Risk-stratified CA125 screening integrating CA125 trajectories, trajectory-specific progression and transvaginal ultrasound for ovarian cancer
Cancer antigen 125 (CA125) is widely used for screening ovarian cancer (OC), yet its effectiveness remains debated. Potential factors may include ineffective cut-off value for CA125 in screening, as well as a lack of consideration for CA125 trajectories and trajectory-specific progression. Based on data from multiple rounds of CA125 tests and transvaginal ultrasound (TVU) examinations conducted on 28,456 women in the PLCO Trial, time-dependent receiver-operating-characteristic curves (ROCs) and area-under-the-curves (tdAUCs) analyses were employed to identify the optimal CA125 cut-off values for OC screening. Participants were categorized into four CA125 trajectories: stable negative CA125 (CA125 After a median follow-up of 14.8 years for OC incidence and 23.8 years for OC mortality, 250 OC cases and 218 OC deaths were identified. The tdAUC for 10-year OC incidence with CA125 was 0.663, with an optimal cut-off value of 13.00 U/ml. Trajectory analyses showed that both CA125 Incorporating CA125 trajectories and trajectory-specific progression into screening protocols enhances the identification of the population at high-risk of OC. An optimized screening strategy, which includes these factors along with TVU, is recommended to improve the effectiveness of OC screening.