 4 US populations with differing precancer or cancer prevalence. In all settings, cotesting required more lab tests and more colposcopies compared with primary HPV testing. Additional cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade 3 or cancer immediately detected from cotesting vs primary HPV decreased with decreasing population-average cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade 3 or cancer prevalence from 71 per 100 000 screened among never or rarely screened individuals in the National Breast and Cervical Cancer Early Detection Program (prevalence = 1212 per 100 000) to 4 per 100 000 screened among individuals with prior HPV-negative results in Kaiser Permanente of Northern California (prevalence = 86 per 100 000). These data suggest that cotesting confer an unfavorable benefit-to-harm ratio over primary HPV testing.

Artificial intelligence–based image analysis in clinical testing: lessons from cervical cancer screening

Abstract Novel screening and diagnostic tests based on artificial intelligence (AI) image recognition algorithms are proliferating. Some initial reports claim outstanding accuracy followed by disappointing lack of confirmation, including our own early work on cervical screening. This is a presentation of lessons learned, organized as a conceptual step-by-step approach to bridge the gap between the creation of an AI algorithm and clinical efficacy. The first fundamental principle is specifying rigorously what the algorithm is designed to identify and what the test is intended to measure (eg, screening, diagnostic, or prognostic). Second, designing the AI algorithm to minimize the most clinically important errors. For example, many equivocal cervical images cannot yet be labeled because the borderline between cases and controls is blurred. To avoid a misclassified case-control dichotomy, we have isolated the equivocal cases and formally included an intermediate, indeterminate class (severity order of classes: case>indeterminate>control). The third principle is evaluating AI algorithms like any other test, using clinical epidemiologic criteria. Repeatability of the algorithm at the borderline, for indeterminate images, has proven extremely informative. Distinguishing between internal and external validation is also essential. Linking the AI algorithm results to clinical risk estimation is the fourth principle. Absolute risk (not relative) is the critical metric for translating a test result into clinical use. Finally, generating risk-based guidelines for clinical use that match local resources and priorities is the last principle in our approach. We are particularly interested in applications to lower-resource settings to address health disparities. We note that similar principles apply to other domains of AI-based image analysis for medical diagnostic testing.

Long-Term Prospective Cohort Study of Cervical Cancer Screening Using Triage of Women Who Are Human Papillomavirus–Positive With Dual Stain and Human Papillomavirus Genotyping

PURPOSE Primary human papillomavirus (HPV) testing has the best tradeoff of benefits and harms for cervical screening but requires triage to determine management among HPV positives. We conducted a prospective observational study to evaluate triage of women who are HPV-positive using dual stain (DS) and HPV genotyping. MATERIALS AND METHODS We included 9,645 consecutive women who are HPV-positive undergoing cervical screening in two periods between 2015 and 2017 in the organized cervical screening program at Kaiser Permanente Northern California. Absolute risk and clinical performance of DS and cytology for detection of cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade 3 and greater (CIN3+) were estimated overall and by HPV genotype and by age. Cumulative absolute risk of CIN3+ was modeled over 5 years using a prevalence-incidence mixture model, which allows estimating risk accounting for differences in disease ascertainment, surveillance intervals, and compliance. RESULTS The baseline risk of CIN3+ was 9.4% and 0.8% for women testing positive and negative for DS, respectively, and 6.9% and 2.0% for women testing positive and negative for cytology, respectively. Sensitivity, specificity, and predictive values for CIN3+ detection were better for DS compared with cytology over 5 years ( P < .001 for all comparisons). Risk in women with HPV16-positive/negative for intraepithelial lesion or malignancy was substantially higher than the risk in women with HPV16-positive/DS-negative (7.5% v 2.9%, P < .001). DS had better triage performance compared with cytology in all age groups and in women positive for HPV types other than HPV16 or HPV18. CONCLUSION Long-term reassurance of low risk among DS negatives suggests that DS detects molecular changes earlier in the carcinogenic pathway than cytology. DS has better risk stratification than cytology overall, within HPV risk strata, and across all screening age groups and is a better option for triage of vaccinated populations.

