Stephanie Blank

Trends in uterine cancer incidence and mortality: insights from a natural history model

Abstract Background Uterine cancer incidence and mortality are increasing, with concomitant disparities in outcomes between racial groups. Natural history modeling can evaluate risk factors, predict future trends, and simulate approaches to reducing mortality and disparities. Methods We designed a natural history model of uterine cancer using a multistage clonal expansion design. The model is informed by National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey, National Health Examination Survey, age, time period, birth cohort, and birth certificate data on reproductive histories and body mass index (BMI). We fit and calibrated the model to Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results data by race and ethnicity as well as histologic subgroup. We projected future incidence and estimated the degree of contribution of BMI, reproductive history, and competing hysterectomy to excess uterine cancer incidence. Results The model accurately replicated Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results incidence for endometrioid, nonendometrioid, and sarcoma subgroups for non-Hispanic Black and non-Hispanic White patients. For endometrioid, nonendometrioid, and sarcomas, BMI-attributable risks are greater for non-Hispanic White than for non-Hispanic Black patients; reproductive history–attributable risks are greater for non-Hispanic Black patients. Between 2018 and 2050, endometrioid incidence is projected to rise by 64.9% in non-Hispanic Black individuals and17.5% in non-Hispanic White individuals; the projected rise for the nonendometrioid subgroup is 41.4% in non-Hispanic Black individuals and 22.5% in non-Hispanic White individuals; the sarcoma incidence projected increase is 36% in non-Hispanic Black individuals and 29.2% in non-Hispanic White individuals. Conclusions Uterine cancer risk is substantially explained by reproductive history and BMI, with differences observed between non-Hispanic Black and non-Hispanic White individuals and future projections indicating perpetuation of disparities. Lower rates of hysterectomy and rising obesity rates will likely contribute to continued increases in uterine cancer incidence.

Influence of Genomic Landscape on Cancer Immunotherapy for Newly Diagnosed Ovarian Cancer: Biomarker Analyses from the IMagyn050 Randomized Clinical Trial

Abstract Purpose: To explore whether patients with BRCA1/2-mutated or homologous recombination deficient (HRD) ovarian cancers benefitted from atezolizumab in the phase III IMagyn050 (NCT03038100) trial. Patients and Methods: Patients with newly diagnosed ovarian cancer were randomized to either atezolizumab or placebo with standard chemotherapy and bevacizumab. Programmed death-ligand 1 (PD-L1) status of tumor-infiltrating immune cells (IC) was determined centrally (VENTANA SP142 assay). Genomic alterations, including deleterious BRCA1/2 alterations, genomic loss of heterozygosity (gLOH), tumor mutation burden (TMB), and microsatellite instability (MSI), were evaluated using the FoundationOne assay. HRD was defined as gLOH ≥ 16%, regardless of BRCA1/2 mutation status. Potential associations between progression-free survival (PFS) and genomic biomarkers were evaluated using standard correlation analyses and log-rank of Kaplan–Meier estimates. Results: Among biomarker-evaluable samples, 22% (234/1,050) harbored BRCA1/2 mutations and 46% (446/980) were HRD. Median TMB was low irrespective of BRCA1/2 or HRD. Only 3% (29/1,024) had TMB ≥10 mut/Mb, and 0.3% (3/1,022) were MSI-high. PFS was better in BRCA2-mutated versus BRCA2–non-mutated tumors and in HRD versus proficient tumors. PD-L1 positivity (≥1% expression on ICs) was associated with HRD but not BRCA1/2 mutations. PFS was not improved by adding atezolizumab in BRCA2-mutated or HRD tumors; there was a trend toward enhanced PFS with atezolizumab in BRCA1-mutated tumors. Conclusions: Most ovarian tumors have low TMB despite BRCA1/2 mutations or HRD. Neither BRCA1/2 mutation nor HRD predicted enhanced benefit from atezolizumab. This is the first randomized double-blind trial in ovarian cancer demonstrating that genomic instability triggered by BRCA1/2 mutation or HRD is not associated with improved sensitivity to immune checkpoint inhibitors. See related commentary by Al-Rawi et al., p. 1645

Projected Trends in the Incidence and Mortality of Uterine Cancer in the United States

