Race‐specific temporal trends of HPV ‐related cancers in South Africa: An analysis of the South African National Cancer Registry, 2011–2022

Abstract

Evaluating trends in HPV‐related cancer rates by race is essential for identifying high‐risk populations and improving prevention efforts. Using 2011–2022 South African National Cancer Registry data, we analyzed age‐standardized incidence rates by race and sex across three periods (2011–2014, 2015–2018, 2019–2022) using linear regression. Significant increases were observed for oropharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma (SCC) among White females ( p  < .01), vulvar SCC among Asian ( p  < .01) and Black ( p  = .02) females, and anal SCC among Colored females and Black males ( p  < .01). Cervical carcinoma rates remained stable for most racial groups, except for the annual trends showing a 1.9% increase per year (95% CI = 1.0, 2.7) among White females. These findings suggest rising incidence rates for some HPV‐related cancers across racial groups in South Africa. Further research is needed to explore the constellation of risk factors contributing to these trends and to guide targeted interventions.