Validation of TypeSeq2, a Next-Generation–Based Sequencing Assay for the Detection of 46 Human Papillomavirus Genotypes, at the US National Cancer Institute and Costa Rica Laboratories

Abstract Background Cervical cancer is caused by persistent infection with carcinogenic human papillomavirus (HPV) genotypes. Prophylactic HPV vaccines are highly efficacious in preventing the acquisition of HPV infection. HPV vaccine trials and epidemiologic studies based on virologic endpoints rely on valid and reproducible measurements of HPV. We evaluated the second version of TypeSeq (TS2), a next-generation, sequencing-based assay that detects 46 HPV genotypes, in a historical phase 3 clinical trial. Methods We used 1214 stored cervical samples from women enrolled in the Costa Rica HPV Vaccine Trial with available HPV results from Short PCR Fragment 10- Line Probe Assay 25 (SPF10-LiPA25). TS2 was first validated at the National Cancer Institute (NCI) and transferred to the laboratory in Costa Rica, where we conducted a second validation study. We compared TS2 results generated at each laboratory to the SPF10-LiPA25 results. Results Overall, each laboratory demonstrated high positive agreement for most carcinogenic and noncarcinogenic genotypes between TS2 and SPF10-LiPA25. Intralaboratory comparisons revealed very high agreement in repeated testing. Interlaboratory comparisons showed high agreement for most carcinogenic and noncarcinogenic types. Overall, there were no statistically significant differences in vaccine efficacy in the according-to-protocol cohort using TS2 (either in NCI or Costa Rica) or SPF10-LiPA25 (McNemar P values >.05). Costa Rica produced similar vaccine efficacy estimates as NCI for HPV16/18, HPV31/33/45, and HPV35/39/51/52/56/58/59 as NCI (P values ≥.36). Conclusions Compared to SPF10-LiPA25, a well-established standard for HPV genotyping, TS2 demonstrated high accuracy. Inter- and intralaboratory comparisons demonstrated that TS2 is valid and reproducible. TS2 can accurately classify the presence of HPV, which is essential in HPV vaccine trials evaluating virological endpoints. Clinical Trials Registration NCT00128661.

Initial evaluation of a new cervical screening strategy combining human papillomavirus genotyping and automated visual evaluation: the Human Papillomavirus–Automated Visual Evaluation Consortium

Abstract The HPV-Automated Visual Evaluation Consortium is validating a cervical screening strategy enabling accurate cervical screening in resource-limited settings. A rapid, low-cost human papillomavirus (HPV) assay permits sensitive HPV testing of self-collected vaginal specimens; HPV-negative women are reassured. Triage of positive participants combines HPV genotyping (4 groups in order of cancer risk) and visual inspection assisted by automated cervical visual evaluation that classifies cervical appearance as severe, indeterminate, or normal. Together, the combination predicts which women have precancer, permitting targeted management to those most needing treatment. We analyzed CIN3+ yield for each HPV-Automated Visual Evaluation risk level (HPV genotype crossed by automated cervical visual evaluation classification) from 9 clinical sites (Brazil, Cambodia, Dominican Republic, El Salvador, Eswatini, Honduras, Malawi, Nigeria, and Tanzania). Data from 1832 HPV-positive participants confirmed that HPV genotype and automated cervical visual evaluation classification strongly and independently predict risk of histologic CIN3+. The combination of these low-cost tests provided excellent risk stratification, warranting pre-implementation demonstration projects.

Hypertension and Risk of Endometrial Cancer: A Pooled Analysis in the Epidemiology of Endometrial Cancer Consortium (E2C2)

Abstract Background: The incidence rates of endometrial cancer are increasing, which may partly be explained by the rising prevalence of obesity, an established risk factor for endometrial cancer. Hypertension, another component of metabolic syndrome, is also increasing in prevalence, and emerging evidence suggests that it may be associated with the development of certain cancers. The role of hypertension independent of other components of metabolic syndrome in the etiology of endometrial cancer remains unclear. In this study, we evaluated hypertension as an independent risk factor for endometrial cancer and whether this association is modified by other established risk factors. Methods: We included 15,631 endometrial cancer cases and 42,239 controls matched on age, race, and study-specific factors from 29 studies in the Epidemiology of Endometrial Cancer Consortium. We used multivariable unconditional logistic regression models to estimate ORs and 95% confidence intervals (CI) to evaluate the association between hypertension and endometrial cancer and whether this association differed by study design, race/ethnicity, body mass index, diabetes status, smoking status, or reproductive factors. Results: Hypertension was associated with an increased risk of endometrial cancer (OR, 1.14; 95% CI, 1.09–1.19). There was significant heterogeneity by study design (Phet < 0.01), with a stronger magnitude of association observed among case–control versus cohort studies. Stronger associations were also noted for pre-/perimenopausal women and never users of postmenopausal hormone therapy. Conclusions: Hypertension is associated with endometrial cancer risk independently from known risk factors. Future research should focus on biologic mechanisms underlying this association. Impact: This study provides evidence that hypertension may be an independent risk factor for endometrial cancer.

Validation of a Lab-free Low-cost Screening Test for Prevention of Cervical Cancer

The purpose of this study is to validate Automated Visual Evaluation (AVE), specifically the CINFinder version developed by DL Analytics, a point-of-care screening and triage diagnostic tool for cervical cancer based on the assessment of digital images through artificial intelligence. Several teams around the world have developed versions of AVE as a triage technology but none as a screening tool.