Fulvio Ricceri

Understanding risk factors for endometrial cancer in young women

Abstract Background The American Cancer Society recommends physicians inform average-risk women about endometrial cancer risk on reaching menopause, but new diagnoses are rising fastest in women aged younger than 50 years. Educating these younger women about endometrial cancer risks requires knowledge of risk factors. However, endometrial cancer in young women is rare and challenging to study in single study populations. Methods We included 13 846 incident endometrial cancer patients (1639 aged younger than 50 years) and 30 569 matched control individuals from the Epidemiology of Endometrial Cancer Consortium. We used generalized linear models to estimate odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for 6 risk factors and endometrial cancer risk. We created a risk score to evaluate the combined associations and population attributable fractions for these factors. Results In younger and older women, we observed positive associations with body mass index and diabetes and inverse associations with age at menarche, oral contraceptive use, and parity. Current smoking was associated with reduced risk only in women aged 50 years and older (Phet < .01). Body mass index was the strongest risk factor (OR≥35 vs<25 kg/m2 = 5.57, 95% CI = 4.33 to 7.16, for ages younger than 50 years; OR≥35 vs<25 kg/m2 = 4.68, 95% CI = 4.30 to 5.09, for ages 50 years and older; Phet = .14). Possessing at least 4 risk factors was associated with approximately ninefold increased risk in women aged younger than 50 years and approximately fourfold increased risk in women aged 50 years and older (Phet < .01). Together, 59.1% of endometrial cancer in women aged younger than 50 years and 55.6% in women aged 50 years and older were attributable to these factors. Conclusions Our data confirm younger and older women share common endometrial cancer risk factors. Early educational efforts centered on these factors may help mitigate the rising endometrial cancer burden in young women.

Risk prediction models for endometrial cancer: development and validation in an international consortium

Abstract Background Endometrial cancer risk stratification may help target interventions, screening, or prophylactic hysterectomy to mitigate the rising burden of this cancer. However, existing prediction models have been developed in select cohorts and have not considered genetic factors. Methods We developed endometrial cancer risk prediction models using data on postmenopausal White women aged 45-85 years from 19 case-control studies in the Epidemiology of Endometrial Cancer Consortium (E2C2). Relative risk estimates for predictors were combined with age-specific endometrial cancer incidence rates and estimates for the underlying risk factor distribution. We externally validated the models in 3 cohorts: Nurses’ Health Study (NHS), NHS II, and the Prostate, Lung, Colorectal and Ovarian (PLCO) Cancer Screening Trial. Results Area under the receiver operating characteristic curves for the epidemiologic model ranged from 0.64 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.62 to 0.67) to 0.69 (95% CI = 0.66 to 0.72). Improvements in discrimination from the addition of genetic factors were modest (no change in area under the receiver operating characteristic curves in NHS; PLCO = 0.64 to 0.66). The epidemiologic model was well calibrated in NHS II (overall expected-to-observed ratio [E/O] = 1.09, 95% CI = 0.98 to 1.22) and PLCO (overall E/O = 1.04, 95% CI = 0.95 to 1.13) but poorly calibrated in NHS (overall E/O = 0.55, 95% CI = 0.51 to 0.59). Conclusions Using data from the largest, most heterogeneous study population to date (to our knowledge), prediction models based on epidemiologic factors alone successfully identified women at high risk of endometrial cancer. Genetic factors offered limited improvements in discrimination. Further work is needed to refine this tool for clinical or public health practice and expand these models to multiethnic populations.

Theoretical potential for endometrial cancer prevention through primary risk factor modification: Estimates from the EPIC cohort

Endometrial cancer (EC) incidence rates vary ~10‐fold worldwide, in part due to variation in EC risk factor profiles. Using an EC risk model previously developed in the European EPIC cohort, we evaluated the prevention potential of modified EC risk factor patterns and whether differences in EC incidence between a European population and low‐risk countries can be explained by differences in these patterns. Predicted EC incidence rates were estimated over 10 years of follow‐up for the cohort before and after modifying risk factor profiles. Risk factors considered were: body mass index (BMI, kg/m2), use of postmenopausal hormone therapy (HT) and oral contraceptives (OC) (potentially modifiable); and, parity, ages at first birth, menarche and menopause (environmentally conditioned, but not readily modifiable). Modeled alterations in BMI (to all ≤23 kg/m2) and HT use (to all non‐HT users) profiles resulted in a 30% reduction in predicted EC incidence rates; individually, longer duration of OC use (to all ≥10 years) resulted in a 42.5% reduction. Modeled changes in not readily modifiable exposures (i.e., those not contributing to prevention potential) resulted in ≤24.6% reduction in predicted EC incidence. Women in the lowest decile of a risk score based on the evaluated exposures had risk similar to a low risk countries; however, this was driven by relatively long use of OCs (median = 23 years). Our findings support avoidance of overweight BMI and of HT use as prevention strategies for EC in a European population; OC use must be considered in the context of benefits and risks.

