Journal

The Lancet Public Health

Papers (22)

Uptake and performance of self-collection offered through primary care to all eligible participants in a national cervical screening programme in Australia: a retrospective cohort study

Human papillomavirus (HPV) testing of self-collected samples can improve uptake of cervical screening without compromising diagnostic yield. However, real-world evidence from population-based screening programmes remains scarce. We aimed to evaluate the effect of Australia's expansion of self-collection eligibility criteria on self-collection uptake and compare the detection of histologically verified high-grade lesions and cancer between self-collected and clinician-collected samples among individuals directly referred for colposcopy. This retrospective cohort study was conducted as part of ongoing quality assurance and safety monitoring of the Australian National Cervical Screening Program, which expanded self-collection eligibility to all people with a cervix (herein referred to as women) aged 25-74 years on July 1, 2022, after initially offering self-collection only to women aged 30 years and older who were at least 2 years overdue or never screened through primary care when it transitioned to primary HPV testing on Dec 1, 2017. We extracted data from women aged between 24 years 9 months and 74 years enrolled in Australia's National Cancer Screening Register. We calculated uptake of self-collected samples as the proportion of all valid HPV tests for each quarter in a calendar year between Dec 1, 2017, and Dec 31, 2023. We compared the detection of high-grade lesions and cancer between self-collected and clinician-collected samples in women referred for colposcopy between July 1, 2022, and June 30, 2023, using multivariable logistic regression. We adjusted analyses for age, socioeconomic status, geographical remoteness, and screening status. Uptake of self-collected samples steadily increased after the eligibility criteria were expanded in July, 2022, from 1·2% in the second quarter of 2022 to 26·9% in the fourth quarter of 2023. Uptake was highest among women who were more than 10 years overdue for screening (51·9%), those living in very remote (53·9%) and disadvantaged areas (≤29·1%), and those aged 70-74 years (33·5%). Between Dec 1, 2017, and June 30, 2023, a total of 4 926 713 women had a valid HPV test, with 484 622 (9·8%) testing positive for HPV. Between July 1, 2022, and June 30, 2023, 421 511 women had a valid HPV test and 63 541 (15·1%) were positive for HPV. HPV positivity was significantly higher in self-collected than clinician-collected samples (16·4% vs 14·8%; p<0·001), with baseline differences between groups. Among those referred for colposcopy, detection of high-grade lesions was similar between self-collected and clinician-collected samples after adjusting for potential confounders, both for women with HPV-16/18 (adjusted odds ratio [OR] 0·96 [95% CI 0·81-1·13]) and those with HPV types other than 16/18 with cytology prediction of high-grade lesions or worse or atypical glandular cells or worse (0·87 [0·67-1·13]). Histological detection of cancer was similar between self-collected and clinician-collected samples, both for those with HPV 16/18 (adjusted OR 0·71 [95% CI 0·36-1·40]) and those with HPV types other than 16/18 with cytology prediction of high-grade lesions or worse or atypical glandular cells or worse (1·20 [0·31-4·62]). Universal access to self-collection through primary care substantially increased cervical screening uptake in under-screened populations in Australia, while maintaining performance in the histological detection of high-grade lesions and cancer. Offering self-collection to every woman is an important addition to cervical screening programmes to improve equity and drive efforts in the global elimination of cervical cancer. None.

Herd effect of human papillomavirus vaccination on incidence of high-grade cervical lesions: a population-based cohort study in Sweden

Human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination has substantially reduced the incidence of high-grade cervical lesions (HSIL+) among vaccinated individuals. However, indirect effects on unvaccinated populations remain unclear. We assessed herd effects by examining age-varying HSIL+ incidence among unvaccinated women in Sweden. We conducted a nationwide, retrospective, register-based cohort study including 857 168 girls and women born between 1985 and 2000, using data from the Swedish National Cervical Screening Registry and several national health and population registries. Participants were grouped by birth cohorts exposed to different HPV vaccination strategies: opportunistic vaccination (1985-88; reference group), subsidised vaccination (1989-92), catch-up vaccination (1993-98), and school-based vaccination (1999-2000). Participants were followed up from age 10 years or from Jan 1, 2006, whichever came later, until their first HPV dose, an HSIL+ diagnosis, emigration, death, their 35th birthday, or Dec 31, 2022. Poisson regression was used to estimate age-constant and age-varying incidence rate ratios (IRRs) of HSIL+ among unvaccinated individuals across cohorts. The study population, followed up from Jan 1, 2006, to Dec 31, 2022, consisted of 857 168 girls and women who had not been previously vaccinated for HPV or received a diagnosis of HSIL+ at baseline. We identified 42 274 cases of HSIL+, with cumulative incidence differing across birth cohorts and lowest in the 1999-2000 cohort. For participants aged 23 years, with the 1985-88 cohort as the reference group, the IRR of HSIL+ was 0·53 (95% CI 0·39-0·73) in the 1999-2000 cohort, 1·26 (1·19-1·34) in the 1993-98 cohort, and 1·26 (1·18-1·34) in the 1989-92 cohort. IRRs in the older cohorts were reduced with increased age, declining to 1·00 (0·87-1·05) by the age of 29 years for the 1993-98 cohort and 0·89 (0·80-0·99) by the age of 33 years for the 1989-92 cohort. HSIL+ incidence in unvaccinated women declined in the birth cohort eligible for HPV vaccination through a school-based programme. This finding shows that the herd effect can be achieved through high-coverage HPV vaccination. Swedish Research Council, Swedish Research Council for Health, Working Life and Welfare, Karolinska Institutet, and Horizon Europe.

