Necim Yalcin

Predictive Value of the CA-125 Elimination Rate Constant K (KELIM) in Predicting Progression-Free Survival and Overall Survival in Epithelial Ovarian Cancer

Background: It is crucial to predict the response to chemotherapy and identify prognostic markers for recurrence and survival in patients with epithelial ovarian cancer (EOC), in order to effectively manage patient care. The CA-125 elimination rate constant K (KELIM) has recently been developed as a means of assessing the chemotherapy response and has been tested mainly in patients enrolled in randomized controlled trials. The objective of this study was to investigate whether the KELIM score is a prognostic marker for progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS) in EOC, utilizing its role in predicting the chemotherapy response in real-life settings. Method: Demographic, surgical, and survival data of patients with EOC operated on in Antalya Training and Research Hospital between January 2015 and December 2021 were obtained from the electronic gynecological oncology clinic database system and analyzed retrospectively. Results: A total of 102 patients with EOC were included; 30 patients (29.4%) had a KELIM score ≥ 1 and 72 (70.6%) patients had a KELIM score < 1. In the group with a KELIM score < 1, recurrence and refractory disease occurred in 49 patients, while it was 11 patients in the group with a KELIM score ≥ 1 (p = 0.004). PFS was 12 months and 32 months in the groups with KELIM scores of <1 and ≥1, respectively (p = 0.012). There was no difference between groups regarding OS (p = 0.139). In the whole group, KELIM score (<1 vs. ≥1) and type of surgery (IDS vs. PDS) were found to be independent prognostic factors for PFS (RR = 0.44; 95%CI: 0.22–0.88; p = 0.021 and RR = 2.97; 95%CI: 1.76–5.01; p < 0.001, respectively). Conclusion: We found that a favorable KELIM score was associated with better PFS in all groups of patients undergoing surgery for EOC in a real-life setting. With the increasing number of studies, the KELIM score will play an important role in providing better guidance to clinicians at the initial presentation of patients and in subsequent treatment planning.

Prediction of Clavien Dindo Classification ≥ Grade III Complications After Epithelial Ovarian Cancer Surgery Using Machine Learning Methods

Background and Objectives: Ovarian cancer surgery requires multiple radical resections with a high risk of complications. The aim of this single-centre, retrospective study was to determine the best method for predicting Clavien–Dindo grade ≥ III complications using machine learning techniques. Material and Methods: The study included 179 patients who underwent surgery at the gynaecological oncology department of Antalya Training and Research Hospital between January 2015 and December 2020. The data were randomly split into training set n = 134 (75%) and test set n = 45 (25%). We used 49 predictors to develop the best algorithm. Mean absolute error, root mean squared error, correlation coefficients, Mathew’s correlation coefficient, and F1 score were used to determine the best performing algorithm. Cohens’ kappa value was evaluated to analyse the consistency of the model with real data. The relationship between these predicted values and the actual values were then summarised using a confusion matrix. True positive (TP) rate, False positive (FP) rate, precision, recall, and Area under the curve (AUC) values were evaluated to demonstrate clinical usability and classification skills. Results: 139 patients (77.65%) had no morbidity or grade I-II CDC morbidity, while 40 patients (22.35%) had grade III or higher CDC morbidity. BayesNet was found to be the most effective prediction model. No dominant parameter was observed in the Bayesian net importance matrix plot. The true positive (TP) rate was 76%, false positive (FP) rate was 15.6%, recall rate (sensitivity) was 76.9%, and overall accuracy was 82.2% A receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis was performed to estimate CDC grade ≥ III. AUC was 0.863 with a statistical significance of p < 0.001, indicating a high degree of accuracy. Conclusions: The Bayesian network model achieved the highest accuracy compared to all other models in predicting CDC Grade ≥ III complications following epithelial ovarian cancer surgery.

Defining the relationship between ovarian adult granulosa cell tumors and synchronous endometrial pathology: Does ovarian tumor size correlate with endometrial cancer?

