David Goldgar

Cancer Risks Associated With TP53 Pathogenic Variants: Maximum Likelihood Analysis of Extended Pedigrees for Diagnosis of First Cancers Beyond the Li-Fraumeni Syndrome Spectrum

PURPOSE Establishing accurate age-related penetrance figures for the broad range of cancer types that occur in individuals harboring a pathogenic germline variant in the TP53 gene is essential to determine the most effective clinical management strategies. These figures also permit optimal use of cosegregation data for classification of TP53 variants of unknown significance. Penetrance estimation can easily be affected by bias from ascertainment criteria, an issue not commonly addressed by previous studies. MATERIALS AND METHODS We performed a maximum likelihood penetrance estimation using full pedigree data from a multicenter study of 146 TP53-positive families, incorporating adjustment for the effect of ascertainment and population-specific background cancer risks. The analysis included pedigrees from Australia, Spain, and United States, with phenotypic information for 4,028 individuals. RESULTS Core Li-Fraumeni syndrome (LFS) cancers (breast cancer, adrenocortical carcinoma, brain cancer, osteosarcoma, and soft tissue sarcoma) had the highest hazard ratios of all cancers analyzed in this study. The analysis also detected a significantly increased lifetime risk for a range of cancers not previously formally associated with TP53 pathogenic variant status, including colorectal, gastric, lung, pancreatic, and ovarian cancers. The cumulative risk of any cancer type by age 50 years was 92.4% (95% CI, 82.2 to 98.3) for females and 59.7% (95% CI, 39.9 to 81.3) for males. Females had a 63.3% (95% CI, 35.6 to 90.1) cumulative risk of developing breast cancer by age 50 years. CONCLUSION The results from maximum likelihood analysis confirm the known high lifetime risk for the core LFS-associated cancer types providing new risk estimates and indicate significantly increased lifetime risks for several additional cancer types. Accurate cancer risk estimates will help refine clinical recommendations for TP53 pathogenic variant carriers and improve TP53 variant classification.

Classification of variants of uncertain significance in BRCA1 and BRCA2 using personal and family history of cancer from individuals in a large hereditary cancer multigene panel testing cohort

Genetic testing of individuals often results in identification of genomic variants of unknown significance (VUS). Multiple lines of evidence are used to help determine the clinical significance of these variants. We analyzed ~138,000 individuals tested by multigene panel testing (MGPT). We used logistic regression to predict carrier status based on personal and family history of cancer. This was applied to 4644 tested individuals carrying 2383 BRCA1/2 variants to calculate likelihood ratios informing pathogenicity for each. Heterogeneity tests were performed for specific classes of variants defined by in silico predictions. Twenty-two variants labeled as VUS had odds of >10:1 in favor of pathogenicity. The heterogeneity analysis found that among variants in functional domains that were predicted to be benign by in silico tools, a significantly higher proportion of variants were estimated to be pathogenic than previously indicated; that missense variants outside of functional domains should be considered benign; and that variants predicted to create de novo donor sites were also largely benign. The evidence presented here supports the use of personal and family history from MGPT in the classification of VUS and will be integrated into ongoing efforts to provide large-scale multifactorial classification.