Drivers of human papillomavirus vaccine uptake in migrant populations and interventions to improve coverage: a systematic review and meta-analysis

WHO's Cervical Cancer Elimination Initiative has set a target for 90% of girls to be fully vaccinated against human papillomavirus (HPV) by the age of 15 years by 2030, to substantially reduce deaths from cervical and other HPV-related cancers. However, progress has been slow, with only 27% global vaccine coverage in 2023. Migrants are an under-immunised group globally for many vaccine-preventable diseases, with data showing that they experience a high burden of HPV infection and widespread HPV under-immunisation. We aimed to identify drivers of HPV vaccine uptake in migrants, as well as assess uptake and explore recommended approaches, strategies, and best practices to promote uptake in migrant communities. In this systematic review and meta-analysis, we searched seven databases and several grey literature sources for information published in any language between Jan 1, 2006, and Dec 4, 2024, on the drivers of HPV vaccine uptake among migrants globally. Defining migrants as foreign-born nationals, we included qualitative and quantitative cross-sectional studies, cohort studies, and randomised controlled trials focused on first-generation and second-generation migrants and excluded studies of internal migrants. Outcomes were frequency and percentage of HPV vaccine uptake; factors positively or negatively influencing uptake; and recommended approaches, strategies, and best practices to promote uptake as reported by study authors or participants. We conducted a hybrid thematic analysis using the WHO Behavioural and Social Drivers of Vaccination model to map drivers of uptake, and a random-effects meta-analysis to calculate pooled estimates of uptake. Risk of bias was assessed using Joanna Briggs Institute checklists. This study is registered with PROSPERO, CRD42022347513. Of 3562 records returned by the search, 117 studies were included in the analysis, involving 5 638 838 participants across 16 countries and one territory, of whom 933 189 were first-generation and second-generation migrants. The pooled estimates of HPV vaccine uptake were 23·0% (95% CI 10·0-44·0; I We show that migrants globally face complex individual, family and social, and provider-level and system-level barriers to HPV vaccination, resulting in low uptake of HPV vaccines and missed opportunities for protection. In many low-income and middle-income countries, there is little to no availability of vaccines and/or the recipient must pay for them. Achieving global commitments to universal and equitable immunisation across the life course-and making progress towards cervical cancer elimination-requires these barriers to be addressed through multipronged strategies. Collaborative efforts with migrant communities are essential to co-develop effective, tailored delivery models that meet their unique needs. The National Institute for Health and Care Research, the Academy of Medical Sciences, and the Medical Research Council.

Accelerating cervical cancer elimination in Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander women: a modelling study

Australia aims to achieve cervical cancer elimination (incidence <4 cases per 100 000 women) nationally by 2035. Incidence in Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander women is around twice the national rate, driven by long-standing inequity in screening. We aimed to predict when elimination would be achieved among Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander women, and if increased vaccination or screening coverage could expedite elimination, using a cervical cancer simulation model. In this modelling study, we adapted Policy1-Cervix-an existing dynamic model of human papillomavirus (HPV) transmission and vaccination, and linked model of HPV natural history, cervical screening, and cancer-to reflect data on Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander women. We compared the timing of cervical cancer elimination for a scenario where current coverage continues to seven hypothetical scenarios involving improved vaccination and screening coverage in Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander women: increased HPV vaccination coverage (from 80·9% to 90·0% in 12-year-old females); increased uptake (reducing the proportion of individuals who are never-screened); timeliness (reducing under-screening); and increased follow-up attendance. Cervical cancer elimination timing was defined as the first year from which cervical cancer incidence was consistently lower than 4 per 100 000 women. Under current vaccination and screening rates in Australia, cervical cancer elimination among Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander women was projected to occur in 2047, 21 years later than projected for Australian women overall (2026). Improving vaccination coverage (from 80·9% to 90·0%) improved longer-term outcomes but did not accelerate elimination in Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander women. Increasing screening uptake, on-time attendance, and attendance for follow-up tests to match national rates expedited elimination in Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander women by 4 years (2043). A one-off large-scale screening initiative that reached every unscreened Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander women, and sustained efforts thereafter, could achieve elimination by 2036, aligning with national targets and setting a precedent for global efforts. Urgent effective action to improve culturally safe access to screening and follow-up could markedly accelerate cervical cancer elimination among Indigenous women in Australia. National Health and Medical Research Council (Australia) and Cancer Institute NSW.

