The effect of hrHPV prevalence on cervical cancer screening strategies: a cost-effectiveness study of Bangladesh
Cervical cancer is the second most prominent cancer among women in Bangladesh, which is mainly caused by persistent infection with high-risk human papillomavirus (hrHPV). This study aims to evaluate impact of hrHPV prevalence on cost-effectiveness of screening with self-sampling hrHPV testing versus visual inspection with acetic acid (VIA) for cervical cancer screening in low- and middle-income countries with Bangladesh as an example. A micro-simulation Markov model was developed from a health system perspective in Bangladesh to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of screening with self-sampling hrHPV testing followed by VIA and VIA as primary screening method followed by colposcopy. We compared these strategies in optimal (70%) and realistic (8.7%) uptake scenarios, considering different hrHPV prevalence rates. Key indicators for cost-effectiveness were number of prevented cervical cancers cases and incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER). The number of cervical cancers cases prevented by screening and cost-effectiveness of screening strategies increased as hrHPV prevalence increased. In both optimal and realistic uptake scenarios, hrHPV test + VIA strategy prevented more cancers than VIA + colposcopy strategy in most instances. Regardless of the uptake, both screening strategies were cost-effective compared to no screening within a hrHPV prevalence range of 2-30%, and the hrHPV test-based strategy was cost-effective compared with VIA-based strategy. When the price of hrHPV test was estimated 50% lower (10 USD), the hrHPV test-based strategy gained more life years at nearly the same cost as the VIA-based strategy. Our study demonstrates that the hrHPV test + VIA strategy is cost-effective both compared to no screening and VIA + colposcopy screening strategy under the optimal (70%) and realistic (8.7%) uptake scenarios, with greater cost-effectiveness at higher hrHPV prevalence levels. While VIA-based strategy is cheaper, self-sampling hrHPV test-based strategy offers greater health benefits. Implementing hrHPV testing in national screening programs at lower hrHPV test prices is crucial for promoting health equity and accelerating cervical cancer elimination worldwide. In resource-constrained settings, screening with hrHPV testing should initially target high-prevalence populations.