Abstract Background: To develop a natural history model for uterine cancer calibrated to population-based incidence and mortality data to project future trends in the disease through 2050. Methods: We developed a state-transition microsimulation model of uterine cancer. The model begins at 18 years of age and simulates Black and White patients, includes transition states for precursor lesions, and separately models endometrioid and nonendometrioid tumors. The model was calibrated to population-based incidence and mortality data using parameter extrapolation. Results: The model closely fit population-based incidence and mortality data of uterine cancer. From 2020 to 2050, the incidence of uterine cancer is projected to increase in White women to 74.2 cases per 100,000 (compared with 57.7 cases per 100,000 in 2018) and increase to 86.9 per 100,000 (compared with 56.8 cases per 100,000 in 2018) in Black women. Among White women, incidence-based mortality will increase from 6.1 per 100,000 in 2018 to 11.2 per 100,000 in 2050, whereas incidence-based mortality in Black women will increase from 14.1 per 100,000 to 27.9 per 100,000. Endometrioid tumors are expected to increase considerably in both White and Black women; White women will experience only a slight increase in nonendometrioid tumors, whereas the incidence of these tumors will increase substantially in Black women. Conclusions: The incidence and mortality of uterine cancer are projected to increase substantially over the next three decades. Black women will experience a disproportionate increase in the disease. Impact: Projecting the incidence and mortality of uterine cancer can facilitate future cancer control efforts.

Durvalumab Plus Carboplatin/Paclitaxel Followed by Maintenance Durvalumab With or Without Olaparib as First-Line Treatment for Advanced Endometrial Cancer: The Phase III DUO-E Trial

PURPOSE Immunotherapy and chemotherapy combinations have shown activity in endometrial cancer, with greater benefit in mismatch repair (MMR)–deficient (dMMR) than MMR-proficient (pMMR) disease. Adding a poly(ADP-ribose) polymerase inhibitor may improve outcomes, especially in pMMR disease. METHODS This phase III, global, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial randomly assigned eligible patients with newly diagnosed advanced or recurrent endometrial cancer 1:1:1 to: carboplatin/paclitaxel plus durvalumab placebo followed by placebo maintenance (control arm); carboplatin/paclitaxel plus durvalumab followed by maintenance durvalumab plus olaparib placebo (durvalumab arm); or carboplatin/paclitaxel plus durvalumab followed by maintenance durvalumab plus olaparib (durvalumab + olaparib arm). The primary end points were progression-free survival (PFS) in the durvalumab arm versus control and the durvalumab + olaparib arm versus control. RESULTS Seven hundred eighteen patients were randomly assigned. In the intention-to-treat population, statistically significant PFS benefit was observed in the durvalumab (hazard ratio [HR], 0.71 [95% CI, 0.57 to 0.89]; P = .003) and durvalumab + olaparib arms (HR, 0.55 [95% CI, 0.43 to 0.69]; P < .0001) versus control. Prespecified, exploratory subgroup analyses showed PFS benefit in dMMR (HR [durvalumab v control], 0.42 [95% CI, 0.22 to 0.80]; HR [durvalumab + olaparib v control], 0.41 [95% CI, 0.21 to 0.75]) and pMMR subgroups (HR [durvalumab v control], 0.77 [95% CI, 0.60 to 0.97]; HR [durvalumab + olaparib v control] 0.57; [95% CI, 0.44 to 0.73]); and in PD-L1–positive subgroups (HR [durvalumab v control], 0.63 [95% CI, 0.48 to 0.83]; HR [durvalumab + olaparib v control], 0.42 [95% CI, 0.31 to 0.57]). Interim overall survival results (maturity approximately 28%) were supportive of the primary outcomes (durvalumab v control: HR, 0.77 [95% CI, 0.56 to 1.07]; P = .120; durvalumab + olaparib v control: HR, 0.59 [95% CI, 0.42 to 0.83]; P = .003). The safety profiles of the experimental arms were generally consistent with individual agents. CONCLUSION Carboplatin/paclitaxel plus durvalumab followed by maintenance durvalumab with or without olaparib demonstrated a statistically significant and clinically meaningful PFS benefit in patients with advanced or recurrent endometrial cancer.

A Study of Atezolizumab Versus Placebo in Combination With Paclitaxel, Carboplatin, and Bevacizumab in Participants With Newly-Diagnosed Stage III or Stage IV Ovarian, Fallopian Tube, or Primary Peritoneal Cancer

This is a Phase III, global, double-blind, 2-arm randomized study designed to compare the efficacy and safety of atezolizumab + paclitaxel + carboplatin + bevacizumab versus placebo + paclitaxel + carboplatin + bevacizumab. Study participants will have Stage 3 or 4 ovarian cancer (OC), fallopian tube cancer (FTC), or primary peritoneal cancer (PPC) with macroscopic residual disease postoperatively (i.e., after primary tumor reductive surgery) or who will undergo neoadjuvant therapy followed by interval surgery.