Cervical screening approach of self-collection, point-of-care HPV testing, and same-day colposcopy among Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander women in remote Western Australia (the PREVENT Project): an implementation study

Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander women can face substantial cancer screening barriers in remote areas. To support WHO cervical cancer elimination targets, we evaluated a novel screening approach integrating self-collection, point-of-care human papillomavirus (HPV) testing, and same-day specialist assessment for Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander women in remote Western Australia. We developed a screening approach using point-of-care HPV testing on self-collected samples with same-day results and immediate specialist assessment. This implementation study was delivered to six remote Kimberley Aboriginal communities and assessed clinical outcomes and participant satisfaction. The approach was implemented as part of routine outreach gynaecology care between Sept 1 and Dec 31, 2022, with follow-up for cervical test results continuing up to March 31, 2023. Women aged 25-74 years were eligible for this study if they identified as an Aboriginal and/or Torres Strait Islander, were asymptomatic, were due or overdue for cervical screening (or had not had a previous HPV screening test), and were residing in a remote community. The primary objective of this study was to assess whether a point-of-care testing and same-day follow-up approach increased participation in cervical screening among under-screened and never-screened Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander women in remote Western Australia. Of the 844 women identified as eligible, 303 (36%) were directly invited to participate. Within 4 months, 108 women participated in the intervention, a 36% response rate. Among participants, 22 (21%) of 108 tested positive for oncogenic HPV, with 21 (95%) of these completing the same-day colposcopic assessment. No high-grade cervical abnormalities were detected. Participants reported high satisfaction with self-collection rapid results and same-day specialist access, with 107 (99%) indicating a willingness to recommend the approach to others. We showed the feasibility of integrating portable, same-day cervical screening and follow-up care into remote health-care settings, achieved through successful community engagement and advocacy. These findings offer valuable insights for policy makers and opportunities to increase women's participation in screening programmes, particularly in geographically remote areas. Department of Health's Indigenous Australians' Health Programme Emerging Priorities Grant, Australian Gynaecological Cancer Foundation's Cindy Sullivan Fellowship, Mary Jane Foundation, and National Health and Medical Research Council.

Potential population-level effectiveness of one-dose HPV vaccination in low-income and middle-income countries: a mathematical modelling analysis

Given the accumulating evidence that one-dose vaccination could provide high and sustained protection against human papillomavirus (HPV) infection and related diseases, we examined the population-level effectiveness and efficiency of one-dose HPV vaccination of girls compared with two-dose vaccination, using mathematical modelling. In this mathematical modelling study, we used HPV-ADVISE LMIC, an individual-based transmission-dynamic model independently calibrated to four epidemiologically diverse low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs; India, Nigeria, Uganda, and Viet Nam). We parameterised and calibrated the model using sexual behaviour and epidemiological data identified from international population-based datasets and the literature. All base-case vaccination scenarios start in 2023 with the nonavalent vaccine and assumed 80% vaccination coverage with one or two doses. We assumed that two doses of vaccine provide 100% efficacy against vaccine-type infections and a lifelong duration of protection. We examined a non-inferior vaccination scenario for one dose compared with two doses, pessimistic scenarios of lower one-dose vaccine efficacy (85%) or a shorter duration of protection (ie, 20 or 30 years), and the effectiveness of a mitigation scenario in which schedules would switch from one dose to two doses. We also did sensitivity analyses by varying vaccination coverage. We used three outcomes: the relative reduction in cervical cancer incidence, the number of cervical cancers averted, and the number of vaccine doses needed to prevent one cervical cancer. Assuming non-inferior vaccine characteristics for one dose compared with two doses, the model projections show that two-dose or one-dose routine vaccination of girls aged 9 years (with a multi-age cohort vaccination of girls aged 10-14 years) would avert 12·0 million (80% UI 9·5-14·5) cervical cancers in India, 4·7 million (3·4-5·8) in Nigeria, 2·3 million (1·9-2·6) in Uganda, and 0·4 million (0·2-0·5) in Viet Nam over 100 years. Under pessimistic assumptions of lower one-dose efficacy (85%) or a shorter duration of protection (ie, 30 years), one-dose routine vaccination would avert 69% (61-80) to 94% (92-96) of the cervical cancers averted with two-dose routine vaccination. However, when assuming a duration of protection of 20 years, one-dose routine vaccination would avert substantially fewer cervical cancers (ie, 35% [26-44] to 69% [65-71] of the cervical cancers averted with two-dose routine vaccination). A switch from one-dose to two-dose routine vaccination of girls aged 9 years, with a one-dose catch-up of girls aged 10-14 years, 5 years after the start of the vaccination programme, could mitigate potential losses in cervical cancer prevention from a short one-dose duration of protection (averting 92% [83-98] to 99% [97-100]) of the cervical cancers averted with two-dose routine vaccination). One-dose routine vaccination would result in fewer doses needed to prevent one cervical cancer than two-dose routine vaccination, even if the duration of protection is as low as 20 years. Finally, for countries with two-dose routine vaccination, adding one-dose multi-age cohort vaccination in the first year would provide similar benefits as a two-dose multi-age cohort vaccination, and would be more efficient even under the pessimistic assumptions of lower one-dose vaccine efficacy or duration of protection. One-dose routine vaccination could avert most of the cervical cancers averted with two-dose vaccination while being more efficient, provided the duration of one-dose protection is greater than 20-30 years (depending on the LMIC). The doses saved by introducing one-dose routine vaccination could offer the opportunity to vaccinate girls before they age out of the vaccination window of 9-14 years and, potentially, to vaccinate boys or older age groups. Fonds de recherche du Québec-Santé, Digital Research Alliance of Canada, Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Initial impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on sexual and reproductive health service use and unmet need in Britain: findings from a quasi-representative survey (Natsal-COVID)