Abstract Objective The main feature of adult granulosa cell tumors (AGCT) is their capacity to secrete hormones, with nearly all of them capable of synthesizing oestradiol. The primary goal of this study is to identify synchronized endometrial pathologies, particularly endometrial cancer, in AGCT patients who had undergone a hysterectomy. Materials and Methods The study cohort comprised retrospectively of 316 AGCT patients from 10 tertiary gynecological oncology centers. AGCT surgery consisted of bilateral salpingo‐oophorectomy, hysterectomy, peritoneal cytology, omentectomy, and the excision of any suspicious lesion. The median tumor size value was used to define the relationship between tumor size and endometrial cancer. The relationship between each value and endometrial cancer was evaluated. Results Endometrial intraepithelial neoplasia, or hyperplasia with complex atypia, was detected in 7.3% of patients, and endometrial cancer in 3.1% of patients. Age, menopausal status, tumor size, International Federation of Gynecology and Obstetrics stage, ascites, and CA‐125 level were not statistically significant factors to predict endometrial cancer. There was no endometrial cancer under the age of 40, and 97.8% of women diagnosed with endometrial hyperplasia were over the age of 40. During the menopausal period, the endometrial cancer risk was 4.5%. Developing endometrial cancer increased to 12.1% from 3.2% when the size of the tumor was >150 mm in menopausal patients ( p  = 0.036). Conclusion Endometrial hyperplasia, or cancer, occurs in approximately 30% of AGCT patients. Patients diagnosed with AGCT, especially those older than 40 years, should be evaluated for endometrial pathologies. There may be a relationship between tumor size and endometrial cancer, especially in menopausal patients.

Prognostic factors of adult granulosa cell tumors of the ovary: a Turkish retrospective multicenter study

To define the clinical, histopathological features and the prognostic factors affecting survival in patients with adult granulosa cell tumors of the ovary (AGCT). A 322 patients whose final pathologic outcome was AGCT treated at nine tertiary oncology centers between 1988 and 2021 participated in the study. The mean age of the patients was 51.3±11.8 years and ranged from 21 to 82 years. According to the International Federation of Gynecology and Obstetrics 2014, 250 (77.6%) patients were stage I, 24 (7.5%) patients were stage II, 20 (6.2%) patients were stage III, and 3 (7.8%) were stage IV. Lymphadenectomy was added to the surgical procedure in 210 (65.2%) patients. Lymph node involvement was noted in seven (3.3%) patients. Peritoneal cytology was positive in 19 (5.9%) patients, and 13 (4%) had metastases in the omentum. Of 285 patients who underwent hysterectomy, 19 (6.7%) had complex hyperplasia with atypia/endometrial intraepithelial neoplasia, and 8 (2.8%) had grade 1 endometrioid endometrial carcinoma. It was found that 93 (28.9%) patients in the study group received adjuvant treatment. Bleomycin, etoposide, cisplatin was the most commonly used chemotherapy protocol. The median follow-up time of the study group was 41 months (range, 1-276 months). It was noted that 34 (10.6%) patients relapsed during this period, and 9 (2.8%) patients died because of the disease. The entire cohort had a 5-year disease-free survival (DFS) of 86% and a 5-year disease-specific survival of 98%. Recurrences were observed only in the pelvis in 13 patients and the extra-abdominal region in 7 patients. The recurrence rate increased 6.168-fold in patients with positive peritoneal cytology (95% confidence interval [CI]=1.914-19.878; p=0.002), 3.755-fold in stage II-IV (95% CI=1.275-11.063; p=0.016), and 2.517-fold in postmenopausal women (95% CI=1.017-6.233; p=0.046) increased. In this study, lymph node involvement was detected in 3.3% of patients with AGCT. Therefore, it was concluded that lymphadenectomy can be avoided in primary surgical treatment. Positive peritoneal cytology, stage, and menopausal status were independent prognostic predictors of DFS.