Freddie Bray

Ovarian cancer today and tomorrow: A global assessment by world region and Human Development Index using GLOBOCAN 2020

AbstractOvarian cancer remains to have relatively poor prognosis particularly in low‐resourced settings. It is therefore important to continually examine the burden of ovarian cancer to identify areas of disparities. Our study aims to provide an overview of the global burden of ovarian cancer using the GLOBOCAN 2020 estimates by country, world region, and Human Development Index (HDI) levels, as well as the predicted future burden by the year 2040 by HDI. Age‐standardized incidence and mortality rates for ovarian cancer in 185 countries were calculated by country, world region, and for the four‐tier HDI. The number of new cases and deaths were projected for the year 2040 based on demographic projections by HDI category. Approximately 314 000 new ovarian cancer cases and 207 000 deaths occurred in 2020. There were marked geographic variations in incidence rates, with the highest rates observed in European countries with very high HDI and low rates were found in African countries within the lowest HDI group. Comparable mortality rates were observed across the four‐tier HDI. Relative to 2020 estimates, our projection for 2040 indicates approximately 96% and 100% increase in new ovarian cancer cases and deaths, respectively, among low HDI countries compared to 19% and 28% in very high HDI countries. Our study highlights the disproportionate current and future burden of ovarian cancer in countries with lower HDI levels, calling for global action to reduce the burden and inequality of ovarian cancer in access to quality cancer care and treatment.

Geographic and temporal variations in the incidence of vulvar and vaginal cancers

AbstractVulvar and vaginal cancers are relatively rare cancers, together responsible for less than 1% of the global cancer incidence among women in 2018. The majority of vaginal cancers and a lesser proportion of vulvar cancers are associated with HPV, with rising incidence rates of vulvar cancer observed in younger women, possibly due to an increased prevalence of high‐risk HPV types. This report assesses recent international variations in the incidence rates of vulvar and vaginal cancer derived from high‐quality data from population‐based cancer registries in 68 countries, and further assesses time trends for selected longer‐term series in eight countries (Australia, China, Colombia, India, Norway, Slovakia, the U.S., and the U.K.) over the period 1983 to 2012. We observed a 30‐fold variation in the recorded incidence rates of vulvar cancer in contrast with the threefold variation for vaginal cancer. We also observed a rising incidence of vulvar cancer in Australia, Norway and the U.K., and Slovakia, with a more rapid rise in the rates seen in women aged < 60 years at diagnosis. The annual percentage change over the most recent decade varied from 1.7% in Norway to 4.1% in Slovakia. The increases are largely confined to younger women and are likely linked to generational changes in sexual behaviour (earlier age at sexual debut and increasing transmission of HPV among cohorts born 1940 to 1950 and thereafter. Vaginal cancer incidence rates, in contrast, were lower and more stable, despite the higher HPV‐attributable fraction relative to vulvar cancer. Irrespective of the trends, an increasing number of women are predicted to be diagnosed worldwide with both cancer types in future decades as population ageing and growth continues. The promise of high‐coverage HPV vaccination will likely counter this rising burden, but the impact may take a number of decades.

The European response to the WHO call to eliminate cervical cancer as a public health problem

AbstractThe age‐standardised incidence of cervical cancer in Europe varies widely by country (between 3 and 25/100000 women‐years) in 2018. Human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccine coverage is low in countries with the highest incidence and screening performance is heterogeneous among European countries. A broad group of delegates of scientific professional societies and cancer organisations endorse the principles of the WHO call to eliminate cervical cancer as a public health problem, also in Europe. All European nations should, by 2030, reach at least 90% HPV vaccine coverage among girls by the age of 15 years and also boys, if cost‐effective; they should introduce organised population‐based HPV‐based screening and achieve 70% of screening coverage in the target age group, providing also HPV testing on self‐samples for nonscreened or underscreened women; and to manage 90% of screen‐positive women. To guide member states, a group of scientific professional societies and cancer organisations engage to assist in the rollout of a series of concerted evidence‐based actions. European health authorities are requested to mandate a group of experts to develop the third edition of European Guidelines for Quality Assurance of Cervical Cancer prevention based on integrated HPV vaccination and screening and to monitor the progress towards the elimination goal. The occurrence of the COVID‐19 pandemic, having interrupted prevention activities temporarily, should not deviate stakeholders from this ambition. In the immediate postepidemic phase, health professionals should focus on high‐risk women and adhere to cost‐effective policies including self‐sampling.