The COVID-19 pandemic has affected sexual and reproductive health (SRH) service use and unmet need, but the impact is unknown. We aimed to determine the proportion of participants reporting sexual risk behaviours, SRH service use and unmet need, and to assess remote sexually transmitted infection (STI) testing service use after the first national lockdown in Britain. We used data from the National Surveys of Sexual Attitudes and Lifestyles (Natsal)-COVID cross-sectional, quasi-representative web survey (Natsal-COVID Wave 1). Adults aged 18-59 years who resided in England, Scotland, or Wales completed the survey between July 29 and Aug 10, 2020, which included questions about the approximate 4-month period after announcement of the initial lockdown in Britain (March 23, 2020). Quota-based sampling and weighting were used to achieve a quasi-representative population sample. Participants aged 45-59 years were excluded from services analysis due to low rates of SRH service use. Among individuals aged 18-44 years, we estimated reported SRH service use and inability to access, and calculated age-adjusted odds ratios (aORs) among sexually experienced individuals (those reporting any sexual partner in their lifetime) and sexually active individuals (those reporting any sexual partner in the past year). Unweighted denominators and weighted estimates are presented hereafter. 6654 individuals had complete interviews and were included in the analysis. Among 3758 participants aged 18-44 years, 82·0% reported being sexually experienced, and 73·7% reported being sexually active. 20·8% of sexually experienced participants aged 18-44 years reported using SRH services in the 4-month period. Overall, 9·7% of 3108 participants (9·5% of men; 9·9% of women) reported being unable to use a service they needed, although of the participants who reported trying but not being able to use a SRH service at least once, 76·4% of participants also reported an instance of successful use. 5·9% of 1221 sexually active men and 3·6% of 1560 sexually active women reported use of STI-related services and 14·8% of 1728 sexually experienced women reported use of contraceptive services, with SRH service use highest among individuals aged 18-24 years. Sexually active participants reporting condomless sex with new partners since lockdown were much more likely to report using STI-related services than those who did not report condomless sex (aOR 23·8 [95% CI 11·6-48·9]) for men, 10·5 [3·9-28·2] for women) and, among men, were also more likely to have an unsuccessful attempt at STI-service use (aOR 13·3 [5·3-32·9]). Among 106 individuals who reported using STI testing services, 64·4% accessed services remotely (telephone, video, or online). Among 2581 women aged 25-59 years, 2·4% reported cervical screening compared with an estimated 6% in a comparable 4-month period before the pandemic. Many people accessed SRH care during the initial lockdown; however, young people and those reporting sexual risk behaviours reported difficulties in accessing services and thus such services might need to address a backlog of need. Wellcome Trust, The Economic and Social Research Council, The National Institute for Health Research, Medical Research Council/Chief Scientist Office and Public Health Sciences Unit, and UCL Coronavirus Response Fund.