Thyroid hormones and epithelial ovarian cancer risk and survival: results from the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition study

Abstract Background Thyroid-stimulating hormone (TSH) and thyroid hormones (free triiodothyronine [fT3] and free thyroxine [fT4]) may influence cancer outcomes, but evidence for ovarian cancer is limited. Methods We conducted a nested case–control study comparing 578 epithelial ovarian cancer (EOC) cases with matched controls within the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC). To examine associations between circulating TSH, fT3, and fT4 levels and EOC risk, we estimated risk ratios (RRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) per SD using conditional logistic regression. Among cases, we evaluated all-cause and EOC-specific survival by prediagnostic hormone levels. Hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals were calculated using multivariable Cox regression. We also estimated covariate-adjusted restricted mean survival time (RMST) and survival probabilities at 5 and 10 years. Results Thyroid hormones were not associated with EOC risk (RR [95% CI] per SD increase: TSH = 0.99 [0.87 to 1.12], fT3 = 1.12 [0.70 to 1.79], and fT4 = 1.08 [0.56 to 2.07]) levels. However, higher TSH levels were associated with better survival (HR [95% CI] per SD: all-cause death = 0.90 [0.82 to 0.99], EOC-specific = 0.88 [0.79 to 0.97]), whereas higher fT4 levels were associated with worse survival (all-cause = 1.10 [1.00 to 1.22], EOC-specific = 1.17 [1.05 to 1.30]), but no association for fT3. RMST and survival probabilities showed similar patterns: for TSH, 10-year RMST and survival increased from 5.3 years and 42.2% in Quartile 1 (Q1) to 6.4 years and 50.7% in Q4. Conversely, for fT4, 10-year RMST declined from 5.6 years (Q1) to 5.1 years Q4, and survival from 46.3% to 37.8%. Conclusion TSH and thyroid hormones might not affect ovarian cancer risk. However, high fT4 and low TSH concentrations may be associated with poorer survival. Further evaluation is suggested in other populations.

Hypertension and Risk of Endometrial Cancer: A Pooled Analysis in the Epidemiology of Endometrial Cancer Consortium (E2C2)

Abstract Background: The incidence rates of endometrial cancer are increasing, which may partly be explained by the rising prevalence of obesity, an established risk factor for endometrial cancer. Hypertension, another component of metabolic syndrome, is also increasing in prevalence, and emerging evidence suggests that it may be associated with the development of certain cancers. The role of hypertension independent of other components of metabolic syndrome in the etiology of endometrial cancer remains unclear. In this study, we evaluated hypertension as an independent risk factor for endometrial cancer and whether this association is modified by other established risk factors. Methods: We included 15,631 endometrial cancer cases and 42,239 controls matched on age, race, and study-specific factors from 29 studies in the Epidemiology of Endometrial Cancer Consortium. We used multivariable unconditional logistic regression models to estimate ORs and 95% confidence intervals (CI) to evaluate the association between hypertension and endometrial cancer and whether this association differed by study design, race/ethnicity, body mass index, diabetes status, smoking status, or reproductive factors. Results: Hypertension was associated with an increased risk of endometrial cancer (OR, 1.14; 95% CI, 1.09–1.19). There was significant heterogeneity by study design (Phet < 0.01), with a stronger magnitude of association observed among case–control versus cohort studies. Stronger associations were also noted for pre-/perimenopausal women and never users of postmenopausal hormone therapy. Conclusions: Hypertension is associated with endometrial cancer risk independently from known risk factors. Future research should focus on biologic mechanisms underlying this association. Impact: This study provides evidence that hypertension may be an independent risk factor for endometrial cancer.