Cervical cancer burden in Latin America and the Caribbean: Where are we?

In May 2018, the World Health Organization (WHO) called for the elimination of cervical cancer. To monitor this initiative, we examined cervical cancer incidence and mortality in the Latin America and Caribbean (LAC) region using GLOBOCAN 2018, Cancer Incidence in Five Continents Series, and the WHO Mortality Database. We estimated the number of cases and age‐standardized rates (ASRs) for cervical cancer incidence and mortality for 2018. We also presented the ASRs for recorded cervical cancer incidence from the period 2008 to 2012. We calculated annual rates and analyzed trends in cervical cancer incidence and mortality for all ages combined and for the following age groups: 0–29, 30–49, 50–64 and 65+. Finally, we calculated the estimated average annual percentage change in incidence and mortality rates for the past 10 years. In 2018, an estimated 56,000 new cervical cancer cases and 28,000 cervical cancer deaths occurred among women in LAC with great variations between subregions and countries/territories. Overall, trends in cervical cancer incidence and mortality have decreased over the past decade; however, the rates are still above the elimination threshold of 4 per 100,000 in most LAC countries/territories. Despite the encouraging trends observed, achieving the elimination of cervical cancer in the region still requests substantial political commitment and economic effort. Population‐based cancer registries are critical in monitoring the elimination initiative.

Age‐specific burden of cervical cancer associated with HIV: A global analysis with a focus on sub‐Saharan Africa

AbstractHIV substantially worsens human papillomavirus (HPV) carcinogenicity and contributes to an important population excess of cervical cancer, particularly in sub‐Saharan Africa (SSA). We estimated HIV‐ and age‐stratified cervical cancer burden at a country, regional and global level in 2020. Proportions of cervical cancer (a) diagnosed in women living with HIV (WLHIV), and (b) attributable to HIV, were calculated using age‐specific estimates of HIV prevalence (UNAIDS) and relative risk. These proportions were validated against empirical data and applied to age‐specific cervical cancer incidence (GLOBOCAN 2020). HIV was most important in SSA, where 24.9% of cervical cancers were diagnosed in WLHIV, and 20.4% were attributable to HIV (vs 1.3% and 1.1%, respectively, in the rest of the world). In all world regions, contribution of HIV to cervical cancer was far higher in younger women (as seen also in empirical series). For example, in Southern Africa, where more than half of cervical cancers were diagnosed in WLHIV, the HIV‐attributable fraction decreased from 86% in women ≤34 years to only 12% in women ≥55 years. The absolute burden of HIV‐attributable cervical cancer (approximately 28 000 cases globally) also shifted toward younger women: in Southern Africa, 63% of 5341 HIV‐attributable cervical cancer occurred in women <45 years old, compared to only 17% of 6901 non‐HIV‐attributable cervical cancer. Improved quantification of cervical cancer burden by age and HIV status can inform cervical cancer prevention efforts in SSA, including prediction of the impact of WLHIV‐targeted vs general population approaches to cervical screening, and impact of HIV prevention.

Cancer inequalities in incidence and mortality in the State of São Paulo, Brazil 2001–17

AbstractBackgroundCancer disparities exist between and within countries; we sought to compare cancer‐specific incidence and mortality according to area‐level socioeconomic status (SES) in the State of São Paulo, Brazil.MethodsCancer cases diagnosed 2003–2017 in the Barretos region and 2001–2015 in the municipality of São Paulo were obtained from the respective cancer registries. Corresponding cancer deaths were obtained from a Brazilian public government database. Age‐standardized rates for all cancer combined and the six most common cancers were calculated by SES quartiles.ResultsThere were 14,628 cancer cases and 7513 cancer deaths in Barretos, and 472,712 corresponding cases and 194,705 deaths in São Paulo. A clear SES‐cancer gradient was seen in São Paulo, with rates varying from 188.4 to 333.1 in low to high SES areas, respectively. There was a lesser social gradient for mortality, with rates in low to high SES areas ranging from 86.4 to 98.0 in Barretos, and from 99.2 to 100.1 in São Paulo. The magnitude of the incidence rates rose markedly with increasing SES in São Paulo city for colorectal, lung, female breast, and prostate cancer. Conversely, both cervical cancer incidence and mortality rose with lower levels of SES in both regions.ConclusionsA clear SES association was seen for cancers of the prostate, female breast, colorectum, and lung for São Paulo. This study offers a better understanding of the cancer incidence and mortality profile according to SES within a highly populated Brazilian state.