Human papillomavirus-based cervical screening and long-term cervical cancer risk: a randomised health-care policy trial in Sweden

Human papillomavirus (HPV)-based cervical screening is a globally recommended public health policy. Randomised clinical trials find superior performance of primary HPV-based screening compared with cytology for preventing cervical cancer. However, additional evidence from real-world public health policies is needed. In preplanned secondary analysis of a randomised health-care policy trial in Sweden we aimed to evaluate which policy provided better protection against invasive cervical cancer, after two full rounds of screening. The organised cervical screening programme in the capital region of Sweden invited all women aged 30-64 years and eligible for screening to a randomised health-care policy trial of HPV-based versus cytology-based screening. During 2014-16, 395 725 eligible women were randomly assigned (non-concealed) to either policy and the invasive cervical cancer incidences over 8 years of follow-up were compared. Intention-to-screen analyses included all invited women and per-protocol analyses the women that attended baseline screening according to protocol. This trial is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT01511328. Women invited to HPV-based cervical screening had a 17% lower invasive cervical cancer risk compared with women invited to cytology (hazard ratio [HR] 0·83, 95% CI 0·70-0·98). Women participating in HPV-based screening had a 28% lower invasive cervical cancer risk compared with women participating with cytology (HR 0·72, 95% CI 0·54-0·95). Adverse events were a higher number of referrals to colposcopy with biopsy in the HPV policy (15 832 [7·5%] of 212 199 in intention to screen analyses and 9968 [9·0%] of 110 176 per protocol at baseline) than in the cytology policy (12 650 [6·9%] of 183 120 in intention to screen analyses, and 7179 [7·9%] of 90 821 per protocol at baseline). Women who were HPV-negative at baseline had invasive cervical cancer risks of 1·3 (95% CI 0·6-2·4) per 100 000 person-years, whereas the risk for women with normal cytology was 9·1 (6·7-11·8) per 100 000 person-years. HPV-positive women with negative cytology triage had invasive cervical cancer risks of 79·2 per 100 000 person-years and HPV 16 or HPV 18-positive women with negative cytology triage had risks of 318·2 per 100 000 person-years. This randomised policy trial found HPV-based screening to be superior for preventing invasive cervical cancer in the real-world setting. A single baseline HPV-negative test was associated with a very low invasive cervical cancer risk after 8 years. However, HPV positivity with negative cytology triage was associated with high invasive cervical cancer risks. Region Stockholm, Swedish Cancer Society, and European Union Horizon 2020.

The cost-effectiveness profile of sex-neutral HPV immunisation in European tender-based settings: a model-based assessment

In many European countries, human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccine uptake among girls has remained below target levels, supporting the scope for vaccination of boys. We aimed to investigate if sex-neutral HPV vaccination can be considered cost-effective compared with girls-only vaccination at uptake levels equal to those among girls and under tender-based vaccination costs achieved throughout Europe. We investigated the cost-effectiveness of sex-neutral HPV vaccination in European tender-based settings. We applied a Bayesian synthesis framework for health economic evaluation to 11 countries (Austria, Belgium, Croatia, Estonia, Italy, Latvia, the Netherlands, Poland, Slovenia, Spain, and Sweden), accommodating country-specific information on key epidemiological and economic parameters, and on current HPV vaccination programmes. We used projections from three independently developed HPV transmission models to tailor region-specific herd effects. The main outcome measures in the comparison of sex-neutral with girls-only vaccination were cancer cases prevented and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs), defined as the cost in international dollars (I$) per life-year gained. The total number of cancer cases to be prevented by vaccinating girls at currently realised vaccine uptake varied from 318 (95% CI 197-405) per cohort of 200 000 preadolescents (100 000 girls plus 100 000 boys) in Croatia (under 20% uptake of the 9-valent vaccine) to 1904 (1741-2101) in Estonia (under 70% uptake of the 9-valent vaccine). Vaccinating boys at equal coverage increased these respective numbers by 168 (95% CI 121-213) in Croatia and 467 (391-587) in Estonia. Sex-neutral vaccination was likely to be cost-effective, with ICERs of sex-neutral compared with girls-only vaccination varying from I$4300 per life-year gained in Latvia (95% credibility interval 3450-5160; 40% uptake) to I$25 720 per life-year gained in Spain (21 380-30 330; 80% uptake). At uniform 80% uptake, a favourable cost-effectiveness profile was retained for most of the countries investigated (Austria, Belgium, Italy, Latvia, the Netherlands, Slovenia, Spain, and Sweden). Sex-neutral HPV vaccination is economically attractive in European tender-based settings. However, tendering mechanisms need to ensure that vaccination of boys will remain cost-effective at high vaccine uptake rates. European Commission 7th Framework Programme and WHO.

Projected time to elimination of cervical cancer in the USA: a comparative modelling study

In May, 2018, the Director-General of WHO issued a global call to eliminate cervical cancer as a public health problem, which will involve ambitious screening and vaccination coverage targets. We aimed to assess the potential for, and timing of, cervical cancer elimination in the USA and whether this could be expedited by adopting ambitious coverage targets, using two cervical cancer simulation models. In this modelling study, we used two independently-developed cervical cancer microsimulation models-Harvard and Policy1-Cervix-to estimate changes in the incidence of human papillomavirus (HPV)-induced cervical cancer over time in the USA, including herd effects from vaccination. We compared nine alternative scenarios for prophylactic HPV vaccination and cervical screening scale-up with a status quo scenario that involved no additional interventions in the context of a threshold for cervical cancer elimination of four or fewer cases per 100 000 women-years. We also estimated the number of cervical cancer cases that could be averted between 2019 and 2100 associated with the adoption of ambitious goals for cervical cancer screening and vaccination coverage, and other potential strategies. Under status quo assumptions, the Havard and Policy1-Cervix models projected that cervical cancer incidence would decrease to less than four or fewer new cases per 100 000 women-years by the 2038 and 2046, respectively. Scaling up screening coverage to 90% in 2020, was the most effective intervention to expedite time to elimination (10-13-year reduction), averting a mean of 1400-2088 additional cases annually between 2019 and 2100. Increasing HPV vaccination coverage to 90% or vaccinating adults aged 26-45 years had relatively little effect on cervical cancer incidence. Sensitivity analysis using different population structures resulted in differences in time to elimination (range -10 years to +27 years) compared with status quo predictions. The USA is on track to eliminate cervical cancer as a public health problem in the next two to three decades. Time to elimination could be expedited by 10-13 years by achieving higher screening coverage. Targeting of underscreened and under-vaccinated women remains key to achieving cervical cancer elimination for all women. US National Cancer Institute.

Global estimates of expected and preventable cervical cancers among girls born between 2005 and 2014: a birth cohort analysis

WHO has launched an initiative aiming to eliminate cervical cancer as a public health problem. Elimination is a long-term target that needs long-lasting commitment. To support local authorities in implementing human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination, we provide regional and country-specific estimates of cervical cancer burden and the projected impact of HPV vaccination among today's young girls who could develop cervical cancer if not vaccinated. The expected number of cervical cancer cases in the absence of vaccination among girls born between 2005 and 2014 was quantified by combining age-specific incidence rates from GLOBOCAN 2018 and cohort-specific mortality rates by age from UN demographic projections. Preventable cancers were estimated on the basis of HPV prevalence reduction attributable to vaccination and the relative contribution of each HPV type to cervical cancer incidence. We assessed the number of cervical cancer cases preventable through vaccines targeting HPV types 16 and 18, with and without cross-protection, and through vaccines targeting HPV types 16, 18, 31, 33, 45, 52, and 58. Globally, without vaccination, the burden of cervical cancer in these birth cohorts is expected to reach 11·6 million (95% uncertainty interval 11·4-12·0) cases by 2094. Approximately 75% of the burden will be concentrated in 25 countries mostly located in Africa and Asia, where the future number of cases is expected to increase manyfold, reaching 5·6 million (5·4-6·0) cases in Africa and 4·5 million (4·4-4·6) cases in Asia. Worldwide immunisation with an HPV vaccine targeted to HPV types 16 and 18, with cross-protection against HPV types 31, 33, and 45, could prevent about 8·7 million (8·5-9·0) cases. Detailed estimates of the increasing burden of cervical cancer and projected impact of HPV vaccination is of immediate relevance to public health decision makers. Shifting the focus of projections towards recently born girls who could develop cervical cancer if not vaccinated is fundamental to overcome stakeholders' hesitancy towards HPV vaccination. Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Canadian Institutes of Health Research.

Cancer screening participation and outcomes among people with an intellectual disability in the Netherlands: a cross-sectional population-based study

People with an intellectual disability face diverse health disparities, including challenges accessing cancer care. In the Netherlands, as in many other countries, there are national screening programmes for early detection of breast, cervical, and colon cancer. These programmes were, however, initially introduced for the general population, and they often fail to meet the needs of the population with intellectual disability. This study aimed to assess participation rates and screening outcomes of these screening programmes for the population with intellectual disability compared with the general population. In this cross-sectional population-based study, we identified adults (age >18 years) with intellectual disability and matched them at a 1:4 ratio to individuals from the general population from Jan 1, 2015, to Dec 31, 2021, in the Netherlands. National long-term care and supportive databases were used to identify people with an intellectual disability, which were matched to the database for the national cancer screening programmes based on age and gender. The primary outcome was to assess the participation rates for the national breast cancer, cervical cancer, and colon cancer screening programmes. We also assessed whether the screening outcomes were favourable or not in the group with intellectual disability compared with the general population. We identified 187 149 people with intellectual disability and 760 907 individuals from the general population, of whom 100 204 individuals with intellectual disability and 480 103 individuals from the general population were invited at least once for cancer screening during follow-up. Individuals with intellectual disability, compared with the general population, have significantly lower participation rates for cervical cancer screening (45·2% vs 68·1%; adjusted odds ratio 0·38 [95% CI 0·38-0·39], p<0·0001), breast cancer screening (55·5% vs 76·0%; 0·40 [0·39-0·41], p<0·0001), and colon cancer screening (51·7% vs 72·7%; 0.40 [0·41-0·42], p<0·0001). Although cancer screening outcomes are similar for people in both cohorts, the prevalence of invalid (insufficient sample) outcomes was higher among people with intellectual disability than the general population for breast cancer screening (0·9% vs <0·1%, 41·90 [30·35-57·92], p<0·0001) and cervical cancer screening (0·2% vs <0·1%, 5·43 [3·59-8·19], p<0·0001). Additionally, unreliable screening outcomes for colon cancer were more frequent in the population with intellectual disability than the general population (unreliable favourable outcomes 4·90 [4·55-5·83], p<0·0001; unreliable unfavourable outcomes 2·79 [2·37-3·39], p<0·0001). For all three cancer screening programmes, participation is significantly lower, with more invalid screening outcomes among individuals with intellectual disability. This finding indicates that the public health screening policies are not accessible and appropriate for people with intellectual disability. Maarten van der Weijden Foundation, the Netherlands Organisation for Health Research and Development, and the Ministry of Health, Welfare, and Sport.

The role of mental illness and neurodevelopmental conditions in human papillomavirus vaccination uptake within the Swedish school-based vaccination programme: a population-based cohort study

Despite documented mental illness-related disparities in cervical cancer screening and incidence, insufficient data exist on differences in cervical cancer prevention strategies, such as human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination. We aimed to investigate the association of mental illness and neurodevelopmental conditions among girls and their parents with uptake of HPV vaccination in Sweden. This population-based cohort study was based on the Swedish school-based HPV vaccination programme, which offers the first vaccine dose to girls aged 10-13 years, with a second dose offered within 12 months. We identified all girls born between Jan 1, 2002, and March 1, 2004, using the Swedish Total Population Register-ie, those eligible for two vaccine doses in the vaccination programme from its initiation in autumn 2012, to March, 2019. Nationwide Swedish register data (National Patient Register, Prescribed Drug Register, HPV Vaccination Register, National Vaccination Register, Total Population Register, Multi-Generation Register, Longitudinal Integrated Database for Health Insurance and Labour Market Studies, Education Register, National Cervical Screening Registry, and Cancer Register) were used to define individual and parental mental health conditions, including mental illness and neurodevelopmental conditions (defined by a clinical diagnosis and prescribed psychotropic medication use), HPV vaccine uptake (first and second dose), and sociodemographic and clinical characteristics. The two outcomes were uptake of the first HPV vaccine dose by the girl's 14th birthday and uptake of the second dose by the 15th birthday in relation to individual and parental mental health conditions, calculated using multivariable Poisson regression models. 115 104 girls were included in the study population. 2211 girls (1·9%) had a specialist diagnosis of any mental health condition. Uptake of the first HPV vaccine dose was 80·7% (92 912 of 115 104) and was lower among girls with versus without any mental health condition (adjusted relative risk 0·89 [95% CI 0·87-0·91]). The diagnosis of autism (0·79 [0·75-0·85]) or intellectual disability (0·78 [0·73-0·83]) were most strongly associated with lower HPV vaccine uptake. Vaccine uptake was also lower among girls with versus those without prescribed use of psychotropic medication (0·93 [0·92-0·95]), with the strongest association observed for antipsychotics (0·68 [0·56-0·82]). Uptake of the second dose was 95·0% (88 308 of 92 912), with no strong associations between uptake and mental health conditions in girls or their parents. Our findings suggest disparities in cervical cancer prevention among girls with mental health conditions, and call for further research to ensure equitable protection. Swedish Cancer Society.

Effect of HPV self-collection kits on cervical cancer screening uptake among under-screened women from low-income US backgrounds (MBMT-3): a phase 3, open-label, randomised controlled trial

Most cervical cancer in the USA occurs in under-screened women. The My Body, My Test-3 (MBMT-3) trial sought to assess the efficacy of mailed human papillomavirus (HPV) self-collection kits with appointment-scheduling assistance to increase uptake of cervical cancer screening among under-screened women from low-income backgrounds compared with scheduling assistance alone. MBMT-3 is a phase 3, open-label, two-arm, randomised controlled trial. Participants were recruited from 22 counties in North Carolina state, USA, and we partnered with 21 clinics across these counties. Participants were eligible for inclusion if they were aged 25-64 years, had an intact cervix, were uninsured or enrolled in Medicaid or Medicare, had an income of 250% or less of the US Federal Poverty Level, were living within the catchment area of a trial-associated clinic, and were overdue for screening (ie, Papanicolaou test ≥4 years ago or high-risk HPV test ≥6 years ago). Participants were randomly assigned (2:1) to receive a mailed HPV self-collection kit and assistance for scheduling a free screening appointment (intervention group) or to receive scheduling assistance alone (control group). Randomisation was conducted by county using permuted blocks of nine patients and assignment to group was not masked. Participants in the intervention group were mailed HPV self-collection kits to collect a cervical-vaginal sample and return it by mail for testing. Samples were tested with the Aptima HPV assay (Hologic, San Diego, CA, USA), and participants were informed of high-risk HPV results by telephone call. Trial staff made up to three telephone call attempts to provide scheduling assistance for in-clinic screening for all participants. The primary outcome was cervical cancer screening uptake (ie, attending an in-clinic screening appointment or testing negative for high-risk HPV with a returned self-collected sample) within 6 months of enrolment in the intention-to-treat population. This trial is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT02651883, and has been completed. Recruitment occurred between April 11, 2016, and Dec 16, 2019. 4256 women contacted the trial to participate, of whom 899 (21%) were eligible for inclusion and 697 (78%) returned consent forms. Of those who consented, 461 (66%) women were randomly assigned to the intervention group and 236 (34%) women were randomly assigned to the control group. We excluded 32 ineligible women post-randomisation, leaving 665 for primary analysis. Screening uptake was higher in the intervention group (317 [72%] of 438) than control group (85 [37%] of 227; risk ratio 1·93, 95% CI 1·62-2·31). Among intervention participants, 341 (78%) of 438 returned a self-collection kit. Three participants reported hurt or injury when using the self-collection kit; no participants withdrew due to adverse effects. Among under-screened women from low-income backgrounds, mailed HPV self-collection kits with scheduling assistance led to greater uptake of cervical cancer screening than scheduling assistance alone. At-home HPV self-collection testing has the potential to increase screening uptake among under-screened women. National Cancer Institute.

Impact of HPV vaccine hesitancy on cervical cancer in Japan: a modelling study

Funding for human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination in Japan began in 2010 for girls aged 12-16 years, with three-dose coverage initially reaching more than 70%. On June 14, 2013, 2 months after formal inclusion in Japan's national immunisation programme, proactive recommendations for the HPV vaccine were suspended following reports of adverse events since found to be unrelated to vaccination, but which were extensively covered in the media. Vaccine coverage subsequently dropped to less than 1% and has remained this low to date. We aimed to quantify the impact of this vaccine hesitancy crisis, and the potential health gains if coverage can be restored. In this modelling study, we used the Policy1-Cervix modelling platform. We adapted the model for Japan with use of data on HPV prevalence, screening practices and coverage, and cervical cancer incidence and mortality. We evaluated the expected number of cervical cancer cases and deaths over the lifetime of cohorts born from 1994 to 2007 in the context of the vaccine hesitancy crisis. We assessed a range of recovery scenarios from 2020 onwards, including a scenario in which routine coverage is restored to 70%, with 50% catch-up coverage for the missed cohorts (aged 13-20 years in 2020). To estimate the impact of the vaccine crisis to date, we also modelled a counterfactual scenario in which 70% coverage had been maintained in 12-year-olds from 2013 onwards. The vaccine crisis from 2013 to 2019 is predicted to result in an additional 24 600-27 300 cases and 5000-5700 deaths over the lifetime of cohorts born between 1994 and 2007, compared with if coverage had remained at around 70% since 2013. However, restoration of coverage in 2020, including catch-up vaccination for missed cohorts, could prevent 14 800-16 200 of these cases and 3000-3400 of these deaths. If coverage is not restored in 2020, an additional 3400-3800 cases and 700-800 deaths will occur over the lifetime of individuals who are 12 years old in 2020 alone. If the crisis continues, 9300-10 800 preventable deaths due to cervical cancer will occur in the next 50 years (2020-69). The HPV vaccine crisis to date is estimated to result in around 5000 deaths from cervical cancer in Japan. Many of these deaths could still be prevented if vaccination coverage with extended catch-up can be rapidly restored. National Health and Medical Research Council Australia Centre of Research Excellence in Cervical Cancer Control, Japan Society for the Promotion of Science.

Publisher

Elsevier BV

ISSN

2468-2667